Member Info for DASUT

I must admit that I wasn't expecting to hear any news prior to 7th January and for only a 2% shortfall in production why announce it? Depending on what they can sell at the higher GP spot which is an advantage over those mines who hedge this shortfall should be wiped out given higher sales price?
It is evident to me that it isn't currently a production issue it is a forecasting issue and Pardey is struggling with the reliability of his ore body mapping.
I fully appreciate it ain't easy given that it is impossible to drill every square centimetre of the property and that so many influences can affect vein thickness, ore body deflections, voids etc BUT I would far rather go back to a conservative forecast than an over ambitious forecast.
Seems to me that they know what ore can be mined given machine availability but they are suffering from grade knowledge and subsequently control.
Disappointing but if they can forecast 45 thousand ounces a month next year (achieve closer to 50 thousand ounces a month, they have the plant and process to achieve the production but need to get a better handle on their mapping) and also announce a new mine (better 2 new mines) opening then hopefully we will be back on track with a greatly improved and SP consistency.

I haven't posted for a while but looking forward to 4th quarter production results hope they are up to snuff and they have made some great sales at the GP highs and we all have a great start to the year.
Here's wishing you all a great Christmas and New Year.

Gold Mining Shares will always be influenced by GP but my view is also that like all shares price also influenced by the usual indicators relating to gearing, profits, costs etc.
Cey because they are currently a single resource miner are hit by even the smallest issue relating to their profits as we saw in May and this is multiplied by share holders who as I have said before don't understand that such issues are not uncommon.
Good thing for Cey is that their asset base is constant and they have massive opportunities with additional resources to increase production and unlike others who are inpatient for an early start up in West Africa I would seriously err on the side of caution in driving a new mine. Cey are in an excellent position with multiple resource opportunities BUT this also brings in complications, where is the plant sited, how many plants and what type are required? Do they mine themselves or contract out and the list goes on.
Something I learned early on with mines is that each mine will be covered by it's own rules and regulations relating to the Country laws of investment and this gets even more complicated when more than one country involved. Each mine is almost treated as a separate country and transferring resources such as equipment and parts from one mine to another is like exporting/importing from one country to another and we all know how complicated this can be with Brexit.
As I say slowly slowly if they want to be successful and minimise long term complications BUT all good problems to have.

Did anyone get in on the call this morning because would be interested in how Pardey defended himself because surely someone asked why he was still spouting 500,000 plus by year end at the Denver get together?
Also was Josef at the other end of the line because whilst he is talking about moving on I think we all need to hear what he has to say about the way forward?

Don't think the LHDR was too much of a problem as the underground production wasn't an issue during the 3rd qtr. The problem was the Open Pit transitional ore grade being very low and from what seems to have extended through not only July which would come as no surprise but also impacted on August production. In many mines this ore would almost be considered as marginal as to whether it is cost efficient to process so small pat on the back for achieving some gold production.
Unfortunately looks like rubbish numbers BUT I am now looking at hopefully some good news A. Underground production is performing well. B. Open Pit production is also performing well and grades and fresh sulphide ore looks promising. C. Introduction of solar could assist with the increases in oil prices over the future? (? because haven't yet seen any numbers relating to this). OK looks like a bad 2018 but 2019 looks though should get back on track to achieve in excess of 550,000 ounces.
I have said it before but transitional low grade ore is one of those painful experiences that all mines have to suffer and I hear that the geo's should be better able to predict the extent of the obstacle, strange thing is time and time again regardless of miner it comes back to bite you. Major problem again as I have also said before these issues hurt more as a single resource miner, role on some positive news from the West African properties.
So the past is the past and we can do nothing about it and as I am in for the long haul I will be topping up rather than what others appear to be doing is jumping ship, and from what I can see Cey will still be in profit with low gearing and what looks to me as strong long term assets.
Missed the 9 am call in so look forward to hearing from those of you who got in on the call.

Rebess, Newmont already know Africa well with properties in Ghana but don't think Centamin in particular Sukari would be uppermost on their wish list with profit share and the unresolved issues.
Could the prospect for other opportunities in Egypt tempt them using Centamin as a spring board doubt it given the possible government requirements relating to profit share?
Hope I am right because I would love to see Centamin come through the recent problems and develop a couple of other resources and get back to an SP that reflects the true value of the company and their resources.

