Member Info for devonplay

"have you ever taken a look at jadestome petroleum?"
No, I don't really do oilers unless they've got a debt instrument that secures me ahead of other investors, and then only when the bond looks over distressed. I've never been able to see the attraction if I'm honest. Too many of them never deliver, there's more fun to be had in other ways if your going to lose the money LOL

"Being nosey Devon but how did you get involved in start ups?"
I have pretty simple approach, I like to cut my teeth through volume at a cheap price, so I started off buying/exploring through Seedrs and Crowdcube. Over those, 2 I have a portfolio of something like 80 start-up, from there, and once I'd got some experience I looked up a local angel network. The benefit of this approach as I gambled very little on Seedrs/CrowdCube and saw a lots of action. The angel network, I'm in, gets sniffy if you invest less than £10k per company and you've got to expect only 1 in 16 will make it, so experiece acquired cheap isn't a bad strategy.
I think the same applies to Bonds, I used WiseAlpha as a learning vehicle, as you buy notes in a bond for £100, where as buying the actual bond, if it's not listed on ORB (the LSE's retail market for bonds) can cost you at least £100k per position. I've got something like 60 or 70 bond notes over there, again, it's a lot less than having 1 position going wrong. To some extent you can do the same in listed equities by learning with invetment trust. You get a fund manager etc for 1% to show you how the market works.

"Have to say I’ve completely changed my mind on this tonight as I’ve dug a bit deeper, I don’t think this deal is as bad as I first thought. I agree with Jen, I really think 50p is a possibility within 18months and $50 + oil"
Maybe, I would avoid getting too carried away and betting the house on it. If you want, let it run, but also think about trying to invest in something that will keep in the game if this one doesn't turn out as you'd expect. A great investor once said 'if it's exciting you are doing it all wrong" LOL It's supposed to be boring, but profitable LOL

"Totally agree - I have a long term portfolio with blue chip , dividends paying stocks and a mixture of bonds , started 30 years ago."
I do the same Henry, I mix in start-ups as well as developer loans. My speculative portfolio is in fixed income. My speculative stuff is mainly senior secured, but certainly not investment grade, if it all worked out it gives me a YTM of around 70% LOL. I think it's fair to say, I'm not expecting them to all work out LOL

It's certainly not easy! I wouldn't be put off, it's still a good route to wealth. I would just avoid single stock until you've had a few years in the market. I still use monthly saving plans to diversify some of the risk away and I do this full time as a private investor. Nothing wrong with a bit of speculation, but for most people investment trusts make much more sense. Of course, only my opinion. Any way, good luck with it, there'smore to life than this game.

To be honest Jennifer, I there's better risk return to be had in other places. I bought some Matalan the other day. Matalan 6.75% 2023.
Yield c10%, YTM c30%
I think that was a better investment
I'm not really interested in short term specualtion. PM01 falls into that camp for me. I sold out at c75% for a small profit equivilent to buying at par under the revised terms. More than anything, I sold because there were just too many moving parts to be confident. That risk still remains.
I've come to the conclusion that PMO1 is mainly owned by institutions and they have got the price right. You know what they say about debt investors don't you? That's the clever money, so I doubt it's going to be a simple win. Good luck if you follow that trade, they don't always get it right, the prices lag behind sometimes and the rest. There's been some discussion I've seen today on the debt interest, some views that they'll consider is draw down, as it will be discounted off the offer. As ever, speculation until we get the Prospectus.

"Yep noticed there low production costs, but if I’m honest, I’m swaying more to saying yes to this after now. Not over the moon about it but I do agree that with oil back at $50-60 there is room for growth!"
Rookie, may I make a suggestion? If Jennife is right (and I'm wrong), take some of the difference and diversify. It's going to reduce your over all returns, and loss, you'll sleep a lot better at night LOL

It's my pleasure Kenni. Contra to all the times I've been called a shorter/paid to post on this thread!
I'm actually interested in corporate fiance and wanted to see if there would be anything I could gleen from the discussion about the potential opportunity in PMO1. I very rarely short. In fact, I'm nearly always long and still own the first shares I bought at 17, a mere 33 years ago LOL That really is a long position ! LOL. LTH.

