Member Info for devonplay

Have you spotted this John?
US bans Malaysian palm oil producer over forced labour
- BBC news website.

So, you aren't going to explain then?

Do I need to join the dots ?
Please do, would love to hear why you think it benefits the company that it's debt should trade at even more distressed levels?
- particularly as it's the sellers largest position - as I understand it.

I'm not so convinced Jennifer, but hey. Anyone's guess. That's why I'm parked at the moment. Taken my profits and awating on news.
Unlike Happy, I think it will survive, but as I've said before I think there's more pain to come first. But I agree, it looks very grim at the moment. I also thought the deal was the best one available, but I'm just not convinced enough of the large creditors do. So, it's a volatile position to be in. Not a greatindication, but ARCM not being able to exit has helped the company I think. Unless they try again at much lower price, which would really erode confidence.

Yeah, I agree, I think the debts got further to fall.
Given their long exposure, and that's their largest exposure if I understand correctly what PMO have said, I can't see why they would want to make PMO's position look weaker? Sells usually want the opposite LOL
After all that short, in theory, is just the long hedge.

It's telling that Reuters pick up on them not updating on the 75% vote required from creditors. Maybe they haven't made much headway.

" ARCM $200m auction failed and they simply want their money back!"
- "little interest" according the Reuters, little interest in the secured assets. Grim stuff. Sign of how nervous the big players are.
I think creditors don't believe the strategy. That's why they are hanging out for an asset sale, why they, PMO, can't get any agreements, except a limited extension to the cov. checks. Maybe there's still asset cover, but my developing view is they reduce the debt down with an assest sale, have a reverse take over at fire sale prices that will leave the PMO shareholders diluted out of existence and we all carry on. The creditors will then be slightly deleveraged and the debt will have better profile. The BP deal gets sunk in deep waters. Interesting times.

"Your employers are a millstone round our necks."
Yawn, how many times do you think someone who holds a contrarian view has that said to them?
They've hedged their long position with a short position, which before the (possible) sale of the 50% of their long, was back inline with what you'd expect. Don't believe me? Look around you'll find the company said something very similar. It's a pretty standard de-rsiking strategy with a company like PMO if you were long.
Now talking about employees, maybe you could tip me for the lesson in corporate finance? I suspect listening to others views might be a good first lesson LOL

"Every time someone post a positive your there to counter it."
Then don't read them. It's simple. Just make up your own mind.
As I've said, I followed ARCM's hint and reduced my long position. They are obv's a major long holder, so it seems rational to listen to what they are doing and reduce long positions. Get over it and move on.

Why because it suits your position? LOL
I tell it how I see it! Make your own mind up.
For me it was easy to reduce my debt long, we still don't know if ARCM were able to find takers for their long position.
After all, this is a debt vehicle, you can see that by looking at the cap table.

"Your arguments are all one sided."
LOL, realism is never one sided. Maybe you should try it sometime?

"I would suggest you cover your short while you have the opportunity to do so."
I was long the debt, but I sold out. I expect all PMO's listed instruments will be cheaper before long and then if we've got more idea what's going on i may go long the debt again.
I'm starting to suspect this tiddler might offer a greater YTM, than the existing 70%, by November.

" they see there gravy train coming to an end"
You sure it's only the gravy train! LOL

When you think about it, that was long position holder wanting to reducce their exposure to the business by 50%

"Does anyone know what happened to ARCM'S sale of bonds?"
No, but we are starting to see why they wanted to reduce their long position in them. That short was to protect their long debt position. Reuters did say they were concerned about the refinance deal. I think what we've seen by todays release is they aren't getting the support they want from other cretitors. Can kicked down the road again!

Aaah $2.9 bln
Against a market cap of £150m !

"I bet there is an RNS after close of play."
I doubt it, it looks like they still haven't got anything on the stable platform agreement or the existing credit agreement, so I guess they've not been able to price the open offer either.
What could they say "Mission Not Accomplished" My understanding was they wanted to get this all done by the end of September! Feels like it's going to drag on and on. Bit of mess, and I suspect creditors have taken on all the talk about transformative deal onboard and want more flesh!! 45 DAYS and counting.

So I've got copy of the £500,000,000 Euro Medium Term Note Programme, but not the energy to flick through it. It look as if i picked them up with a YTM of 12% and then again at 14%, LSE are quoting today c50%
That's must be the figure that stuck in my mind.
Not my most glorious moment LOL

I thougt there had been a revision to that coupon, but I don't hold them in any meaningful way. I hold a very small amount of them. I know from memory they aren't senior. I'll try and have a look in a second.

Hi Romaron, just on general note, I don't know why investors don't look at the tradeable debt. If not as an investment vehicle, then as a indicator.
I thought I always put YTM in the mix, rather than saying profit, but hey, it's a busy day. I calculated c50%, but we both know that it's distressed. Even if some dont want to see anything but a bet on big T and the price of oil.
I always to do my own calculations, but you know when it's busy a source may have to do!
I've never held the equity short or long, and the bonds a short term. It looks like we are both in agreement they are junk LOL
At this point, I don't share Happy's view of the end of the world, but I do think there might be more coming down the track for both parts of the cap table. In terms of the "ounces of flesh" I think there a reasonable chance there's going to be more cut than the initial agreement indicated and I'm not sure there's going to be a deal. But as you say, my expectations change on a daily basis, there's just so much going on. I think technically, the stock is still called 5% 2021, so they are correct in using the title, even if the coupon changes they don't always change the title - which can be confusing.
As far the usefulness of YTM, it's usually they way that fixed interest investors look at the price of a bond. I prefer to think in those terms, others I know are much more interested in the yield.
We are alll kicking our heals at the moment, it's got to be imminent. I can't see they can delay an update with all that's going on.
I was trying to remember the new coupon on the Enquest PiK, I seem to remember it was 12%, I'm just not sure if ther revised terms here are rich enough. I guess, we'll all know in a day or so.