Member Info for Davidgeorge

Crow what's your figure? are you looking at Futures or actual price per mt?
Googling this, it Looks like coal (not futures) was 425 per mt last May. Now 170. I remember it being 315 back in August when GLEN released its report saying coal was at record highs but expected to fall back substantially.
Coal, mirroring natural gas prices, has fallen far

Yesterday she was down at 531 now 557, that's more than 5 per cent up in two trading days. . Will she pull back again or march through the 560's next week? Reckon some of us are making very nice sums

She's up 10 per cent since her most recent low of 504 last week. Up 33 per cent in last six months. all this despite coal price halving. Impressive she is. Well done to all who held on or bought on the dips.
FTSE100 at 7860, within 30-odd pts of an all time high - it last reached this point over 5 years ago. Yet the UK is supposed to be entering a recession. Baffling

(continued) The company announced “top up” returns of $4.5 billion in the first half of 2022, through a special dividend and a $3 billion share buyback program. In keeping with Glencore’s strategy to return surplus capital to investors, there could be more to come. “This narrative could build up in the stock going into the full-year earnings,” Citi analysts said last month. They have a Buy rating and a £7 price target.

China’s reopening, as it shifts away from its zero-Covid policy, should also benefit miners, though for how long is less certain. J.P. Morgan analysts note that the risks mount into the second and third quarters, citing potential Covid spikes and weaker iron ore seasonality. Glencore is one of the bank’s top mining picks to play China’s reopening.

Despite its bumper year of gains, the stock still looks cheap, trading at 6.5 times 2023 earnings estimates, below the industry average of 11 times, according to FactSet data. While Glencore is somewhat at the mercy of commodities prices, there’s enough to suggest that this undervalued stock is worth digging into.

Mining Giant Glencore Has 2 Ways to Win
By Callum KeownFollow
Jan. 11, 2023 3:00 am ET
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Nickel smelting at Glencore's Sudbury Integrated Nickel Operations in Ontario, Canada. Glencore is one of the world's largest globally diversified natural resource companies.
Courtesy of Glencore
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Mining and commodities trading giant Glencore was one of the FTSE 100’s top performers last year, and it could be set to repeat the trick in 2023.

Glencore (ticker: GLEN.UK) was the third-best performing stock in 2022, behind defense giant BAE Systems (BA.UK) and publisher Pearson (PSO), climbing 47%, largely driven by record thermal coal prices.

The miner’s exposure to coal is also what makes it an attractive proposition in 2023, while China’s reopening should push metals prices higher, adding to Glencore’s upside. Over the longer term, its status as one of the world’s leading producers and marketers of copper leaves it well placed to benefit from the global transition toward greener energy.

Record coal prices, largely a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a subsequent natural-gas shortage helped Glencore’s earnings jump by $10 billion to a record $18.9 billion in the six months to June 2022. The company said around $8 billion of that increase came from its coal business. With coal prices remaining high, Glencore’s full-year earnings next month could be another catalyst for the stock.

Glencore is winding down its coal assets. The company described its policy as a “responsibly managed decline and stewardship of our coal business” at an investor day last month.

“Glencore’s sticking by thermal coal has proven to be a major advantage over its peers,” Liberum analyst Ben Davis says. He adds that “prices have the potential to remain elevated far above marginal cost of production in the long term.” Davis has a Buy rating on the stock with a 6.70 pound sterling ($8.17) target price, 23% above Monday’s price. The stock is up 10% since this column last wrote about the company in mid-August.

The policy has led to some environmental, social, and governance, or ESG, concerns, with a number of institutional investors filing a shareholder resolution earlier this month asking Glencore to explain how it fits in with the Paris Agreement and its own net-zero commitment. Glencore said it will publish its next climate report in March to update on progress since its 2020 strategy.

At the other end of the ESG scale, Glencore continues to invest in what it calls “key transition metals” such as copper, nickel, and cobalt, which it says will support global decarbonization.

“Glencore’s copper and cobalt exposure remains attractive in the long term, and the near-term upside offered by thermal coal more than offsets the long-term outlook at this point,” BMO Capital Markets analyst Alexander Pearce says. He has an Outperform rating on the stock, with a £6.50 target price.

