RE: $6.58 billion25 Oct 2020 22:04
I've said this before, but one of the most worrying things is there's dissent amongst the creditors.
By that I mean, they can neither reach a consensus over the deal or subsequent refinancing if it fails.
That could leave the company in a horrible limbo situation. Neither a wayforward or deal about it's future financing.
We've seem a bit of that so far, haven't we? Very limited support for the deal. I guess we can't be sure of that. That's why I think the next test date for the cov's could be interesting. Possibly illuminationg over how much consensus exists.
It's always possible they could refinance, or provide an extension, but it feels very, very unlikely. I mean, really how likely could it be?
The NewCo deal has the creditors finger prints all over it, I can't imagine that it won't either go through with shareholder blessing or get walked through by the Board and creditors.
But as you say, anything is possible in theory, that's why these situations are quite fascinating.
Excluding hedge funds it's a relatively small community, so I guess they all know each other and work together pretty often, so it's likely the Creditor Committee has a good idea of what's going to float before it's goes to a vote. That's why I think it will get the creditor 75% acceptance.
Creditors all running in different directions would be very difficult indeed. That would be a nightmare for the company I would imagine.