The Aim 100 2018: 10 to 13 May 2018 12:53
I notice we are in the Investors Chronicle AIM top 10 picks for 2018
4. Hutchison China MediTech
It has been 30 years since a Chinese company last launched a globally commercialised medicine, but Hutchison China Meditech (HCM) is on the cusp of changing that. Its novel cancer drug, Savolitinib, is in the closing stages of a final phase clinical trial which analysts think has a 75 per cent chance of success. If it gets the green light from regulators, Savolitinib will be used to treat kidney cancer, while further testing might give it the potential to be used in non-small cell lung cancer patients as well.
After 20 years of steady investment in research and development, clinical success has come thick and fast in the last 18 months. Aside from the Savolitinib trial, Chi-Med has seven final phase programmes ongoing in four different drugs which analysts think could generate peak annual sales of $7.6bn. The most advanced of these is colorectal cancer treatment, Fruquintinib, which could be launched in China later this year.
Arguably more important is the depth in the early- and mid-stage pipeline, which gives the group an excellent long-term outlook. There are five oncology medicines currently undergoing early-stage human trials, which should be launched between 2020 and 2023 and a further five in pre-clinical studies. Chi-Med is certainly not a one-trick pony looking to develop and divest novel drugs, but a fast-growing commercial biotech company with a long line of new medicines which should keep the top line growing for many years.
The group�s commercial arm in China is well established and will provide an excellent platform to sell medicines once they gain approval. It also generates cash to fund the drug development branch, while a recent $293m fundraise from the group�s Nasdaq investors has strengthened the balance sheet.
The innovation division also earns money for Chi-Med in the form of milestone payments, notably from big pharma groups Eli Lilly and AstraZeneca, which the group has partnered with to develop Fruquintinib and Savolitinib, respectively. The group will continue to receive one-off payments throughout the development stage and then royalties on the drugs� sales.
Profits may still be some way off (which makes valuing Chi-Med very difficult), but we think the plethora of potential drug launches should give plenty of firepower to the share price in the next few years. The Chinese healthcare market is also becoming increasingly attractive as doctors and pharma companies seek to match their western counterparts. Buy. MB
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