RE: Phron27 Aug 2018 19:41
George, thanks for your response. If we attained a representative hydrocarbon flow from IW2 we would be talking about a much greater price per acre for any IW2 farm out negotiations, that is the top and bottom of it. You are correct in stating that shale plays do not necessarily give up the goods on first attempt, however as a prospective partner the fact that only C6+ hydrocarbons were extracted along with water in an unproven formation add considerable risk and therefore any offers we receive will be lower. I’m not going to dig the knife in but it could be argued that our approach to getting the oil out was laboured (shut ins / soaks) and too simplistic, which reflects detrimentally on us, although hindsight is a wonderful thing. I was focusing on unconventional in my original post as this is the primary objective of our BoD and has been reiterated recently.
However the conventional prospectivity paints a very good picture and for me, the conventional is the bread and butter here although we haven’t physically proven it yet with oil to surface. 3D surveys are great but it’s never going to be 100% guaranteed. If we were offered 1-2$ per barrel right now before a well is drilled, for the whole lot parcelled up via accumulate energy etc I would happily bite your hand off. But it is worth considering although we have such a large potential resource, only a handful of the leads identified look hugely promising (e.g stellar multi stacks, bravo) identified in the last presentation. Are huge majors really that interested in 5 mbboe here, 20mbboe there? Constructing ice roads and general pain in the arse conditions? What happens if the two drills through stacked resources don’t deliver the jackpot we are expecting? Where is the £1 party then? The rest of that 1.5bn looks a lot less attractive. Having said that, Add into the mix a hopefully successful drill at horseshoe and a JV at yukon gold and we could do very well. We will be OK here, this is where DW makes his money (and hopefully ours).