Goro. Dividends (called return on capital) are twice year. The total expected this year is c8-9 per cent. The details are likely to be announced next month. The payments come in two lumps, May and October

Nice move up so far today. US jobs report looks positive on inflation falling and robust economyfor SP

GLEN is world's biggest coal trader...massive increase in coal price last year was largely why she made $18bn in free cash flow

warm winter weather is bad for coal (coal down massively over last few days) and gas (Cenrtica/British Gas is biggest faller on FTSE100 today, followed by GLEN.....

GLEN is nicely up today - along with a big rise in the whole of the FTSE100. Odd as overnight the FTSE futures was showing no sign of a rise on opening. Not sure why?

Happy New year evi, billi and the GLEN stalwarts. Hoping for a nice rise this week.
GoroM posted earlier about copper output falling to ask will this impact GLEN SP? Anyone know?

Nice rise this morning. Is that because China reopening?

nice movement upwards toward 560s again - guess its also because FTSE is going up

yes i see...and more hopeful news out of China re Covid easing

sudden jump up to 548...2 per cent in a few minutes...anyone know why?

thanks Evi, that's one of the best things ever written on GLEN.
It seems the Investor call last week disappointed because production forecasts had fallen. That article explains how that might actually be positive for the SP in the short to medium term.
The other reason why last week's investor call disappointed was that annualise free cash flow for 2023 was "only" $14.6bn - a fall from $18.6bn for 2022. But $14.6bn is still a massive figure - just compare to nearly all other FTSE100 companies. This is shed loads of cash.
Now Glen only gives away $1bn plus 25% of FCF before any special divi - it is notoriously mean to shareholders like that. That still leave 75% of FCF for 2023 or nearly $10bn of spare cash after paying interim and final divis. This is just such a lot of money, I think people are forgetting. Remember also that in April 2020 the SP was 146p, so that's an incredible 400 % increase in two and a half years. Every tine the SP drops i think about those days...

SP now back to within 1p of what it was before the Investor Update

This is the policy for shareholders returns on p19 of the report today:

Sustainable base distribution
comprising a fixed payout of
$1bn from Marketing cash
flows plus 25% of Industrial
attributable free cash flows
Additional cash periodically
returned to shareholders via
special distributions /
buybacks, as sustainable
surplus capital materialises
SHAREHOLDER
DIST

Living, p23 of today's slide report: free cash flow for 2023 is projected at $14.3bn
How does that compute in terms of shareholder returns?

From Motley Fool....

2 FTSE 100 dividend stocks Hargreaves Lansdown investors are buying!
Hargreaves Lansdown investors are loading up on these FTSE index dividend stocks today. Should I join in to boost my passive income?

Royston Wild?
Published 5 December, 3:39 pm GMT
BP.
GLEN
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You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

I’m searching for the best dividend stocks to buy for 2023. Here are two that Hargreaves Lansdown investors like at the moment.

9.3% dividend yield!

1M

Glencore (LSE: GLEN) sits at the top of the list of most popular stocks with Hargreaves Lansdown investors. The mining business has accounted for 1.55% of all buy orders during the last seven days.

Its share price has soared 61% during the past 12 months. This leaves it trading on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.9 times for next year. It also carries a market-beating 9.3% dividend yield at current prices.

Encouragingly for dividend investors the predicted dividend is covered two times over by anticipated earnings. This gives a wide margin of safety in case profits come in lower than expected.

Watch for the supercycle
Cyclical shares like commodities producers could fall in 2023 if the global economy tanks. Weak growth translates into lower demand for raw materials. But I believe Glencore’s rock-bottom valuation reflects this possibility.

In fact, signs that China is loosening Covid-19 restrictions are a good omen for mining businesses for next year. The Asian economic powerhouse accounts for around 70% and 50% of the world’s iron ore and copper alone.

I think metals and energy producer and trader Glencore could be a great investment for the long term too. The world looks set for a fresh commodities supercycle driven by the transition to green energy and urbanisation in emerging markets.