Member Info for daveycaferacer

http://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/astrazeneca-builds-case-for-adding-savolitinib-to-iressa-tagrisso nothing new but nice to see coverage from Fierce Biotech on the latest Savolitinib update

Canaccord Genuity has today upgraded its ADR price target to $38.00 https://stocknews.com/news/hcm-canaccord-genuity-reiterates-buy-rating-38-pt/

Excellent update from the World Conference on Lung Cancer For any Twitter Users interested in comments from many medical professionals it's worth looking at #WCLC2017 There appears to be a lot of enthusisam and interest in this combination judging by the amount of posts on the subject by attendees at the conference

The progress continues as the Company delivers against clinical targets ;-) Plenty of news still due in the coming weeks and months I continue to buy

This provides a better more comprehensive article on the subject, which includes info about CFDA's reforms to speed up domestic approvals as well as approvals using non-China studies https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-10-09/china-launches-overhaul-of-drug-approval-in-win-for-big-pharma This is excellent news

It is therefore possible, where we have studies outside of China (SK for Savolitinib/Docetaxel combination or UK for Savolitinib/Durvalumab) that this data could be used - this could accelerate getting China approval and more importantky, CUT COSTS and avoid the lengthy costly trials in all geographies or any bridging studies in China where a drug has been trialed elsewhere. This news is important IMO

China will allow use of some drugs and medical devices based on approval by foreign regulators, the government said Monday http://www.biopharmadive.com/news/china-drug-trials-manufacturing-generics-cfda/439487/ http://health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/pharma/china-to-allow-some-drugs-based-on-foreign-approvals/61006250

Press Release For your interest, Christian Hogg, Chief Executive Officer of Chi-Med, spoke at the 15th Medical Innovations Summit of the Royal Society of Medicine last month. A video of his presentation has now been posted to the RSM website and can be viewed here: https://videos.rsm.ac.uk/video/chi-med-global-development-for-oncology-and-immunological-therapy. A copy of the slides he presented can be downloaded from the Chi-Med website at http://www.chi-med.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/pre170916-rsm.pdf.

clearly I mean, for Savolitinib getting BT designation, if we can get that in 2nd line setting it would be huge

yes, thatnks miti - this is excellent news, I wonder what this could mean for the Combination getting BT designation? https://www.twst.com/update/astrazeneca-plc-tagrisso-granted-breakthrough-therapy-designation-by-us-fda-for-the-1st-line-treatment-of-patients-with-egfr-mutation-positive-non-small-cell-lung-cancer/

Yes, Genmab is very interesting, and is included in our Annual Results Deck, however I like Exelixis and Juno simply because big pharma are on the lookout for deals and acquisitions such as the one just announced whereby Gilead will acquire Kite. Whilst I have diversified slightly HCM also remains my largest holding and I continue to buy, as I will be for a number of years.

yes, and their 1 year price targets on HCM are ALWAYS way off, for example the current 1 year target consensus is $30......maybe they need to revise that Even Stifel and Edison financial metrics tend to be exceeded by the Company so currently, the track record of Chi-Med is as good as it gets I continue to buy

very good points as always miti - I am also intrigued as to whether AZ can make any headway with Breakthrough Therapy designation in PRCC as we've not heard any more on that for some time. Also intrigued as to why Lily didn't take up global rights ot Frquintinib (I assume they have deferred until mid 2018)

B B sorry, you are ciorrect re Incyte, FY16 reva $1105m, EBITDA $203m, Google Finance was showing incorrect earnings and EPS info Incyte is the size and scale I think we could be withing the next 5 or 6 years based on pipeline success and Analayst forecasts

Maru - yes, I don't think we will become profitable until 2020 but that's the nature of the business I suppose Incyte has sales in excess of $1bn p.a and they've never made a prfit, although like us, they are due to have positive numbers within the next few years. Genmab is another one to look at, loss making for years and now profits are starting to kick in, and when they start they will ramp up very quickly. The other thing to note is partnered assets such as Frquintinib. $20-$35m nett income at time of peak sales and that will be pure net income, straight to the bottiom line.

yes Matt! well, I think that is out of date re Intellectual Property. I also think they are very conservative compared with what we see with peers such as Genmab and Incyte plus others. They focus on P/E. Incyte is a great example, no Earnings or nett oncome but a P/S of 22. I just think Edison use tradtional conservative valuatuion metrics, whereas the U.S. Biopharma market tends to focus a lot more on the future potential. I still maintain this will be at least a $20bn mcap company by 2025. I continue to buy.

Personally I take the Warren Buffet approach, and the current Directors approach, don't sell. The CEO, the Chairman and the Company Secretary have never sold a share because I suspect, they know that the largest shareholder value is yet to come. On July 31st Simon To, Chairman of Chi-Med, said: “Chi-Med’s consistent strategy over the past 16 years has generated considerable shareholder value, and we believe it is now poised to deliver substantially more. The other thing Maru is, have you seen the latest Edison research? It has some great info about possible future numbers:- http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/hutchison-china-meditech718311/preview/

sorry, here's the missing site info......... https://finbox.io/HCM/models/dcf-ebitda-exit-10yr

I have estimated the future valuation of the Company based on a variety of metrics and looking directly at peers. I've also blended the metrics of P/S, P/E and EV/EBITDA in the sector across Europe, China and the U.S. too, in order to get a realistic valuation. For peers, take a look at Incyte, Genmab & Exelixis and you will get a good idea. Typical valuations are:- P/S - anywhere from 15 to 40 (Genmab) EV/EBTDA - anywhere from 10 to 70 (Genmab) Slides 71-72 on the Annual Results slidedeck shows some of these competitors The following site has the estimated Revs and EBITDA (taken from Analyst consensus) up to 2026. If the market gives us a valuation on similar lines to Genmab P/S would give circa $40bn and EV/EBITDA would give circa $22bn which gives a blended mcap of $31bn, which is circa 9 x today's valuation Genmab and Incyte are the two companies that I track in terms of how the market values them.

U.S Investor Bulletin Boards continue to increase in followers and posters - the BGNE deal with Celgene seems to have spurred people on to look at others - watchers/posters on the most popular site are still in the low hundreds, which is nice to see, no need for the herd to arrive and spoil things....interesting that the comparisons people mention are the same as in the coporate presentation deck in the main