Having listened to Keith Hill saying several majors were currently in the data room looking at 3B/4B, while not wishing to be all doom and gloom it occurred to me there is scope for the SA enterprise to diminish quite suddenly, and quite soon. That makes me question my own exit strategy.
I’m thinking of a scenario where 2B is a dud and none of the experts from the majors consider 3B/4B worth the investment bearing in mind the huge cost, thereby rendering the block a bit of wet real estate having no value. Note Hill acknowledged they can’t work it without the major on board. Trouble is, when would be the time to think nobody wants to farm in to 3B/4B, particularly when it’s not known how long they’ve been looking?
When Guyana is already in mothballs I personally won’t want to spend another few years waiting for action. Namibia has, according to Gil in the past, had farm-in interest but nothing has come of it and the Walvis Bay generally still seems devoid of interest.
Hopefully, the Orange Basin assets are great success, but we could certainly find out much sooner than expected.
Having just caught up on Keith Hill’s presentation, L was concerned at the suggestion they are already considering their exit strategy regards the three companies in their portfolio, one being ECO, in order to realise the value. Gazania is potentially a key factor in that processes, albeit 3B/4B remains of serious interest which suggests either a continued hold of their shares or total buy out of ECO. Selling their ECO shares was quite possible. Regardless, he talked like ECO’s future is pretty much within his control, which I don’t like. I’m sure Gil and Co know the score but they’re in bed with a shark! Otherwise, it’s good to hear majors are in the 3B/4B data room, which could - COULD - mean a drill next year if one comes on board soon (potentially paying quite a price he mooted based on events elsewhere).
The accounts will come soon enough, no need for fretting. The last thing needed is a cobbled together rush job that blows up in their face again. Like others, I’d expect a matter of weeks to be around 4-5. It certainly get interesting on that day, be it positive or negative from the last guidance. If it’s no worse than, away we go..!
At or around the end of the month Azinam Group Holdings can dispose of just over 10M ECO shares if they so desire. That the clause enabling them to sell one third after six months or on spud of Gazania-1 was inserted into the acquisition deal suggests to me they would probably wish to derisk their holding prior to the Gazania result. I wonder if that threat is now holding back the sp.
Reuters 2/09
DAKAR, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Namibian offshore oil and gas discoveries by TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) and Shell (SHEL.L) are of commercial quantities, likely in the billions of barrells, the southern African nation's mines and energy minister said on Friday.
Both companies announced earlier this year that they had made "significant" discoveries offshore Namibia, and are currently making assessments.
The companies did not detail the quantities found but a source told Reuters that Total's discovery was more than 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
The discoveries could make Namibia, the southern neighbour of OPEC member Angola, the latest oil producer along the African Atlantic coast.
"The companies are cautious, but have talked about commercial quantities in billions of barrels," Namibia Mines and Energy Minister Tom Alweendo told Reuters on the sideline of an oil conference in Dakar, Senegal.
"The commerciality is there. They basically want to make sure that before they commit to production investment, they know what exact quantities are there," Alweendo said.
He added that the firms are in the process of drilling their second and third wells, and by the end of the year they would have done the appraisals and have estimated figures.
The minister told the conference on Thursday that the companies could start production in four years. read more
"Both companies are keen to accelerate the process to production and have both mentioned that in four years, they should start producing. It is not something that we imposed, but it is something that we have discussed," he said.
Don't imagine the West Coast doesn't have similar challenges. This extract from Oceans not Oil -
Once again red flags are raised as another tick-box consultation is arranged at the 11th hour.
Azinam’s proposed offshore exploration well(the Gazania-1) drilling is to be conducted in relatively shallow water depths from 50 to 200 metres and is located offshore south of Kleinzee to the village of Kotzesrus. A 686km2 2013 3D seismic data confirmed prospectivity in the the Block 2B licence area. Block 2B is located in the Orange Basin and covers 3,062 km2 off the west coast of South Africa 300 kilometres north of Cape Town. Oil was discovered and tested on the block by Soekor in the A-J1 borehole drilled in 1988
Azinam’s drilling, planned for October this year (2022), adds to the cumulative effect of a dramatic increase in these last two years of applications for heavy mineral sands, gemstones, off-shore diamond mining, coffer dam as well as phosphates mining. This development pressure continues because no Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) or an Environmental Management Framework guides planning and decision-making for the West Coast, leaving the assessment of these combined impacts, and the problematic relationships between offshore oil and gas and climate change, waste, environmental degradation, pollution, and public health to interested and affected parties:- fisherfolk, coastal residents and environmental and social justice organisations. Any mining company who seeks to conduct exploration must consider the impact of these activities on the ecosystem as a whole including the applicant communities. Yet, once again, it is concerned South Africans who are left to face up to proponents of continued hydrocarbon exploitation, now accepted to be the prime cause of climate change...........
This won't help:
A South African court has upheld a ban imposed on the energy giant Shell from using seismic waves to explore for oil and gas off the Indian Ocean coast.
The judgment delivered in Makhanda on Thursday marks a monumental victory for environmentalists concerned about the impact the exploration would have on whales and other marine life.
The 2014 decision granting the right for the “exploration of oil and gas in the Transkei and Algoa exploration areas is reviewed and set aside”, the high court ruled in the southern city.
Pretty much a certainty Ricocure wouldn’t want to take the financial lead in 3B/4BB, and that they’ve taken a punt on acquiring the licence early with the hope it would pay off later - a hugely successful gamble! ECO now clearly feel it’s odds on a super major will come in in light of the two major discoveries by Shell and Total and I do feel that’s almost a given. Exxon must surely be favourite.