Member Info for daveycaferacer

Recenet CNBC CEO interview now posted https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/11/15/pchinese-biotechs-rise-on-the-global-pharma-scene.html

Just because the Company may not take legal action against the former CEO does not discharge him from potential liabilities. The co. may elect not to take legal action against him, the SFO may take a different course of action.

I agree Azurite, and the CEO said back in March they were working on 2 or 3 things which could radically change guidance and I am sure he was referring to things other than just the recent placing! Celgene had an appetite to do a massive commercial deal with Beigene and they have no current commercial infrastructure. We do however appear to have a fantastic commercial organisation that could presumably take on someone's China operation and run it so they could focus on their non China Business (Eli Lilly perhaps??) For large U.S Biopharmas there must surely be an attraction in using someone like Chi-Med for China commercialisation, especially as Chi-Med has a great regulatory ecosystem in house. As a mainly U.S Biopharma, why not leverage that rather than trying to create it yourself?

Matt. I agree 100% My forecast valuation is based on us actually achieving sales of >$1bn, with associated EBITDA and net income I am not suggesting for one minute we will have a mcap of $20bn unless we achieve the types of sales and earnings numbers being talked about by the Analysts, but if we do, then I think that kind of mcap is achievable I base that view on peers like Incyte, Genmab etc

Is the Company waiting for the conclusion of the SFO investigation before taking legal action against the previous CEO? Get on with it pls.

Hi matt, which ones are pie in the sky? Are you referring to things such as P/S, P/E or EV/EBITDA? I look at Companies like Incyte, Genmab, Vertex ext to get a view on those types of metrics If you think revenues will be in excess of $1bn then what's wrong with an mcap of $22bn? Look at Genmab or Incyte for a comparison. I know they are not China focused but then look at Jiangsu Hengrui on a P/S of 16....

�250 per share ior close to it s perfectly achievable in my opinion Fast forward 9 years to 2026 Revs (based on a number of Analysts forecasts) = $1046m EBITDA $324m *P/S 22 *EV/EBITDA 70 *P/E 79 *Net margin 20% *(typical for sector) Blended mcap $20.8bn = price per share = �238 per share (was �250 prior to recent new share issue) That is my very conservative estimate. I look at Incyte, Vertex, Genmab and Jiangsu Hengrui for comparisons, although the latter is really China focused, where we will be more global in nature

The Directors keep buying, I am following them

I continue to buy regularly until at least 2026 when the share price will be circa �250 so whether I buy next week at �53 or a bit lower makes no real difference in my timescales

Hmmmmm i am making a further largish purchase of shares next week, this is not good!

Sentiment on the main U,S Investor Bulletin Board Stocktwits:- 100% BULLISH 0% BEARISH Followers of $HCM have also increased significantly

Vol / Avg. 323,341.00/86,111.00 final NASDAQ numbers for Tues 15th Nov There was a large amount of buying on NASDAQ, possibly prompted by the CEO's appearance on CNBC??? It certainly looks as if the Company's profile is being raised as more people and specialist investors take on board what the incredible prospects are....

One of the least shorted stocks on NASDAQ Short Percent 0.08% Short Interest 99.48 thousand Float 121.5 million Short Ratio 1.09 Market Cap $3.81 billion Market Maker Activity Daily Short Volume

https://www.chartmill.com/analyze.php?utm_source=stocktwits&utm_medium=TA&utm_content=TA&utm_campaign=social-tracking#/HCM

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/11/15/pchinese-biotechs-rise-on-the-global-pharma-scene.html

Vol / Avg. 304,751.00/86,111.00 + 9.54% Not helpful for me one week before buying another 1,000 UK shares! ;o-)

Let us hope the court case commences before they go bust

Hogg of Chi-Med $HCM: "China ultimately will be the biggest pharma market in the world. 4x the population of the US. A market that needs to be "cracked." @AstraZeneca already the #2 pharma co. there with $3 billion in sales. #FTPharma

Interesting commentary on #FTPharma including comments from our Chief Executive Officer...... https://twitter.com/hashtag/FTPharma?src=hash

https://fintel.io/so/us/hcm