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very helpful quotes from UBS Billy.. are we able to work out how $5bn in divis computes into cents per share?
despite the coal issue, other prospect for GLEN are really strong and i reckon 526 is an excellent buying opportunity.
GLENDA is very sensitive to coal prices. Coal futures down 6% today, TGA, which is a pure coal play, down 5%. Both Coal futures and coal itself massively down over last six months
The booming coal price in the first six months of 2022 (due to war) was a major profit generator, as the August first half results showed. But as DavidSp says we are fairly new in the above £5 territory and it is not surprising that GLEN moves around quite a bit as she settles into what is basically a re-rating...She was the third best performer in the FTSE100 last year and we are hoping for a big divi increase soon. Patience is the key ....
Powell said on Tuesday that he was expecting to see "significant" declines in inflation this year, but also acknowledged that interest rates may need to rise further amid job market strength.
Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said: "The FTSE 100 has hit a fresh record high, surpassing its all-time peak from Friday with BP and Glencore leading the charge
I think most predictions are in the 8-9 per cent mark which would be a big rise on last year. As I understand it the calculation for this year's divi is based on last year's free cash flow which, if i recall, was 18bn (dollars i think) in first half and 14bn in second half. The GLEN div/payout policy is $1bn plus 25 per cent of free cash flow. So that would be 1bn plus 25 per cent of 32bn which makes a total of 9bn in divs/buybacks. That is exactly twice the $4,5 bn last year. About half of this would be buybacks. Any part of this calculation which is wrong affects the likely final figure
BTW chaps here are the next dates in the corporate calendar starting next week:
01/02/2023 Production Report for the 12 months ended 31 December 2022
15/02/2023 Preliminary Annual Results 2022
Copper’s Rally Keeps Rolling Along. China Will Drive the Comeback.
By Myra P. Saefong
Jan. 19, 2023 3:30 am ET
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China’s lifting of its strict Covid policies will help boost demand for copper.
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Just a few weeks into the new year, copper prices have recouped most of what they lost in all of 2022, buoyed by prospects for higher demand from China as it eases Covid-19 restrictions.
“The macro headwinds that we had in 2022 will become macro tailwinds in 2023,” says Boris Mikanikrezai, head of metals research and strategy at commodity pricing agency Fastmarkets. China is ending its strict zero-Covid policy, and the U.S. is moving from aggressive monetary policy tightening to a “somewhat less hawkish Fed in 2023, on the back of encouraging inflation data,” he says.
As Strong as Steel
Most-active copper futures posted a nearly 15% loss last year, but prices gained almost 11% this year, as of Jan. 17—the best year-to-date performance through that date since 1980, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Copper futures traded as high as $4.355 a pound on Jan. 18, the highest since June.
The implications of China’s zero-Covid policy are significant for supply and demand, and therefore prices, says Mikanikrezai. The International Copper Study Group estimates that China’s share of world copper usage was over 55% in 2021.
The end of the zero-Covid policy will be a “great tailwind for copper prices,” says Mikanikrezai. A boost in China’s copper consumption is likely in the months ahead and that’s driving “speculative demand higher.”
Even so, he believes China’s reopening will be “gradual, and the fundamental impact on demand for commodities is most likely to be felt in the second half of this year.”
China began easing its Covid policy in November and lifted most of its remaining measures in December. Following that, China’s consumer price index rose 1.8% in December from a year earlier, on the heels of an expected economic rebound.
Al Chu, lead portfolio manager for the BNY Mellon Natural Resources DLDRX –1.64% fund (ticker: DLDRX), says China’s zero-Covid policy hasn’t had a meaningful effect on copper supply, and for demand, the “active negative effects have been fairly benign.”
Physical copper supplies globally and in China are “at very low levels, implying healthy supply/demand dynamics,” he says, and China continued to import a large amount of copper throughout 2022. China’s copper concentrate imports totaled 25.27 million metric tons in 2022, a record high, according to Reuters’ records of data from the General Administration of Customs.
Copper has also moved higher on the back of a fall in the U.S. dollar since the start of the year, based on expectations for fewer U.S. Federal R
top of the FTSE100 leader board again. Record highs. Big div coming. Best company in the FTSE100?
incredible day... record highs. Can't remember a better day for GLEN
certainly nice move upwards this a.m. Can she get into the early 570's?
I realise this is confusing. Coal Futures are not down very much, as the article you mention says. And I think Crow is referring to coal futures
But GLEN is not dealing in coal futures, it is trading in actual real coal. Loads of it. And the price of actual real coal has plummetted - as with the price of gas -.in the last six months This is why it said in it's August statement that it had made so much money in the first half of 2022, because the price of real actual coal which it had traded in the first six months had rocketed because of the war. But since then, the price of real coal has fallen. Incredibly this fall - while making an impact on the SP last week - has not affected sentiment to GLEN which is rocking
evi, these are coal Futures. The actual price of coal is down by 65 per cent.
