Member Info for devonplay

"No idea why we have sold off to the 30p again."
It may be the concern arising from the possibiliy of dilution coming from a debt for equity swap. In my experience, being other than being on the PE's side is a bad place to be. I not some of the retail note holders have been talking about that Telegraph article with some concern on another forum. I'm going to wait my time and see. I haven't yet had a look at the Prospectus, but would be surprised if there's not something like a "change of control" clause and the usual 101% plus any accumulated interest if there's a deal. Time will tell.

LOL that's OK Jennifer, there's a Lady Jennifer in that trader forum.
Yes, it does make it very clear, and the Note in the Accounts.
It's going to be interesting to see if there's an RNS on the 30th/1st. There must be one, I'm sure institutional investors will be expecting an update about the company's financial position even if some retail investors don't think it matters.
LOL

Hi Jennifer, I was holding PMO1, but made it out the door with a profit. I can't remember which RNS I made this clipping from:
"In addition, since 8 July 2020 the Group's leverage and interest cover financial covenants for the testing period ended on 30 June 2020 have been deferred under the terms of the Stable Platform Agreement. Without the deferrals contained in the Stable Platform Agreement, the Group would have breached the financial covenants contained in its financing agreements in respect of the testing period ended on 30 June 2020. In the event that the Proposed Refinancing is not agreed or finalised by 30 September 2020, if the Group is unable to obtain a further deferral or waiver of the financial covenant testing for the period ended on 30 June 2020, there is a risk that an event of default may arise prior to May 2021. If such an event were to occur, the requisite majority of the Group's creditors would have the right to vote to declare the Group's debt liabilities immediately repayable. "

Interestingly, when I last bought notes covering the AA '22 debt the yield to maturity was somewhere between 13-14%

I own some of the RAC 5.0% 2022. It would be more accurate saying I own "notes" that represent that bond.

Hi Mr Solo, long time!

Opened a small position this morning, I'm planning to use a low cost monthly fundction my brokers offers going forward to build a full position.
I may buy a lump, rather than a toe hold, if we reach 45p as lth position.

"Anyone could have made that up"
You mean like saying "their debt is being managed and is not due for renegotiation in the near term. 10 years ago the 2.3 billion debt would have been horrendous but today this amount of debt is not uncommon and the word billion is on many pages of any newspaper everyday. There is a game being played here. just can't work out what it is."
LOL
It's been in a newspaper, make of it what ever you want. It's one person opinion, as a bond holder I don't want the equity. I hold positions in both RAC & AA. I prefer RAC slightly at the moment, and might increase my position to it slightly in preference.
It's was news to me, interesting and I thought it might interest someone else.

I guess PR. They appear to be very active in promoting the company. You might want to checkout Vimeo and see what they are saying to paraplanners etc. They are also covering off the broaders activity of Downing, Downing Crowd: Pulford Trading & Bagnall Energy.

From Daily Telegraph
......
“We believe the AA could be worth more to the PE buyers than it is to the AA itself. We expect a PE buyer would restructure the debt and decrease the overall interest costs, translating into even higher free cash flows than the AA would earn independently.

“A typical private equity buyer will potentially be able to do things with the debt that the AA currently cannot do. If you have a well-heeled buyer come in and negotiate with debt holders, then I would expect them to bring some skills to this, and that is part of the attraction.”
.....

"Waiting in the wings is Wall Street buyout colossus Apollo, understood to be interested in providing a solution to the AA’s debt headache. Any investment from Apollo would likely come at a cost, sources say. A complex investment strategy that could lead to a debt-for-equity swap could well be on the cards, through one of the US firm’s hybrid funds."

" I think that a fair position" unfair postion! This site needs an edit function. LOL

"look at the charts "
All I see forming is a choclate starfish. LOL

"That all being said, the major disposal of part of the cap table by a signifiant entity at 72% (as being reported by Reteurs, and the possible lack of interest again as being reported by Reuters) "
I of course mean, planned auction at 72%