Siko is there any chance of obtaining some figures for what was paid Jan/Feb/March so that we can look at some comparative figures. It comes as no surprise at all that July numbers are following the low May, June (2nd Qtr) as they can't just jump from transitional ore to higher grade ore there will always be a carry over. August could also be boosted by low grade ore sitting on the leach pad which inevitably takes time to work through but is low cost recovery even though low grade ore. The latter is however pure supposition but some early numbers when production was on track could help us compare like with like.

Rebess type into your search engine Caterpillar remote control Machines and hopefully you will see a heading Cat/Command/Mining Automation/Remote Control Mining and on this site you will see many different machines where remote control is of importance, and gives you an overview of how it works. Not advertising Cat but these are the guys I know best.

Tibbs Thanks suggest like me the guys at Centamin will take some time getting their brain around how this works and doing some due diligence if indeed they are interested in the "K" word.

Tibbs I don't understand you are talking hundreds of tons and Centamin are selling kilos of gold. Are you talking about unprocessed ore if so not sure how this is priced, shipped, cleared through customs, converted to bullion?

ton-fra-cen If there is no preventative maintenance programme in place then it is more than a rollicking that is required.
Unfortunately regular servicing/maintenance whilst an essential discipline and will considerably reduce the risk of machine failure it unfortunately isn't 100% guaranteed.
Unfortunately I don't know the details of the failure so can't say why it failed but if you say it was lack of maintenance then there are no excuses.

ton-fra-cen, Tibbs I am not condoning an error of a machine breakdown and the lack of cover I am stating a fact things such as machines breaking down happen and that hindsight is a wonderful thing.
On a mine site there are many pieces of equipment that are crucial to maintaining production not least a LHDR, such other items are the CILC plant, Crushers, Power Generation, Shovels and the list goes on.
Take a shovel truck combination one shovel will service a number of trucks and if the shovel fails then several trucks can't be serviced.
So what I am saying is that having a standby LHDR might be a necessary decision but where does it stop how many extra standby units do the mine sign off on?
I have honestly seen a mine go bankrupt because they had too much cash tied up with parts and plant accumulated when business was going full bore but not applicable when gold price fell significantly, as I say it is a balancing act.
As for a machine failing without any prior knowledge then I can assure you yes mechanical machines do fail without prior knowledge and it will happen on night shift on a bank holiday and be a part that has never failed before, too big to put on a plane.
As for contractors having spare machines sitting around doing nothing I am sorry if you are running plant that isn't working then your business isn't going to survive too long and where would it be stocked.
Agreed agreed agreed that someone needs a good rollicking but mistakes in business happen and it is of paramount importance that the company learn from the mistakes and drive forward.
Let us hope that management have learned and will drive forward with similar tonnage and better grades.
Tibbs fascinated by your advice to the company that they sell their gold at a better price, is forward selling involved, if so doubt they will be interested?

Sotolo I agree rise in AISC is a major worry but this will always be an issue when fixed costs are high and there is a blip in production. Emphasised when you need to move the same or more tonnage for less returns due to lower grades.
Tibbs I understand that you are frustrated as am I but I didn't say only people who understand mining should invest I said it is obvious that we have too many investors who don't understand the ups and downs of mining.
It is I agree disappointing that the Long Hole Drill Rig failed at the wrong time and maybe they didn't have the right parts on site. Unfortunately it is impossible to hold all parts, believe me when I say been there and suffered from mechanical downtime and we were supposed to be the experts. Standby machines boy would I have loved that attitude when trying to flog machines, doubling sales is a dream. It really is a balancing act as to how much extra costs that you can carry in parts and standby equipment as these have a direct impact on cost of production.
I am sure the Rock Doctors (Geo's)were aware of the transitional ore but were the Mining Engineers aware that the grades underground would drop off at the same time and the LHDR would fail also at the same time? No slap on the back but not sure what the answer is as they can't stop mining they have to push through the issues and advise shareholders that there is going to be a shortfall. Credit where credit is due they pushed through it and gave us black numbers.

