Member Info for daveycaferacer

Relates to a situation when potential order book trade price vs last executed order book trade price varies beyond a certain % threshold. I am nit sure what that threshold is for AIM but here is some extra info:- http://www.londonstockexchange.com/traders-and-brokers/rules-regulations/change-and-updates/stock-exchange-notices/2014/n1114.pdf

A time extension to the auction call period. It occurs if the auction match price breaches price tolerance limits. The extension allows further entry and deletion of orders. Allows Marketmakers extra tgime to change orders if the price movement is significant. Gives them a bit of extra time to tweak the book and their orders....

There's signigficant value at the current share price, Profitable, dividend paying Company with a clear strategy that executes it and has a clear growth path. Temporary global uplift in coal prices that is forecast to drop again going forward. The share price drop is overdone, as usual.

Actually the tarding update gives quite a lot of detail on their Coal buying strategy so all good. These people know exactly what they are doing and have executed their strategy flawlessly.

Increase in coal prices, although the Company has stated they expect the cost of coal to fall into 2019 I hope/assume they are using futures to get some certainty over their supply chain costs?? This is a great price now

Biotech market hotting up in the U.S - Gilead announced today thier intention to acquire Kite Pharma for $11bn, which has 3 x P2 and 1 x P3 and not a lot of sales. That shows how valuable the market has become for these late stage drugs. Meanwhile Kite is up 39% on the day..... Plenty of news due here meanshile ;o-)

Interesting EBITDA and DCF forecast here:- https://finbox.io/HCM/models/dcf-revenue-exit-5yr Rather intriguing for me because the rev forecasts tie in very closely with my own model:- FY18 $271m EBITDA -$31m FY19 $308m EBITDA -$17m FY20 $474m EBITDA +$71m FY21 $683m EBITDA +$154m FCF forecasted at $151m for FY21, now that is a prospect I am really looking forward to!

Hi Warwis, I also think our CEO's comments back in April about the fact the Co. is working on 2 or 3 things, any one of which could radically alter 2017 guidance...... I continue to buy, regularly

Lots of discussion Stateside about Gilead's patent dilemas and their enthusiasm to acquire U.S rights to some Immunotherapy and other drugs in late stage development. That could be an intersting opportunity, at a price.......

Lost and lots of news due soon, including.......... Savolitinib - AZ descision on strategy for Phase III registration and potential Breakthrough Therapy Fruquintinib - Phase III FRESCO study full data sub-group analysis in third-line CRC; Complete enrollment of Phase III FALUCA study in third-line NSCLC; Initiate China Phase III study in second-line gastric cancer patients; Initiate U.S. Phase I bridging study in Caucasian patients. Sulfatinib - Initiate China Phase III study in first-line EGFR-mutant NSCLC patients with brain metastasis; Initiate China Phase II study in glioblastoma (primary brain cancer). Sulfatinib - Initiate Phase II expansion study in NET patients in the U.S. Plus of course we have some potential things which could impact positively on FY17 guidance

I wonder how the SFO are getting on. I hope they are claiming their business mileage between Quindell Towers and the hotbed of dodgy dealings down the road at Quob PaRK

Agreed, will cost them more next year though

Wer have many updates due, one that intrigues me is Lilly and what they decided to do about Fruquintinib global rights. I assume they've decided to defer for a year..........

https://blogs.fda.gov/fdavoice/index.php/2017/08/china-joins-ich-in-pursuit-of-global-harmonization-of-drug-development-standards/ An interesting development - the China FDA has joined the global organisation (ICH) International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals, whose remit is to standardize drug development practices throughout the world. It sounds like that could be important in China's goal to become a world leader in the Biotech and Pharma space... Whilst it may not impact Chi-Med directly any moves by the regulatory authorities to become outward facing and more global in its attitude must surely be a good thing for the sector in the future.

For those who like statistics we are now back to being the second largest Company on AIM by market cap, behind ASOS, although I am sure we will be the largest at some point in the near future ;o-)

Thanks Matt, yes I get that, and there's some interesting info about that on Chi-Med's website. I have a 401K and an American Bank account/assets so want to have assets on both sides of the Atlantic

GBP/USD rate could have a major impact on my forecast too, if the markets think we have a great Brexit deal on trade for example, we could get back towards $1.40/£1 which would scupper it. Having said that, I am now purchasing ADR's as well as UK shares so covered either way to some extent

no Azurite, I reviewed but still maintain the same, after year end results mid 18 £52.82 mid 19 £68.32 mid 20 £70.99 mid 21 £106.83 mid 22 £128.86 So far my model (based on sector and competitor P/S, P/E and a few other metrics has proved more accurate than I had hoped......but just a bit of fun really Obviously a big licensing deal, Breakthrough Therapy designation for Savolitinib and other dynamics could radically change my predictions!

All time high on AIM just reached @4100p unfortunately ;o-)

agreed on the price creeping up and up but we've had a lot of dormant periods too:- 2006-2009 mid 2010 - mid 2012 the current price trend is playing havoc with my stake-building strategy however! IMO we were undervalued based on all the usual metrics such as P/S, P/E etc but I reckon our valuation is probably about right......for now. But when the $20-35m Nett income from one drug in one indication (Fruquintinib) kicks in next year I can see our valuation being at least 50% higher. I mean, $35m x a P/E of circa 70 (as per Genmab) equals $2450 mcap on its own......