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Agreed. Really looking forward to hearing Menzie at the investor presentation.

Shares in circulation*

I think this has at least 3x before fair value.

Multiples more once DRO is understood and PSC agreed and a CPR and farm out on Kertang.

57,000,000 states in circulation so £1 is a £57M Mcap to put it in perspective.

The naysayer sat on the sideline commenting ridiculous statements of doom and I’m happy with my top ups between 7-7.5p.

‘This is my idea of a very good day out’

Yeah 6x Mcap of LBE.

Not wanting to create a competition or talk down UPL in anyway. It’s just that they are basically the same type of company now.

Differences are:

-Kertang is a monstrous field in deeper water - 9TCF in Kertang and many more fields of similar magnitude have been mapped on 4D.

-discovered oil/gas field being given to LBE… sounds like it’s been agreed with some admin to iron out.

-CPR to confirm volume as the final bargaining chip for the international company wanting to farm in (sounds like shell or total but not sure)

-James Menzies is chairman. This man is so charismatic it’s untrue

Fully selling up on Norway that is. Not me!

At this stage we’re basically a close of UPL with a better asset and by the sounds of it, some already discovered fields on the way.

Roll on CPR

Personally not happy with the price nor fully selling up. But the provisional DRO is very very interesting.

Agreed, have a real of the last 12 month RNS’s. Probably 45 mins of reading.

Take a look at the latest investor calls on YouTube and make a decision.

Agreed, but just curious what you think we should be valued at right now?

I’d suspect it would be multiples of £4 million?

I personally don’t see a placing here right now.

I think debt will be used to cover the short term deficit.

Really interested to hear what the board have to say on the 27th.

Worst case scenario (which I don’t foresee btw) is we raise a placing at let’s say 50 million shares. Taking us to 100 million’ish.

At that point, JV is self sustainable and generating gross revenue of approx $31 million a year.

Let’s assume the Mcap of £15 million on rerate (still well below fair value). That’s a share price of 15p or 100% from this abysmal level.

Given that there would have to be a rerate of the share price once funding is sorted and PI’s always get the crappy deal. Id suspect it would be a placing to institutions only and at a premium to the price right now. Maybe 9p-10p?

So 50,000,000 shares raised to provide £5,000,000 cash which in theory would cover the suspected short fall and a share price of minimum 15p.

Again personally I feel any funding will be via short term debt facility but if there is a placing. I’ll try to take part because it’s free money based off the rerate that would have to happen.

Agreed Jungmana.

This was way undervalued even at £0.2 and a Mcap at £10 million.

For the assets we have a Mcap of £20-35 million is much more realistic price for right now. Which would be a share price £0.36-£0.62.

IMO Longboat need to be updating the market with revenue figures from Statfjord. Seen lots of companies release this monthly to remind the market the asset is brining in money.

CPR of Kertang, Farm out partner and drill date confirmed takes this to £50 million Mcap. DRO award in Sarawak is again a massive value propositions based off the DRO’s I’ve seen awarded previously which includes discovered fields and even fields that have current production.

Also agree that the DRO is ridiculously value accretive - how do we pay for development? Revenues from Norway IMO. The two go hand in hand.

Kertang is a monster. My guess is that once we get CPR we’ll soon be followed up with a farm in partner - highly likely a major that has space in a rig schedule (Total or Shell, could also be Conoco).

I just look at upland resources which have an asset in Malaysia well below the quality of LBE’s, with no 3d seismic, no CPR and no expected reserves and wonder how are they sitting at £40 M Mcap and we’re sitting at 1/10 that.

Ohh yes, terrible PR and even worse Regulatory news published. Crazy but the value is here for the taking.

Again, I don’t agree that they’ll give up on a revenue source.

I do agree though that Longboats focus, as a company will be Malaysia. The JV in Norway is soon to be self sufficient with HH and co taking up the reins there to focus entirely on that.makes sense given he has no connections or experience in Malaysia.

To put it in perspective, Kveikja, Kjottkate, Magnolia will easily contribute 7,000 boepd at the current equity stakes. These developments will easily be 20,000 -30,000 boepd fields initially.

