Member Info for DC2007

Thought you didn't abuse or insult people on here T4G? Calling others 'clowns', 'f*****g trolls', is plenty of both.

You're prodigious at contradicting yourself.

I said a while ago why I use this board: it's a volatile share that makes good trading; it's popular with retail investors because it's well known from news scandals.

You've either forgotten this or are ignoring it so you can sustain those wild conspiracies that people who are critical of Boo must be part of some devilish shorting operation.

Shorts took their positions because previously rapidly growing profits have fell off a cliff and most recently turned into losses. The SP was often a bit toppy, but the deterioration in business performance made it very overpriced and now the market has repriced.

Why do you post so often here T4G?

You're invested for the long term and expect the dividends to start flowing in a few years. If that's true and you're confident of it, why care if shorts open or close? Why care if the SP is up or down in a month, let alone a day?

A secure LTH of the stock wouldn't even bother checking day to day stuff. Posting so much makes you appear nervous; like you're full of doubt of the viability of your underlying strategy, but cannot properly admit those concerns to yourself.

Thanks for the links Amann.

'I think everyone is aware of the shorting and how it works.'

No, I don't. And unless one has worked in finance and been directly involved in shorting something (which excludes most of the small retail investors on a forum), claiming to know how to works is fatuous.

Yep it's textbook denial. And then wishful thinking that the SP is where it is because of some great shorting conspiracy, that no one else happens to be aware of.

Satisfied at having read the market decently. Is that allowed?

Go Boo! Another lower multi-year low struck. 40s nailed on now.

Low to mid 40s is the bottom I expect Wibble.

T4G:

Warning signs for every company you listed were there for ages before they went bust. Ditto Thomas Cook. The smart money, other than the shorters, by then has already left.

It's small retail investors that are left without a chair when the music stops. Worst of all is that they'll usually have piled in, convincing themselves and each other they've made the investment of a lifetime.

Naive to cling to NOMAD.

Having observed other companies go bust, it's notable that right up until it goes into administration, their PR will convey that business is fine/normal and they'll continue to report routine things as if nothing wrong.

Only insiders can know the direction of travel well ahead of this, and they too can quite often be in some state of conscious or unconscious denial.

The shorters haven't bust the investment case here T4G - a combination of Boo-boos and market dynamics have taken care of that.

'But in the real world the business seems to be doing ok.'

Erm, in the T4G world perhaps all is dandy. Meanwhile Q1 revenues down by how much (in real terms)? Something like —15%. Pls reconcile with 'net sales growth'.

Boo has little footprint in the US compared to Shein. Key competitor or yet another T4G red herring? Hardly even needs an answer.

12 days is now a long time in fashion. 12 months to theUS expansion? Who knows, might never happen.

Unless you're working for the II, that's pure speculation: you've no idea how they could be hedged, or their overall net position. Weight given to that is quixotic interpretation. You say you deal in facts only — what changed?

PBT can be useful and I do use it for certain comparisons. But only PAT is owners' earnings and that's the net margin, and it's never been regularly >7%.

I looked into it extensively as a substantial investment but found too many yellow & red flags and rejected it. Management have lost their way with it, have now lost all momentum and haven't taken advantage of earlier successes.

Boo's volatile and so its trading potential means I look at this board.

Net earnings margin was 5 to 6% at best if memory serves; and it's declined ever since.

You conflate this with other, more flattering, margin measures again and again.

Boo isn't investment quality to me and never has been: it's only an interesting trade, because of its market volatility.

Terminal figures: revenue is generously assumed as £4bn. Net margin between 3-4% as I've already said.

A reasonable valuation for that cashflow is £2bn tops. Ceteris paribus & amounts in today's money, of course.

I'm talking net earnings, not the prettified figures you prefer.

Frankly I'm not very confident in the management and so yes, it wouldn't surprise if they misjudged and had excess capacity.

Shein is too much an unknown and opaque to be a meaningful comparator.

Value clothes retailers tend to have net profit margins about half of your 7% – by nature they're low margin business. That means your £420m net profit a year isn't gonna happen.

Having £6bn capacity means nothing unless customers will buy that amount of stuff from a single operator. V unlikely to happen in a fragmented market; even moreso with Boo's main customer demographic.

I think it'll duck to mid-40s, Bert. Business would have to be in trouble for there to be a big downside from there. Not a possibility I'd rule out, but a lowish probability.

I don't see a huge upside to it anymore — the days of £3+ are history. Much over £1.50 would seem exceptional. Terminal value of Boo's earnings supports a business valuation of about £1.5 - 2bn.

What bunk! If the future was as obviously good as you portray, why has the market wiped 80% from the value of the stock?

You're effectively saying you know better than the market. That's thinking to lose loadsa money.