Member Info for Davstock

Has just been approved in the US.

PSV Normand Supra is due to dock at Chaguaramas in Trinidad and Tobago on Dec 31.

Looks like the drilling will be ahead of schedule - early Jan start?

For all chart followers.

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/eyes-are-fixed-new-highs-bp-ii514503

The good thing about the Moderna vaccine is it can be kept in normal freezer temperatures.

That will allow for much faster distribution.

Moderna's vaccine is safe and 95% effective, regulators say, clearing the way for US emergency authorisation.
Moderna's data was released by the FDA on Tuesday, ahead of the vaccine panel's meeting to discuss the drug on Friday.

The agencies are starting to see positives in Tullow going forward now. The tide is turning for Tullow.
They have had months of downgrades but now in the last couple of weeks, the agencies have about-turn and started to increase their forecast view on Tullow.
I think that's 3 upgrades so far?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55265477

Is becoming a real hotspot now.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Exxon-Makes-First-Promising-Offshore-Discovery-Off-Suriname.html

With oil reaching $50 way before anyone expected, is making the market nervous, and are not sure it can hold this jump.

When the US approves a vaccine in a couple of days will reinforce the rise and allow the markets to settle and the prices to rise.

Tullow had said Rahul was going to do the rounds with their major holders to explain how they will turn the business around.

Looks like this has just started to bear fruit. I would expect more to follow in the coming months.

There is no right issue happening to Tullow, that has come straight from the horse's mouth!

Tullow gave a straight-up plan on CMD. They need oil to average at $45 for 2021 - so if oil averages at $50-$60 for the year, there will be more than enough profit to pay down even more of the debt and enough also to pay for any new rigs they have planned in 2021.

They still have 0.48. They reduced to under 0.5 on Monday.

Only holdings over 0.5 get recorded now.

Marshall Wace has lowered again to take them under the 0.5% threshold.

Tullow promised to be more transparent and the CMD has done just that for the investors.

They have laid out what the company needs the oil price to be over the next 10 years, which is as transparent as you can get. $45 in the first year and $55 for the following 9 years put them in a position to pay down debt and make a profit as well to compensate investors.

If you take the first year (2021) if oil averages at $55 for the year, Tullow has an average of around 70000 barrels over the year, they would be able to pay an extra $250 million of the debt in 12 months time. That's extra profit from the conservative forecast on CMD.

It's made it very simple and clear now to judge an investment in Tullow.

Would have liked to have seen Opec+ extend the cut for the 3 months they looked like they were going to do. The good news with the vaccine came a bit too early. The small rise from Jan is not too bad also!

There should be moves upwards when the US approves a vaccine, and also when Europe approves as well. That should be over the next week or two, which will keep the share price moving in the right direction heading towards RBL.

They told me last week that the $75 million is not in their calculations for Jan RBL.
So the way I read that is, they're not relying upon the money in the figures but will use it accordingly whenever they do receive it.

I Would like to see it come in as soon as poss tho!

I don't usually comment on other people's comments but this must be the most desperate piece of de-ramming I have heard on this board to date!!!

Tullow has a great relationship with Ghana's government.

Why would the government change things when Tullow has just announced that they are just about to invest massively there?

In auction now!

Slift,

Your holding obviously went into profit for the first time in months and you took the profits, If My holding had done the same I might have jumped as well and then bought back when the opportunity arises?

But the production cuts you are now worried about were in the forecast before, and even if the reduction is slighter lower than thought, the extent of the cuts that the company has taken has more than offset the reduction.

The original plan was to trim the business down by about 30% and that was going to be enough, but they recalculate the figures and decided to cut the business overhead by over 60%.

As I've said before, the extent of the cuts has surprised everyone and you are not allowing for these in your forecasts.
Cuts of this size to a business is not a one-hit-wonder, you get a constant pay off from this for years to come!

I'm not sure why the sudden turn around in opinion,

The finance re-organization was always the plan, hence the trimming of business and assets sale!

The info that came from CMD was already known, the only new information we got out of the presentation was about the extent of the cuts and the difference it will have on the price of oil they need to pay down debt and make a profit.