Member Info for devonplay

It's a discussion board Tex, I'm enjoying the discourse.
Spamming hardly.
Hidden agenda? LOL How can there be a hidden agenda? I've been quiet clear in my position.
Don't you really mean, you don't agree with me and don't want to hear an alternative opinion?
- simple answer don't read it.

Yes, I know you was, but you have to take the lowest estimate into considertion, if you don't how do you think about downside risk? How do you control risk?
Why should their outrageously pessimistic case be taken as the likely figure? Well, you could look at the long term chart, it's been in declince since the high of Feb 2011, or you could consider we are in the worst economic position of a generation..and the list goes on.
The more sensible question might be, why should you be outrageously optimistic?
Maybe you could argue, because there's strenght in the present share price....except there isn't, it looks weak and it feels weak too.
"PMO have some very good producing assets" but they strangley haven't been enough to satisfy credtors about the future of the company, and as one of the other commentators on here has pointed out before, they've been looking at the future very closely for most of the year...and you have to presume, that's why they've put the rescue deal together.

So if we apply the worst case Enquest model:
22.75/5b
Enquest worst case scenerio 1.5b
- well, step forward the guy who said he was waiting for 8p. We can see why now if he's a pessimist..

You appear to have missed this part:
"Even applying the values of Premier’s least-loved peer—Enquest’s deliberately late-life barrels—the newco’s market cap would be in a $1.5-2.2bn range." Ouch!
So, if the market is pessimistic, that could imply further downside. Double ouch!!

They get a vote after the creditors approve the deal (or not), they vote first.
Credtors approve the deal, shareholders bless it (or not).
If the deal doesn't get voted through, the rescue deal put together by the creditors, then they company faces the possibility of a credit default and what that could entail.
If the creditors approve it, but the shareholders vote against it, the Directors can technically still ease the deal forward if they believe the company faces insolvency. The withdrawal of credit.
PMO has already breached it credit covenant, which got a furlough until the first week in November, what happens then and what extention is given is yet to be outlined.
If there's no alternative financing arrangement in place, then you have to ask why would they vote against it?

You provided it your self Rookie , want me to explain is again? Analysts projection 2,6b
Using your figures;
5.5% of 5B gives us a share price of around 28p per share
Using the analysts projection 14-15.
What's the share be averaging 14-15p.
Can it be any more easy to understand?

"5.5% of 5B gives us a share price of around 28p per share?"
OR of 2,6b c14-15p. Remind me, what's the price averaging out again?
Maths hey!! LOL

We live in hope.
- you need hope when it comes to SGI.

"is it better for the SP to be lower so they can offer a lower price?"
- it's a rescue deal. When a company needs one of those, it's share price reflects it's difficult position.

LOL yeah, they can feel the doubt seeping in.
You can always tell.

"There are so many valuations of newco... "
New a truer word.
But, investing is about working with educated certainty, where as gambling is rolling the dice and keeping your fingers crossed.
You'd have to belive the market is mispricing this by a magnitude not to belive the lower valuation.
The alternative is a gamble.
I know, it's the MM's keeping the price down, but then why ever worry about Shorters if the MM's are all powerful? Or could it be the market is pricing this correctly, and inline with the 2b valuation....

You can just look back and do your own research, but it was early on after the news first broke. I think he may had been quoted in either a Reuter's article or Metro article. I'm pretty sure it was the Reuters article. I'm surprised you think any different, as the present trading implies that value, more than the billions more, that some believe. But as you said, you've sunk a few hundred thousand into this....so you must be clear in your own mind of the value. I just made a note of the valuations and thought better of invesing in an over levereged companies equity. Why worry what others think if you've already made your mind up, or start googling if you can feel the doubt setting in.

It's from a report/press commentary provided by an oil analyst. It's been posted here previously.
It's the implied valuation driving the share price today.

'My English is not so good. I am a Fugu chef from Fukuoka'
Almost as believable as the market cap for the combined new entity being anthing in excess of 3b. Think more like 2.6.
LOL Still, it gave me a laugh.

DIVI.L suggesting it might triple over the next few years;
" The second largest is Materials, which includes several miners, including companies like Kenmare that we believe could triple their dividend over the next few years"

Maybe a classic buy on the rumour, sell on the fact....dangerous moment to be speculating, you could end up with a reversal and be caught out again by that double digit spread it often embraces.

"I still don’t understand how ARCM and other such companies can be allowed to loan money and then short the stock of the company with the loan. "
When wondering about that, you also have to also ask yourself if they couldn't use a risk mitigation strategy would all lenders be willing to lend to a high risk/distressed business like PMO without much hight rates of interest? For sellers of the debt they would have to discount further to exit, and that has remifications for the company , so it's debt is could be trading at rock bottom price to increase the yield for new buyers.

"Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas." - Paul Samuelson

"Petra has slid all the way from Dec 16th 2016."
That's a couple of years less than PMO, it's been in decline since it's Feb' 2011 high LOL

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-petra-diamonds-restructuring/petra-diamonds-shares-slump-on-debt-for-equity-deal-idUKKBN2750RE