Member Info for Davidgeorge

COALCommodity
364.00+6.00+1.68%
08:29:00 AMMI Indication

Supercharger, there are actually TWO divis being paid on Sept 22 (and going ex on Sept 1) - the interim of 10p, as you say, and the special of 9p (11c) - not at all bad and likely more to come next May!

Glencore (LON:GLEN – Get Rating)‘s stock had its “outperform” rating restated by investment analysts at Royal Bank of Canada in a note issued to investors on Thursday, MarketBeat.com reports. They currently have a GBX 550 ($6.65) price objective on the natural resources company’s stock. Royal Bank of Canada’s price target suggests a potential upside of 16.43% from the company’s previous close.

A number of other research analysts also recently weighed in on GLEN. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft set a GBX 560 ($6.77) price objective on Glencore in a research note on Monday, August 8th. Credit Suisse Group set a GBX 570 ($6.89) price objective on Glencore in a research note on Friday, August 5th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut their price objective on Glencore from GBX 620 ($7.49) to GBX 590 ($7.13) and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research note on Friday, August 5th. Barclays reissued an “overweight” rating and issued a GBX 700 ($8.46) price objective on shares of Glencore in a research note on Monday, August 8th. Finally, The Goldman Sachs Group set a GBX 600 ($7.25) target price on Glencore in a report on Monday, August 8th. Eight research analysts have rated the stock with a buy rating, Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company presently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average price target of GBX 576.15 ($6.96).

483 now. Top of the FTSE Leader Board. Nothing, of course, is ever simple. And nothing normally goes as hoped for or expected. But in very simple business terms: everyday the Coal price is over 315 (now 354) and all other things being equal, GLEN is making more cash than it did in the record breaking first half. I have a very very small business. But wouldn't anyone want to own a business with a division that was so productive? Can't last, of course

Nice rise this morning. Can't see SP heading anywhere downwards in run up to very tasty ex-divi date week after next. Just looking at the real cash cow: the coal price. In its trading Update on June 15 GLEN said it was expecting super big profits because coal price averaged 315 per tonne in first six months. Now at the start of H2 - since July 1 - the coal price has been about 350ish. Can anyone see it going down as we head to autumn and winter? GLEN is the world's biggest coal trader - for good or ill- and it's minting billions now because of the high coal price. Other commodities such as copper have gone a little off the boil but have an excellent long term prognosis. Coal is the super-charged engine room and explains why GLEN is simply raking in the cash. Later this year, it says, many of the billions tied up in working capital are expected to be released and will add to the cash pile. As long as there is no wider market slump - and that's a big if- surely the fundamentals seem really very very good indeed?

Eadwig if you go to top of this page and click on GLEN Share news then go to entry at 5 August Broker Ratings and scroll down

Credit Suisse raises Glencore price target to 570 (560) pence - 'outperform'
JPMorgan cuts Glencore price target to 590 (620) pence - 'overweight'
Bank of America raises Glencore price target to 480 (470) pence - 'neutral'

Ivan has over 9 per cent of all GLEN shares - more than 1.2 billion shares. SO he will have made more than $330m from today's two divis

Lefto. If u have 7000 shares at ex-dividend date of 1 Sept then u get 7000 x .24c or 7000 x 20p, so £1400. If u had these 7000 shares back in April you will ALSO have been paid 7000 x 13c (or about 11p) so £910. So this year you will have had £910 plus £1400 so, yes, over £2000.

So total divis for 2022 are 2x13 plus 11 (Special) = 37c or c.30.5p. That's about 7.5% at current SP. Has the dividend yield ever been this high??

Earnings per share up from .10 to.92 - that's 800 per cent! The numbers really are "exceptional" as Gary Nagel said

The big traders are presumably at the beach, which is really where I should be. Just their juniors in charge. Still, it's up to 459 (tho HL only showing 455). More to come today and tomorrow, surely? The numbers are soooo good. Net Income up 865%?

Income up 846%; EBITDA up 119%

Key statement of income and cash flows highlights1
:
Revenue 134,435 93,805 43 203,751
Adjusted EBITDA? 18,918 8,654 119 21,323
Adjusted EBIT? 15,415 5,305 191 14,495
Income for the period attributable to equity holders 12,085 1,277 846 4,974
Earnings per share (Basic) (US$) 0.92 0.10 820 0.38
Funds from operations (FFO)2? 15,425 7,310 111 17,057
Cash generated by operating activities before working capital changes,
interest and tax 18,290 7,181 155 16,725

last night we said 11c ! Lol

11c Special DIv!

Excellent work Living. Maybe the estimated $3bn for divis already includes the interim of 13c which we know we are getting. So that would leave 11 cents for a special? IF, and a big IF, the $3bn estimate is correct....we'll know in 13 hours!!

If EBITDA has risen 110 per cent and Net Income has gone up by an astonishing 850% then most of this free cash would have to be already tied up as working capital to produce no or just a small Special Divi. These are very big numbers aren't they?

EBITDA: Glencore is expected to report earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $18.76 billion for the first half of the year, according to a Visible Alpha market consensus averaged from eight brokers. This would be up from $8.65 billion the same period a year earlier, reflecting a significant increase in the profitability of its coal business.

NET INCOME: Net income is expected to soar to $10.53 billion in the first half from $1.28 billion a year earlier, according to the same market consensus.

WHAT TO WATCH:

--CASH FLOW: Glencore will report very strong profits for the first half of the year but cash-flow generation is likely to lag the earnings increase due to the build up of working capital. Chief Executive Gary Nagle warned on Friday of a significant increase in net working capital in line with higher commodity prices and volatility. RBC's analyst Tyler Broda said Wednesday that the potential impact to cash flows "could be nearly anything," considering the lack of visibility on the company's marketing positions.

--DIVIDEND: This build up of working capital could result in higher-than-expected net debt and a lower dividend. Considering this, Broda has slashed its interim dividend forecast to $3.0 billion from $7.5 billion. "The cash is not lost, however, and will be returned in line with policy in due course," the analyst said.

--MARKETING: In addition to mining, Glencore also makes significant amounts of money in the business of trading commodities across the globe, where it stands out as a major player. In June, the company forecast first-half marketing earnings before interest and taxes of more than $3.2 billion, and said it expected a more normal performance in the second half.

Write to Jaime Llinares Taboada at jaime.llinares@wsj.com; @JaimeLlinaresT

""Our financial performance - both industrial and marketing - was very strong during the period, particularly on account of buoyant energy markets, which will be a feature in the release of next week's half-year report.

"Allied with the strong results, particularly in marketing and mostly energy related, our net working capital has significantly increased during the period, in line with materially higher oil, gas and coal prices, and their elevated market volatilities.

"These factors result in a timing mismatch between the net positive fair value of physical forward contracts, which are not margined, and related derivative hedging requirements, which are margined."

Gary Nagle added that various commodity exchanges had also "significantly" increased their initial margining requirements."
*****
The last sentences about a "timing mismatch" and "hedging" sound like Glen is saying has loads and loads of profit/ cash but lots of this is somehow tied up in forward contracts so won't be coming to shareholders.....??

Today/s RNS sounds a little downbeat about copper. But it does say "very strong" financial results will be announced next week. That can only mean means a lot of profit, which surely has to be paid out in a big Special??