Whilst acquisitions haven’t been flying in. I do believe they will make another eventually. At the bottom of the financial pdf, there is a line that reads ‘mission is to grow LJN into a 15,000 boepd producer within 3-5 years’ I for one don’t think we should be giving up on that, particularly now that it’s almost sustainable stand alone.

Is that we’ve been artificially ripped off with that RNS. Lots of mention of big numbers $64 million capex increase, $55 million price increase in 2023, $17 million to be repaid at year end. No mention of net to LJN or Longboat.

No mention that the 2023 capex budge was covered in the acquisition price which changed from $12M to $15M on handover day.

No mention that the net capex in 2024 is $3 million and $1.5 million net to LBE.

‘Poor performance’ of statjford wells makes it sound like the wells have underdelivered despite original forecast predicting 600 boepd and that increasing by 66% to 1000 boepd once the remaining. Two wells are online.

Complaining about Kveikja being slow, well let’s be honest. Developments are slow unless there is maximum of two partners and they own the infrastructure.

Never seen an RNS like it with no tangible details. Honestly the poorest worded RNS I’ve seen, it feels like it was designed to crash the share price

Again, $9.1 million at year end 2023. $17 million from the acquistion facility. $26 million cash at hand in total

Paid $15 million for the asset. So $11 million cash at hand.

Operating income of $13 million. $24 million cash at hand year end.

Capex costs of $3.2 million. 21 million cash at hand year end.

Repay $17 million. $4 million cash at hand year end.

Capex costs paid back anyway.

Obviously there will be other costs throughout the year. But struggling to see a signifinant black hole.

What are the classifying as significant here ffs. Because significant for JAPEX would be 100’s of millions. Significant for us is what? £100,000? £1 million? What?

Agreed and therein lies the problem.

The company has been so ambiguous with details that speculation and D-day predictions are rampant.

Standing back though and reviewing the cash at hand, income and JV finance, IMO it can’t be more than a couple of million and actually given we’ll be producing 1000 boepd from the JV… a couple of months worth of revenue.

If the company walks away from Norway then I can only put it down to an engineered failure because it makes no sense IMO… again based on the finances available.

I believe this round closes in August based off a google search.

Can’t help but think it’ll be Jadestone?

Zengas agreed (again) good analysis.

I was also intrigued with Geraldine’s background.

CPR report will be so they can flash it in the face of potential partners and say ‘this is what it’s worth and this is what we want’ - I’d expect news on that fairly soon afterwards.

Looking at the slides I’d suspect either shell or total as farm in partners. Given shell have the adjacent block I’m leaning towards them. Even if it’s to prevent total from muscling in on a prospect that straddles the border of the two blocks

This is the statement from longboat

In the event Longboat cannot meet its share of additional working capital shortfalls at LJN in a timely fashion, the terms of the Shareholder Agreement and Acquisition Facility could result in Longboat forfeiting some-or-all of its shares in LJN.

There are no figures provided anywhere within this statement on what the working capital shortfall is. Speculation is rampant. How much is the shortfall is my point because it can’t be 17M

It’s clearly not the $17 million that’s been suggested multiple times across multiple boards given they had 9 million in cash to start with, they have operating cash flow of 13 million and the capex spend is paid back anyway.

Longboat has a shortfall clearly. But its crazy to suggest that they would exit a JV that

a) the original production prediction of 600 boepd increased by 66% to 1000 boepd

B) acquisition cost rose from 12.5M to 15M (20% increase in cost). Yes capex costs this year but again favourable terms on returning it back

C) would pay back in less than a year at full rates

D) would provide cash flow for 15 years

I just don’t buy that they would risk losing the value of Norway without exploring financing options on the asset. Helge mentioned that they had already been looking at RBLs and other financing which would extend the 100M debt facility to 200M.

LJN £8.1 million at 2023 YE

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GVElFW-2ipY&t=19s&pp=ygUPTG9uZ2JvYXQgZW5lcmd5