RE: Alaska Weather30 Nov 2020 10:14
Rabito, brom and co.
hypothetical Speaking As this is what we can only do at this juncture in time. We are at a crossroads again hypothetically assuming what will be or not be based on previous drills a new logging data and 3-D information in our acreage and surrounding areas.
I can only remember offhand Dave and Paul mentioning the HRZ is breakeven of around $40 based on the Permian shale, as for Conventional side of things based on my research and emailing Dave the ball park figure for break even is around $35-$40 and this fluctuates depending on which area of Alaska and the north slope you’re drilling on, you could combine the two figures and divided by 2 to make a rough mean average.
RECOVERY RATES are important as well And again based on the research And data that I have Acquired I’ve come to a figure of 30 to 50%. Remembering that prudhoe bay had 30bn after the Meteorite impact and over the 40 odd years in production roughly 15 billion has been extracted, I assume it is slightly easier to produce in prudhoe bay than lower south on the north slope. But if you use the 50% recovery from P/B as a rough rule of thumb for others on the north slope then assume the following
Peregrine farm out:
1bn oip - 50% revcovery = 500mmb dived by (hypothetical working interest for 88e being 50/50)
= 250mmb each ( assume mean avg breakeven $40, brent being @$47 gives us $7 profit or you could use the oil search/Armstrong deal of $3.10 per barrel)
250mmb X $7 = 1.75bn dived by 10.6bn shares = 12.5p as a production figure but 88e not going into full production so a buy out price of $3.10 X 250mmb = $775m divide 10.6bn shares in issue = 5.5p
Just my thoughts and rough fag packet figures nothing else, Dave did mention at last globe presentation nov 2019 that he desirably would like 88e to have net of 200mmb to 300mmb and sold between $3. & $5 p/b for around 1.5bn Ozzie dollars and if oil was around $80 - $100 If all the ducks/ planets lined up on his preferred wish list.
So going on that lot ask your selves what have we got going for us prospective wise compared back then?
One: Peregrine 1.6bn oip
Two: Charlie 900mmb oip
Three: yukon 90mmb potentially 300mmb
Four: heavenly ?
Five : Lima?
Six: Area B?
Severn: Area C?
Eight: HRZ 1bn - 3bn oip?
IMHO DYOR. No advice given. Figures based on assumed oip and potential recovery and farm out W/I deal
Regards dazzle
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