Member Info for Davstock

Well said Steward1

Odey is a purely speculative company, they always ride close to the wind.
They didn't foresee the $180 million sales just before the RBL. It caught them out, even the Tullows banks wouldn't have known about the sale until it went through this week!

Tullow has overnight changed the way the up and coming refinancing will play out.
They now will have $755 million sitting in a bank account ready for whatever purpose is needed.
They also will have the millions extra they are making at present with the price of oil.
And they now have well over 100 million in annual savings to throw in there as well.

These are massive bargaining tools they have at their disposal.

That would be a major positive!

https://www.oedigital.com/news/485200-tullow-oil-ceo-we-will-be-able-to-repay-the-debt

Rahul has publicly confirmed what the IR team had said to me and others, that the refinancing is purely a reorganising of time and payments, and there's no hiding agenda!

As he also said, they have $500 mil + $75 mil + $180 mil and $125 mil cost-saving, which will make the agreements a lot easier.

I also like the way they are not using the increased oil prices in their forecasts - which in turn will allow for some real improvements in the coming months.

Upped there short again - That's 4 times since 26th Jan???

The market is digesting the information and wants to know what's will be said tomorrow.

Major surprise and a very welcome one.

Add this to the Uganda sale that's been set aside and the $75 million due in from the FID and not to mention the rise in the oil price and suddenly things are looking a lot more positive!

Has more than enough funds to pay off the 2021 bond with cash to spare and have got a 15-month run-up to the 2022 bond. Depending on what oil averages over the 15 month period and what they can ram up their upstream oil in the up and coming drilling in the second quarter they could possibly be able to pay off the 2022 bond with the extra profits.

If they can average 68k over the 15 month period and oil averages $68 dollars over the same period, they will able to pay it off with the excess from their forecast - and these two averages look achievable.

I'm sure this will be one of the main topics with the banks at prescent.

$55 for 2022 and going forward is a very Conservative plan. Oils new future forecasts and the massive under investment in the industry, will cut Tullows 10 year plan down to a 5 year plan.

Yes noticed that earlier that it had taken a jump.

The Bondholders know in this 0% world they can get around 8% yield on these bonds - The ace that Tullow hold is their oil reserves which makes holding Tullow bonds an attractive and secure investment in today's climate!
The large untapped reserves are the reason why the RBL will get secured also.

Sorry you're right, it had the 4th same day as Odey.
Sorry!

Key Group lowered by 0.10%

Odey Asset upped by 0.03%

There is a way to stop them - Don't sell and your investment goes up!!!

Looks like they are at it again - drop at the end of the day!!!

Time for all to start buying again!

That's how I see it working out and it was the impression I got from them when speaking earlier on!

Well explained Roxey.

Oil sitting at year high $59 and this had a dodgy last half hour?

The Market makers didn't want this to break 30 today. They kept a low profile over the last 3 days with all the bad publicity that was around these dodgy deals, but now it's died down they have crept back in!

Investors should remember is that they can easily afford to pay off the 2021 bond and with oil prices over the next year they won't be far away from paying the 2022 bond with the profit from oil.

With RBL and the refinancing all going on at present, the banks get preferential access to their finances at all times and are in constant dialogue with each other on a daily basis. So to offer a 4-year contract for drilling in Ghana as this is all going on Bodes well!

Not to mention they have Spud in Suriname!

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/04/2169577/0/en/Maersk-Drilling-selected-for-long-term-drilling-campaign-by-Tullow-Oil.html

Been reassured by the IR team that the RBL is well underway and they see no issues getting it finalised in Feb and the debt refinance is also going in tandem with the RBL.

They also reiterated that the delay was genuinely down to the new lockdown and needed a bit more time for all to agree.