Following a profit warning when the SP started taking hits and to my mind far lower than should be. It is obvious that we have far too many investors who know little about the ups and downs of mining.
The main reason why the impact of transitional ore, cut backs, grade dilution mechanical down time etc, are such an impact on Centamin is that it has only one operational resource.
To my mind this is a small blip and it really really is a small blip (No negatives other than percentages still very much in the black and no red numbers).
I can't explain how difficult it is when mining open pit it isn't a block of gold it is a spec of gold in a tonne of material it isn't visible to the naked eye and takes considerable skill to mine ore against waste.
The company has to be applauded that even with a reduction in grades they still turned a good profit, a profit that many companies would be proud of and can only guess that stock piles of ROM material helped, and this is very clever management.
I hear things like silence is deafening and can say yes it is frustrating BUT it is crucial that reporting of discoveries from exploration are accurate and are also independently confirmed as it would be easy to manipulate the share price and manipulation quite rightly isn't allowed.
The results from Sukari underground look amazing and Cleopatra also very good.
Not sure how the company will develop the resources in West Africa as the discoveries are over a vast area with country borders BUT certainly another positive. I don't think however that we are likely to see any production for quite a while yet but this isn't a negative far from it as it means there is additional resource in the ground.
I can't remember what the total resource was in 2008 when the mine opened and what the resource was when the SP was at it's highest but suggest today the resource is similar or higher so not bad for a company that I see so many people commenting on bad management and lost confidence.

ton-fra-cen I am not sure I understand your numbers and have learned through experience dealing with numerous mines over the years that historical numbers don't mean much, nor do trends.
What I looked at from recent production report was the ability of the mine to move increased tons and then look at a what if only scenario and the grades were as they were this time last year.
So taking the word of the board and grades will improve as they move through the transition ore the scope of increased tonnage to me looks good for the future.
We also need to understand shipments are based on "Miners Bricks" not refined gold bullion so production is extremely important and to be honest these figures are what I look at as this is how the mine is performing.
How the share price performs however is based more on the financials which is less how the mine is performing and more how the gold price is performing.
Long Hole Drill Rig impact of downtime I feel is likely to be a one off major impact and very unfortunate it happened when it did.
Sorry I haven't been around for a while but have had some family commitments.

I remain optimistic and let us not forget the life of is mine is still currently 20 years and I believe the 20 years will get longer as new ore bodies are discovered. So what has changed OK there has been a blip in production BUT no reduction of assets just a delay in taking the assets to market. Agreed short term increase in costs but believe these will smooth as the short haul oxide ores leach, ore grades and production improves with better plant availability.

Tibbs excellent report and great that Centamin are communicating and at the same time baring their sole which fills me with confidence. I am a little disappointed that two experienced teams Cey and Barminco didn't have a fall back rig but benefit of the doubt if they already have a back up rig on it's way as they aren't the sort of tool you buy off the shelf, maybe there was a bit of bad luck with timing. Transitional ore grades always variable and at least they did get some gold albeit low grade, better than good news that they are going to get a 5 year run of higher grades. I feel happy that my decision to invest more as the SP dropped based on the " fickle traders" was a good call.

Not good news BUT short hauling oxide ore to leach pad, increased open pit tonnage movement all looks good once they get through the cut through the transition zone into higher grades. Too many fickle traders with little or no knowledge of mining which is a pity, as an investor I will look to buy at the reduced price as Centamin management have made it clear that 2nd and 3rd Qtr's will see better production so hopefully the fickle traders will be back in.

The author of the article is no "Fool" he is one of us a Cey investor. Good man!!

s&f I certainly agree with Tibbs that the SP is under valued but not sure cc and fuel dispute is the cause more I think the single country risk. However a successful finding on behalf of Cey in one or both cases would certainly be a bonus. With all of the political upheaval in Egypt over recent years I am sure management have been somewhat confused as to who "high up" is the right person or indeed people to tackle on the cc. Also Cey are somewhat on their own currently as far as the mining sector is concerned and as an Offshore registered company I am sure it is difficult to mess about in the Egyptian political and legal arenas. Hopefully as the situation gradually becomes less politically confusing we will see some commonsense prevail as if Egypt does want to develop it's mining potential and attract investment into all sectors they need to make the investment climate far more favourable. Sorting out the irrational court cases is one area that needs to be addressed sooner rather than later BUT as I understand it Cey are not the only company having difficulties with the Egyptian Judiciary.