Today: Name Price Unit
Coal 170.00 USD per Ton
Crow if you can access this website.....it shows coal at 425 in March
Coal PRICE Today | Live Price of Coal per Ouncehttps://markets.businessinsider.com › commodities › coal-...
Ab
Crow what's your figure? are you looking at Futures or actual price per mt?
Googling this, it Looks like coal (not futures) was 425 per mt last May. Now 170. I remember it being 315 back in August when GLEN released its report saying coal was at record highs but expected to fall back substantially.
Coal, mirroring natural gas prices, has fallen far
Yesterday she was down at 531 now 557, that's more than 5 per cent up in two trading days. . Will she pull back again or march through the 560's next week? Reckon some of us are making very nice sums
She's up 10 per cent since her most recent low of 504 last week. Up 33 per cent in last six months. all this despite coal price halving. Impressive she is. Well done to all who held on or bought on the dips.
FTSE100 at 7860, within 30-odd pts of an all time high - it last reached this point over 5 years ago. Yet the UK is supposed to be entering a recession. Baffling
(continued) The company announced “top up” returns of $4.5 billion in the first half of 2022, through a special dividend and a $3 billion share buyback program. In keeping with Glencore’s strategy to return surplus capital to investors, there could be more to come. “This narrative could build up in the stock going into the full-year earnings,” Citi analysts said last month. They have a Buy rating and a £7 price target.
China’s reopening, as it shifts away from its zero-Covid policy, should also benefit miners, though for how long is less certain. J.P. Morgan analysts note that the risks mount into the second and third quarters, citing potential Covid spikes and weaker iron ore seasonality. Glencore is one of the bank’s top mining picks to play China’s reopening.
Despite its bumper year of gains, the stock still looks cheap, trading at 6.5 times 2023 earnings estimates, below the industry average of 11 times, according to FactSet data. While Glencore is somewhat at the mercy of commodities prices, there’s enough to suggest that this undervalued stock is worth digging into.
Mining Giant Glencore Has 2 Ways to Win
By Callum KeownFollow
Jan. 11, 2023 3:00 am ET
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Nickel smelting at Glencore's Sudbury Integrated Nickel Operations in Ontario, Canada. Glencore is one of the world's largest globally diversified natural resource companies.
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Mining and commodities trading giant Glencore was one of the FTSE 100’s top performers last year, and it could be set to repeat the trick in 2023.
Glencore (ticker: GLEN.UK) was the third-best performing stock in 2022, behind defense giant BAE Systems (BA.UK) and publisher Pearson (PSO), climbing 47%, largely driven by record thermal coal prices.
The miner’s exposure to coal is also what makes it an attractive proposition in 2023, while China’s reopening should push metals prices higher, adding to Glencore’s upside. Over the longer term, its status as one of the world’s leading producers and marketers of copper leaves it well placed to benefit from the global transition toward greener energy.
Record coal prices, largely a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a subsequent natural-gas shortage helped Glencore’s earnings jump by $10 billion to a record $18.9 billion in the six months to June 2022. The company said around $8 billion of that increase came from its coal business. With coal prices remaining high, Glencore’s full-year earnings next month could be another catalyst for the stock.
Glencore is winding down its coal assets. The company described its policy as a “responsibly managed decline and stewardship of our coal business” at an investor day last month.
“Glencore’s sticking by thermal coal has proven to be a major advantage over its peers,” Liberum analyst Ben Davis says. He adds that “prices have the potential to remain elevated far above marginal cost of production in the long term.” Davis has a Buy rating on the stock with a 6.70 pound sterling ($8.17) target price, 23% above Monday’s price. The stock is up 10% since this column last wrote about the company in mid-August.
The policy has led to some environmental, social, and governance, or ESG, concerns, with a number of institutional investors filing a shareholder resolution earlier this month asking Glencore to explain how it fits in with the Paris Agreement and its own net-zero commitment. Glencore said it will publish its next climate report in March to update on progress since its 2020 strategy.
At the other end of the ESG scale, Glencore continues to invest in what it calls “key transition metals” such as copper, nickel, and cobalt, which it says will support global decarbonization.
“Glencore’s copper and cobalt exposure remains attractive in the long term, and the near-term upside offered by thermal coal more than offsets the long-term outlook at this point,” BMO Capital Markets analyst Alexander Pearce says. He has an Outperform rating on the stock, with a £6.50 target price.
Goro. Dividends (called return on capital) are twice year. The total expected this year is c8-9 per cent. The details are likely to be announced next month. The payments come in two lumps, May and October
Nice move up so far today. US jobs report looks positive on inflation falling and robust economyfor SP