Member Info for Davstock

For all those who took profit from last week's gains are fair enough, but to change what they're posting is a little strange, especially when the overall forecast is looking a lot more positive going forward. $500 million deposited into the account with $75millon to follow / Vaccines are about to be rolled out in the next few weeks / Opec is probably going to extend the oil cuts / Tullow roll out a realistic plan on CMD.Looking at what Tullow have done and the position they are in going forward.The business has been streamlined to a far greater extent than any analyst thought possible. If you had said a couple of years ago that Tullow will be running the business at a 60% savings, you would have been laughed off this board!They have managed to cut the debt down by 20% in a year that has seen Covid and very low oil price devastated most oilers and without having to sell any of their producing assets is again a way beyond what could have been expected.When oil prices recover and they will, Tullow has made itself into a company that can make a profit from a low oil environment and makes a good profit when oil is at a decent level.

There seems to be that members on here can turn on a sixpence! To be 100% positive then have the opposite opinion the next day is very disingenuous!

Super,
It was one of my main concerns aswell, that's why I've asked a few times.
The topic should be put to bed on this forum now.

I'm solely talking about Tullows business plan?

Not sure where you are getting a 300 year global depression from? When most see a slow but steady recovery when the vaccines kicks in.

Oil demand from this point on can only increase from the levels it is at just now!
Even a very slow recovery would a mean an increase.

The self funding was layed out on CMD, with the new slimmed down business going forward, $45 oil average over 2021 and $55's over the coming years will fund the business with enough profit to pay down debt and reward investors. It's very straightforward and transparent for all to see and understand.

I've asked Tullow on several occasions about a rights issue and I asked again on Wednesday straight after the presentation and they made it quite clear that they don't need to do a RI and have no plans to!

So with a 100% certainly there is no rights issue in their plan!

Patients is definitely needed!

It was 37 on Wednesday morning and now under 29!!!

Pictet + 0.27%

Massive cost cutting / Uganda deal done / CMD done / Oil sitting above $48!!!

I'm not sure what's going to lift this off the floor?

Worse is I topped up out of boredom today!!!

unjustified drop again today - Market makers seem to be desperate to send this back into the twenties!!!

Had 3 major things that had to be done for a brighter future for the company.

1. Make major cuts to the over-bloated business that the last chiefs had created. They were running the company as if it was as big as BP!
The cuts that have been achieved have been better than anyone's expectations. You can't underestimate what this will do for the company.

2. Sell Uganda assets and get the deal completed before year-end.

3. Get January RBL completed.

With 2 out of the 3 now completed, the last should be done in the next few weeks. After that Tullow will become a normal company getting on with the business of running the business!

Slift

See that now, hopefully when they confirm guidance in Jan it's a bit higher? Rahul had said that the savings that they are making will offset any production drop.

Shift

Wondering where you got 21 figures of 60-65 bopd from, I didn't notice info?
Thanks

That's a large percentage buy back from them!

I tried to work out all the shorts average price in Tullow but gave up!!!

If anybody knows please share, thanks

IMO,
A few months ago, there were a lot of agencies falling over each other to come out with a pessimistic outlook for oil demand for 2021, which at the time I thought was far too early to predict.

They already out of date with their forecast as oil is at $48 in November 2020!

Forgot to add,

This 10-year plan that has been set out is on their current assets and not finding any other reserves again!

At the very least they will make a large find in Suriname/Guyana at some point!

Once the market digests Tullow's new business plan they will see the merits it has for the coming years.

The $45 needed in 2021 is a good play on its own.
As soon as the first batch of the vaccine is distributed there will be a large pick up in oil prices and as soon as the vaccine kicks in there will a world frenzy not only for oil but almost everything.

2021 oil year average should easily be around $55, so they could pay a big part of the debt on that alone.

The presentation has confirmed for me that they are sitting ducks for a takeover now.
They have slimmed down the company by a massive 60%, which is what would-be buyers love.

They have shown buys how this company can make money with not a lot of changes.
I can see them being taken over in the next 12 months.

There's a bit of talk about the merits of the Uganda deal.

Without a doubt, the deal has been the single biggest thing to happen to Tullow. The timing along, when companies were struggling to get any kind of deals done and Tullow managed to pull this through to completion. It has defiantly saved the future of Tullow and allows it to make solid plans going forward.

Rahul's background was in M&A's, so he knows what he's doing there! If it does come to this, I would think it would only be a takeover and he wouldn't except anything less than the price he holds.

Looking at all that's happened to Tullow and the wider market this year, the way I see this going is that Rahul is tightening the business to a point that it will be able to make a profit and pay down debt on very low oil prices.

But with Rahul's experience and expertise, he will have them set up so they'll be too attractive for the big players to ignore! For a company of the size Tullow has reduced itself to, it has almost too many high quality assets for it's new size!

So I fear Tullow will get swallowed up in the not to distant future!