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On the news that PMO announced yesterday, I would expect them to drop 25-40% down. But Tullow's trouble is that with the board's silent treatment, the market has no choice but to think the worst. The market has to assume that they have no plans to pay the debt down or renegotiate and extend the repayment plan or even look for cheap asset purchases. They are taking the easy route and bagging TLW with the PMO trouble when in truth they are in two totally different positions and are approaching their troubles in different ways.
I'd hate to see what would happen if TLW coming out with some bad news of their own???

The silence stance the board has taken over the last 8 months is baffling to say the least, the new CEO seems to be following the party line. He's been on board for almost 2 months and we've not heard a peep from him?

I'm expecting Uganda to be wrapped up now basically, but who knows???
With a new supply going upstream last week in Ghana, The bank account about to be 500 million richer and Brent holding steady around $45, you would have thought TLW would be heading in the other direction.
It's almost a waste of the big news if Uganda deal gets tied up in the coming days with the share price so depressed?

TLW and PMO have two totally different business plans,
PMO is taking on more debt at a time when everyone is trying to reduce theirs.
TLW is selling non producing assets to reduce its debt. Luckily for Tullow, their non-producing assets are world-class finds.

The point is they have brought a new well into production, which has not happened to TLW for a hell of a long time so that makes it big news. So there is definitely something to say and at least worth an update.

The lack of info from the board has killed the recovery in the share.
There's the new ntomme-9 well that has just gone upstream last week, they could easily have brought out an update to say it's came online and we will assess the flow and update further on results day. The way the last 10 months have gone for this company you would think they would want to take some credit and advantage when something has gone right?

Every day you can sell these in the morning and buy back much cheaper in the afternoon!
I put a large chunk on sale this morning and got a 25.52 offer price and then canceled it. what an idiot!!!
This share is desperate for some sort of news to give it some sort of direction, it's just constantly drifting with the silence.

What I would like to see happen to the first round of asset sale from Uganda is obviously paying down a large chunk of the debt but also keep a percentage of the sale to look for cheap asset sales from other oilers.
I'm sure they could approach anadarko/occidental and see what percentage they are willing to give up for on say $100-150 million, I know they are desperate to off load assets after the takeover of anadarko last year! If TLW could purchase a larger percentage on assets they already control would be a major plus.
More supply means more profit to pay down debt. On the second round of asset sales totally concentrate on more of the debt reduction.

It all seems simple or am I being naive again???

This is probably the best news they have had this year? it beefs up their best asset Ghana, it may not add extra barrels but it will help them keep to the upper end of their forecast.
This is Newsworthy and it's about providing reassurance to your investors that your plan is heading in the right direction.

The board decided back in December to do the opposite to the last CEO and not give updates or give any news unless they have too, which has been very detrimental to the price of the share over the last few months. Except for the new CEO it's the same board that got TLW into the mess they are in today. It looks like they're petrified to make a mistake.
A good example is Ntomme, just when this share could do with some positive news, they decide to again go quiet.

The trouble with holding news back is the share has nothing to hold it up and will take large drops for no reason what so ever.
And if or when they bring positive news the share is starting from a very low point. What the board have to understand that when you invest in TLW the share price is all you have, there's no dividend for income, so if they want to encourage new investment they will have to look to improve the share price.

With oil over $45, we all know this shouldn't be sitting at the mid-twenties now, it's getting played with until there is some concrete news from the board! The board's decision not to give any updates on anything unless they have no choice has in my opinion been the wrong move, not sure who they are paying for their PR advice but it's not working and should be looked at!

The way I see the weeks leading up to the results, they will bring out an RNS on the completion of the Uganda deal, but then they will stay quiet until the 9th when the new CEO will announce his big plans for TLW and how he plans to spend the money / any more assets sales / Farmdowns / detailed update on Ghana.

Receiving the money alone should allow the analysts to see now TLW has some finance to allow it to start to change its own destiny.

I think it's what has been holding the share back over the last few weeks.

The news was not long out about the hold-up with the Ugandain Gov.

It does say that they think it shouldn't take any more than 2 more weeks.

https://www.independent.co.ug/government-yet-to-grant-tullow-sale-of-ugandan-assets/

Total agree.

The sooner they get the finance in from Uganda sale the better. It's been 9 months since they laid out this business plan to offload and pay down debt and technically nothing has been set in concrete yet except appointing the CEO. The market is waiting on some solid evidence that things are improving, ie money from sales. When that happens and oil stays solid the share price will see a more confident move upwards.

What was the point of the rise yesterday to then drop like a stone today???

Nobody expected Brent to be $45 by the end of the year never mind at the beginning of August so really should be a lot higher than this!
I think it's time I start trading with my shares like everyone else seems to be doing.

Ther are a few things that could happen:
IR / Takeover / Merger / Even a small share buyback if they manage to achieve the Billion dollar target.
When they have Uganda money in the bank, we may see more interest from other companies. But I can't see any IR at the level they are at present.

Brent turns a 3% swing today to head over $44 and this retreats again!!!
The board are the only people who can fix the mess they created.

It's an absolute scandal that the board has not purchased shares in the company since last year when it was the same board that allowed Tullow to get into the state they are in at present. They are getting paid handsomely and should at the very least purchase the stock out of guilt!
They've had plenty of opportunities to buy when they're not in a closed period.
It's actually unbelievable!!!

With a lot of little positives coming out over the last week but yet the price still falls?

Ntomme-9 about go upstream in the coming days.
Apache discovers large find in Suriname.
Guyana elections have just been finally settled.
Total SA announces that they want to fast track Uganda, should see this finalised soon.