Have I got these figures correct because to me even our combined group looks a whole lot healthier than this and should easily demand a 5B mcap?
I don't believe that's going to be the mcap, but it's all open to speculation. Hence my arguement is the only indicative clue we have is the share price now the terms of the deal are know. That could be accurate or not. Who really knows?

"F them. How can I cast vote no? Anyone?"
If you hold your shares in paper, certificated, you will get a voting (proxy) card, if it's via a stockbroker nominee it will depend on your broker, not all of them offer voting. You will have to contact them and ask. In lots of case they vote on your behalf, or don't vote, in favour of what the Board & Company are recommending. The alternative is to hold your shares in a Crest account. But there's a very limited amount of options for those as far as I can see.
It's a reality, but most recommended deal go through.

Either Directors or Creditors can petiton the Court for Administration, Shareholders don't get to vote on it.

"Surely In administration the assets would be sold off for a lot less and creditors because,e even worse off?"
No, there's a deal on the table, they would just re-engineer it in someway, as Jennifer says they may just pre-pack it through administration and swap debt for equity, then do the deal on basically the same terms. The only real casualties would be the existing shareholders, who could either become even more diluted or just written out of the cap tatble fulls top. Administrators, once a court approves the action, can be picked by the creditors and their main task is to protect creditors and to protect business continuity. If there's a deal, and there is one, it's most likely to get accepted. If could result in extr costs for the creditor, but total wipe out for the shareholders.

That we are agreed on Jennifer!

True Jennifer, know one really know's what the price is going to be, the best we can expect is an indication from the market, and we have one now: 14.75p

"so a no vote puts it back to Chryasor"
But does it? Aren't you forgetting that on the 5th November the covenants get tested again, and we know what that will mean. PMO will fail them/
So to make any sense, you would have to be willing to accept that debt holders might walk away from this deal, extend PMO's credit terms again just to provide an opportunity for shareholders to get more money?
When as you say "they have been part of the negotiations " so they'd walk away from a deal they just negotiated? For what reason exactly?
The ball doesn't sit in Chryasor court, it's firmly in the hands of the creditors and you've got to accept if there's a No vote they may take it home with them. If that happens they now have a deal on the table, that doesn't require shareholders to be involved.

"To be honest I doubt IR have made any attempt to value the company and their price range is probably just the range they say the shares trading after the announcement!"
They may not have done, but it looks like some have:
Sam Wahab "Indeed, a 5.45% equity exposure in the combined group would infer a £2.6bn combined market capitalisation, based on Premier Oil's current £156m market capitalisation."
from the Sky article.

Yeah, reverse-take over. It's a classic way for an indebted PE vehicles to allow the PE holders to exit, when they wouldn't get the value required via IPO. In an asset class like public traded oiler's equity...there's always the chance that retail will take on the equity, bid it up, and let them out with more profit than they could of expected.

"If IR are saying 15 to 20p, based on their past performance I interpret that to mean 15p max."
I think you are wise, when I think back, I expected a reverse-take over, the listing would be a good route for PE to be able to exit. That this would end up somewhere between 10-15p. Rumours of a reverse-take over started circulating in the press before the press release, that made perfect sense, and once you taken the debt out of equaton, it didn't look good.It was when I saw those, it confirmed by exut from the debit. It just made sense to other undlisted entities to exit with a listing and told you about the attitude of PE to debt, they'd wan to convert at least some to equity and I didn't wan to be holding that. I didn't expect the cash offer to be as generous if I'm honest.

Sorry, 14.2

For what it's worth, I've just done a little research on Aler BP. In the last quarter their production was 210k boepd and they have a market capitalisation of £4.5bn. We will have greater oil production, and lower taxes and if achieve a similar capitalisation it would be a share price of 24.3p. If anything it would be expected that we would have a significantly higher capitalisation.
If Sam Wahab is correct "Indeed, a 5.45% equity exposure in the combined group would infer a £2.6bn combined market capitalisation, based on Premier Oil's current £156m market capitalisation."
And Jennifers maths is right, then I come up with 13.8p