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Thanks for your input lunus. I misworded, upfront + milestones £/$500m. Don't think that's infeasible. Is your $100-150m all in upfront?
I think it really depends on what this deal with Eli looks like. The magnitude of the upfront payment will decide how high we go here (in the 2/3 trading sessions straight after news). Also need to contend with the fact that larger buyers will move in on serious financing deals. The milestone payments for CDX, if Hemo have dressed it sufficiently well, should not sum to less than £500M in my humble opinion. The possibilities of this platform are endless. If we look down the road, just for CDX, assuming Phase I+II completion, we should be eyeing a £500MC company. Within 18months. Just on CDX. >£1 in 2021/2022.
Happy to be argued down. But I feel these numbers are reasonable, even if timescales are stretched slightly with COVID complications in clinical trials.
That's so much BS I can't even bring myself to respond more than: lol
Small milestones there... Someone still asleep? ;)
CDX upfront payment will pay for CAR-T phase 1&2 at least. Already derisked/potentially quicker with our mice. We'll be due a takeover bid at that point in my opinion. Don't see need for placings etc now. Just share options to CEO which he's more than earned in my opinion.
Thanks for sharing your personal situation Bluemoon, it's appreciated. You've got a realistic view of this for sure. I'm pretty much committed here now. If we have a delay to Eli deal then I'll find some money down the back of the sofa - it's a distinct possibility. I'm hoping 340k shares will see me the right side of a mill in the coming year(s) here - a truly fantastic, undervalued opportunity that I genuinely don't think many will come across again.
If I was restrained enough, I'd not bother to check this share until my broker emailed me to say my shares have been converted to cash after an acquisition - and I'm convinced I won't have to wait to long for it either...
If you create churn on a rise then it slows momentum and the high (and subsequent plateau) is lower than it would have otherwise been. Bends everyone over. But I get it, money is money and I respect that as much as it frustrates me on a share like HEMO where traders are moving in and out on ripples when there's a tsunami coming. IMO
I imagine we'd be seeing >100k share purchases if people knew something... it's not us small fries that get that info lol
Did similar yesterday below 9p, it's a little silly how we didn't move after PennU news... the number of de-risk RNS' we've had with little/no SP movement is criminal. It'll come.
Back to the 7's. Your cautious optimism is appreciated! Upside >> downside
Insightful, thank you for your contribution.
4-5 times where we are now if we were being analytical of the likely numbers presented? Reality with people selling for 10%? - probs 2.5 times up.
Joker
It's because we're waiting on numbers. And we're overdue to get them! This whole company's MC is determined by potential. Just on potential, we should be on a 9 figure MC, but here we are on LSE....
Soon as there's a deal printed with some NUMBERS involved, then there's no discussion what the company should be worth. $50M upfront for CDX from Lilly? Times it by 5 for a fair MC before you even consider the rest of the pipeline. IMO
*what news aren't we expecting?
I understand your position here mjng, it's a difficult one. Personally, hearing Vlad's comments on the webinar, there was a clear feeling from him (that was certainly a soft communication) of his agitation around the Eli deal not having been signed before COVID struck. His comments were very clear that Eli were in the final final stages before completion of their work - we're talking days not weeks here - and he seemed very bullish that the deal would be penned. Obviously, with the caveat that if necessary we will go it alone, but if you were there listening you'd know how confident he was in this relationship with Eli. Even just the way he spoke about their cultures aligning and getting a lot accomplished together (on the YouTube vid from a few weeks back)... personally I think it's verbally understood that it will take place IMO. But hey, as you say, not confirmed and not RNS'd so you're right to treat anything outside of RNS as conjecture.
Ah apologies, I wasn't aware of that :) decent deal then
Liamg, I'm aware that Freetrade is an app where you can trade HEMO for "free". Only issue is it's only a dealing account, not ISA. So any net gains over £12,300 you have to pay capital gains tax (assuming you haven't already made money on trades in a dealing account this financial year)
Fair comment, we know next to nothing about our work / progress on COVID. I agree it's a tense time. Plenty to expect, just need to start hearing about it :) but I'm relaxed about my investment here
Agreed. Could all go **** up. But then we have COVID, Hu-Phec, going alone and licensing ourselves etc etc etc. This is why I like HEMO. Working with big players on multiple fronts. It's not a coin flip like most of the other pharmas in the microcap space right now. Imo.