Member Info for devonplay

Hi Mike, I did say I didn't think I'd be saying it, but I do take a very long term view, so I'd expect to be holding these for at least a decade. But, you are quite right, you should always take advantage of any weakness. I'll leave it to readers discrection if I meant adding "now" or when I see an opportunity again There's always an opportunity. As private investors we should never be in a rush, it's a big advanage we have.

"So the worry around the sp now I’m guessing is if the creditors agree to take some equity I’m the new co as payment? "
They are likely to have to take equity, as I believe the cash element will be over subscribed.
On broader note, we still don;t know what the markets reactiont to the combined business will be, we only have PMO's price today as an indicator. However accurate that might or might not be.
- sorry for the reply ;)

You like math Jennifer, how far do you think you've need to discount £150m to raise $2b? haha

"fire him and block the merger"
I agree, they've handled the main stakeholders badly, but you've got a deal that looks like it's been structured by creditors, and in 5 weeks time they get to give notice they want their money back. If that occured a RI is never going to surfice. What's changed is the creditors appetite for supporting the Board (and company), and they can't replace them. Only shareholders can, while this has been going on for 6 months, no one has stepped forward to try and push that change.
So like it or not, a partial payment of debt doesn't appear to be what creditors want and they don't also appear to belive in the long term viability of the debt burden. They appear to want their money out, they have a mechanism to do that and the company doesn't have enough equity in it's cap table to discount deeper enought to raise $2b

You get the feeling this has been very over sold. I'm not complaining, even if it's been a pain, but there appears to be this inherent dislike of all things retail and that offers an opportunity for contrarians. I didn't think I'd be saying this, but I'm considering adding. To this, New Day and the Very Group. It's only rivalled in my attentions by regional commercial property and it's attatched 40% discount to NAV. If NNR's 3% discounts are indicative, and there's no a fat tail of discount pain in their last reach sales, then bargains abound....when have we heard that before! LOL Still it's worth a deep mull.

John, you are becoming almost a National Treasure with your updates!
I was thinking the other day about Elementis, the former Harrison Crosfield
https://www.encyclopedia.com/books/politics-and-business-magazines/harrisons-crosfield-plc
They were once big players in the palm oil game, I bought them (and still hold them) as they made their way in the more general chemical sector. Their history is quite interesting. I thought you might enjoy it.

LOL It was a genuine question, have you?

LOL, have you decided against the letter about the 82m shares as well?

"I am softening to this deal"
That's good, because I doubt there's much of an alternative......

Good advice from the IC.

"If PMO does not reflect oil prices anymore I'll be shifting elsewhere. "
That's a really interesting statement, because I've been thinking about that today. I suspect it's going to suffer from dislocation - it's not going to follow oil up, but it might down.
Oil is obviously important to the business, but until it's resolved it's funding issue, it's not going move it...unless oil does something that none of us are expecting in the short term.

"Why was everything rosy a month ago only to go tits up."
Simply, it think it's because the Board thought they could bring the creditors around with the help of Asia Research and Capital Management . They put too much emphasis on thay most active stakeholder, that relationship, and missed they were taking the others with them.

"I don’t get how making the company issue more shares to cover their own short is showing much support for the company?"
Because, as I remember it, the shares bought 2 things: it put their shortt position back in line with their long position hedge and it ensure they supported the news PMO strategy, those were both benefits to the company.
In fact, I think they wanted the original deal to go through, and when the realised it wasn't they tried to auction off 50% of their long debt position. That's why it's likely the rescue deal goes through becuase the creditors haven't been able to agree on an alternative. If it doesn't go through, and creditors are running in different directions that's going to be choas for the company as it only requires one of them to pull the plug and the whole this could collapse.

* unlikely no one / anyone

"Asia Research and Capital Management " on that subject we know they were paid, via those discounted shares, to manage their short position and support the PMO plan. What they did as part of the Creditor Comittee is specualtion as far I can tell - I haven't seen anything that suggest they didn't support the PMO plan, in fact them trying to unload their debt suggest to me they did support. But now, my guess is all options are off the table and they see the rescue as the only way forward.
If anyone has knowledge about how they voted on the Creditor Comittee, that would be very interesting.

They might, but it's very unlikely.If you look at the time line, they've been trying find a solution since the first covenenet breach in June, so it's likely they will think of this as the last option before administration. In most cases that's the last thing anyone wants. Admin. It's messy, uncertain and all the rest. I think it's been very publically telegraphed that creditors have lost confidence, so you have to ask, as an alternative to their deal, who'd step forward and give them an alternative exit?
This things been in play for months, that's why I think it's unlikely no one will step foward. Only my opinion of course.

It sound idyllic! I've reminded you of your losses when you started calling me names.
It's not an easy life doing this, but I've been doing it for a very long time, full time.
I wouldn't encourage anyone, and I said last night, before you called me stupid, or what ever words you used, then for most people IT's at the core of your portfolio, and the occasional dabble round the edge is the best strategy.
As you've seen, with PMO, it's very easy to get caught out...and we all do get caught out! Mine was share consolidation 1000>1 I had 990 very expenive shares. Poof like that they were gone. Oh yes, your little crack about diversified portfolio...it's the best defence you have against the pro's. That, and not having to report to anyone. Good luck with your masonary.

The thing that draws attention is if you point out that it might be a concerted effort to stifle other's posting/reading comments with dissenting views to the person flinging the abuse around.
That way the regualator might consider it some form of market abuse to deceive retail investors.
I don't know about your experience, but when the naming calling etc starts it usually not one peron, but several - hence, the concerted. If the site, and it's Compliance Officer, don't look into that when it's been copied to the regulator then it's frankly very poor.

Then you know what to do if he does it again. Complain here cc the email to the regulator.
Market Abuse & Intimidation is a good heading, it pushes at least 2 off their buttons LOL

"Don't say we have to wait for listing just give a reasoned answer"
But you do have to wait for the listing as you don't know what discount the market is going to apply to the cash flow and decommisioning costs of this sector.
The only alternative is to use the share price today as an indication of what the market believes there shares are worth: 14-15p post deal/rescue.