The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
13x15,300x365 = 72,598,500
The US has just posted it's worst quarter since WW2. All shares with few exceptions, are down.
Slift Thanks for a thought provoking post.
Here's a reference from 1 May showing the Novacyte test as having 88.6% sensitivity and 90.6% specificty.
https://www.significancemagazine.com/science/667-comparing-and-assessing-covid-19-tests
This may explain why google wasn't turning up any results for "Novacyte Covid sensitivity". I keep a record of these critical numbers when I can find them. Research is moving on at a very fast pace so if anyone has more current figures then do post them on here.
Genedrive quote 100% sensitivity and 98.2% specificity for their test but there has been a news drought for some weeks which I find very worrying. I can't find any numbers at all for Avacta. I do think that this is a very high quality company but much of its work is at very early stages.
I have read articles which say that what is required is a fast less accurate test which can be followed up with a slower but more accurate test - using coarse and fine filters if you like.
I meant Sept 11. My reply seems to have landed in the wrong place.
I keep a spreadsheet of the various "trigger dates" for the shares I'm invested in and that's definitely one of my key dates.
Stokopedia has lists of shares that pass the criteria of various stock market gurus. HUR flags up on James Altucher's "Trading below Cash" screen. It kind of reinforces the points people are making here. it certainly flags up on my personal "Cheaps as Chips" screen.
I've doubled my holding. Using cautious figures ( as I'm not in the business of deluding myself) I couldn't come up with a P/E close to 3 ! I think we're in a situation similar to mid March where almost all shares fell in a knee jerk reaction to the bad news. I t just takes a little while for the market to catch on.
I also have a suspicion that maybe the new management is deliberately under playing expectations in order to get a sea change in sentiment later on .... but on that I'm just guessing.
No prediction on SP but based on reasonable assumptions I can't calculate a P/E above 3.
Sorry, but "a few 100k doses per month" will not cut it as the global number of covid cases is currently close to 15 million and rising. A massive ramp up in production will be required and no doubt, by what ever means necessary, supplied !
Do not look at the share price. Look at the potential value to the company. There are many cases where the share price has multiplied and then multiplied even more - consider Apple and Amazon as obvious examples. I just wish I had the conviction to sell the farm !
There is no treatment (unless you believe Trump and Bolsanaro) and a vaccine most likely won't get here until next year. This is a global pandemic and so far this is the only hope to prevent a patient going over the edge into the much more deadly second phase of the disease.
Do you have any idea of how vast the potential market is? Let's hope it can be delivered as rapidly as possible to those who need it.