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The debt hasn't been forgotten here, almost every company in the world has debt. What is happening with TLW now is getting the deal done allows them to renegotiate the terms of the future payments which allows them not to fire sale their best assets.

The companies' lower break-even price now will allow them to be able to address the debt when oil starts to rise also.

The Institutional shorters have a large stake in here and won't go quietly, but when Total's Uganda general manager Pierre Jessua stated that the deal is basically approved it has now changed the future outlook for Tullow. Pierre will know every detail of the ongoing completion talks between TLW and the Gov and he's done what TLW can't just now, and told the market that the deal is basically done. This is the first real news of the deal being done, that can't be argued about!

This has been priced for the deal to fail and the shorts have been promoting this along with some analysts. They have attached TLW with PMO problems when in truth they couldn't be further apart!

Whether the deal is done this week or next week doesn't really matter as it will truly open up a lot of options on the way they take the company forward.

I said a few months ago that Tullow had an advantage over their peers in that they had started their cost-cutting well in advance and are now a far leaner company going forward. It now won't take much to change TLW future for the better.
A vaccine and oil sitting a little higher alone would change everything!

An extract from an interview with Total's Ugandan General Manager that has just been released.

On the Tullow transaction, basically, all hurdles have been overcome and should only be a matter of days or weeks to closing of the deal.

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/pierre-jessua-much-to-do-before-uganda-first-oil-flows-in-2024-2483176

Very true TG.

Oil up to almost $43 and this is down, that is not right at all!!

And this takes a 15% drop?

Uganda could complete any day but the share still goes down - all seems like shorters are getting info from somewhere, the same just before the RBL announcement!!!

The one good thing when speaking to any IR team is they can't lie or bum up a situation when it's in an email.
They wouldn't use the term progressing well if it was the opposite to that!

They wouldn't have set a date for CMD last week if they didn't think it was going to be approved soon. They could have left it for weeks before announcing a date at the end of the year.

I spoke to the IR team on Monday and they said that the deal is progressing well and there are no issues with it at all.

The Gov just needs to pull the finger out and move on!

A steadier business would help to move them on!

And we are looking at a 14% drop in the last 3.5 days?

According to a Ugandan minister, the deal was to complete in the middle of Aug!
It's starting to feel like Uganda is going to drag on and on, I hope Rahul is putting as much pressure on the Gov as he can?
Not sure what TLW can do to get this done? - Ask Total to put a little bit of pressure on the Gov to move this on?

Seems weird that someone would accept 10% less than it was an hour before?

Someone sold 1 million!

Thanks, Slift

What I'm finding hard to understand is why the Gov would want to risk this and drag their heels on it.

With the state of the oil industry around the world, you would have thought they would want to fast-tracked it and tied up Total and make sure they're going to see this through?

Slift

What does the 23rd date translate to, what are the implications of this if the deal has not completed by then?

Starting to slip again with no news!

Has anyone else been in touch with the IR team about Uganda?

I've spoken to them a couple of times since Aug and in Aug they said that it was very close to completion and they basically said the same thing to me a couple of weeks ago as well!

The Ugandan Gov have been sitting on this for months now for some reason?

If they can get the finger out and get Uganda completed, It would make them more of a takeover than a merger?

The Chinese major CNOOC has put in a substantial offer to acquire Occidental Petroleum's 30,000 barrels a day in Ghana, but it is not the only firm in the running.

Not sure how this will affect Tullow?

Uganda completion will give leverage on 2022 $650m maturity, so hopefully, we will hear soon?

With the CMD on 25th Nov, I'm expecting the completion anytime now.

The lenders will get full details of Tullow's plans well before the CMD so Tullow has set the 25th knowing that the deal will be done well before this.