PMO1 are an indicate to the extent they are the only elements of the cap table, outside other ordinary shares, that we can see a market price for.
Yes, they have been as lower as 32% of par, my point was that being public they may provide insight into elemets of the cap table we can't see prices for. That all being said, the major disposal of part of the cap table by a signifiant entity at 72% (as being reported by Reteurs, and the possible lack of interest again as being reported by Reuters) is interesting when the publically traded debt is now below that 72% mark.
I agree with you, I expect them to go lower, but you have to consider this in the mix. Most buyers of retail bonds hold them with the intention of keeping them to maturity. They aren't speculating in them, so aren't watching them on a daily basis.
They will also be held my institutions and family office, who will be watching on a daily basis. They aren't exclusively retail products. So there's the potential for them to lag, but that doesn't mean they aren't indicative of wider sentiment.
I don't think it does undermine my arguement. My arguement isn't that company wont be around - or whatever Happy calls it - my arguement is that I don't know what the cap table is going to be like going forward and if there's was a creditors/stakeholders waterfall, there's little chance of anything for sharehoders with the level of debt. I suspect there will be pain coming down the line for both positions, equity and debt, but it's very unlikely not to be felt by shareholders more than any other party given equities position vis-a-vis debt. I'm not sure you can decribe a credit default as teetering on the edge for business, as much as teetering on the edge for shareholders. I've also said I'm sure there's a future for the company, just less sure who the owners will be. THERE is a difference. In some terms shareholders are seen as owners of the business, in other accounting terms it's seen a who has greatest claims on the future earning of a business, and at this point it feels like creditors do. I think that a fair position given the uncertainty, PMO1 might be up of it's lows, but that doesn't mean it wont see them again.

PREMIER OIL PLC £500 million Euro Medium Term Note Programme
From PMO1's Info. Booklet:
This Information Booklet relates to the Premier Oil 5% Sterling fixed rate Bonds due 2020 (referred to in this Information Booklet as
the “Bonds”). A base prospectus dated 18 November 2013 (the “Prospectus”) which relates to Premier Oil plc’s £500,000,000 Euro Medium term Note Programme and which comprises a base prospectus for the purposes of Article 5.4 of the Directive, and final terms relating to the Bonds dated 25 November 2013 (the “Final Terms”), have been prepared and made available to the public in accordance with the Directive. Copies of the Prospectus and Final Terms are available from the
website of Premier Oil (www.premier-oil.com/ bonds) and the website of the London Stock Exchange plc (www.londonstockexchange. com/newissues). Your Authorised Offeror will provide you with a copy of the Prospectus and the Final Terms.
And yes it was £150m

LOL, it's just occured to be that PMO1 was issued for £150m about the same market cap of the equity today.
I'm sure it was £150 without checking.
The previous none ORB issue, which I believe was the base Prospectus for PMO1, was £500m - again from memory.

First, ARCM are not selling their entire holding of PMO1. They are auctioning $200 mln and will retain $240 mln according to media reports.
- that's correct, I've posted that on previous occasions.
That's applicable to PMO, the difference in general is that bonds are held buy institution, so if you use PMO1 as being an indicator, as I did, then you have to accept that institual investors are not as excitable as retail investors, they won't be expecting £1 by Christmas, so it provides and insight.
Can you can buy and sell PMO1 in trades of £100, but you also know that most are traded in much greater figures than mom and pop 10k's. In general there is less retail liquidity, but also less retail specualtion.
Agree with it or not, that your choice. As far as timing is concerned, we wouldn't be having this converstation in the company's equity hadn't created, unless you poster on here can move the market to that extent. If you do, I'm afraid we'll disagree again.

No, I didn't hedge them at the time. I was interested in a long position.
I bought at 82%, then trances at 55% and c40% - I didn't call the botton. Who ever does?
I neveer buy all in one go. I sold with a small profit, some income and some accumulated icome.
- that's from memory, but it's roughlty there about I ended up with 40'sh% YTM

"HAPPY, do you really believe the end is nigh?"
I doubt this will be the end, I'm just less certain what the structure/shape of the capitalization table will be going forward. I'm sure whatever the shape, if you did a waterfall analysis you know where shareholders will be - that's just the way it works.

PMO1 is now down below the indicative price Reuters reported Asia Research & Capital Management wanted. The price they waned to auction their holding of bonds off at.
Reuters did say that souces thought they might not find any buyers.
Perhaps sources were right, no one wants the exposure if they haven't already got it and those who have don't want any more.
I believe the auction is tomorrow, a whole 3 working days before the 30th. Interesting to see if there's much appetite....
There's less liquidity in the bonds, less retail investors, so when they fall it's an interetsting insite into the markets views.