Member Info for DASUT

gnome yes I agree that BHP and Rio Tinto have similar size main boards but they are both long established companies and they also have area boards/in country senior managers that take decisions and have authority levels on a par with many main boards of smaller companies.
Same goes for Newmont, Anglo American, Barrick, Goldfields whose head offices I have visited on many occasions, I once met with Chairman of one of the majors whose name I won't disclose and asked him a question regarding the development and operational strategies of one of their new mines in Africa. Answer was you need to speak to so and so as I am just the group Chairman.
The so and so was another Director but of another board that in turn reported to the main board.
So yes agreed far more complex than Centamin even dealing in different minerals but they also have far more complex structures.
Don't get me wrong I agree that there needs to be some wrongs put right at Centamin and they have admitted this in their reports/presentations. Suggest Andrew is looking over his shoulder because at the end of the day it is the operational guys that will make or break the company.
Burkina is a mystery but I haven't heard of any threats from the Ministry of Mines relating to losing concessions unless they get their finger out.
Employing an African from outside of BF not sure this is an issue because the number of BF nationals to compete for such a job would be very small and they would likely be employed elsewhere by other more established companies.
Also would need to be French speaking and this also limits the pool of people so Guinean over say a Canadian would be a good move. No this isn't a seriously bad move but would hope that Centamin will be looking at a succession plan and this I am sure will have been sold to the authorities to enable work permits etc.
All I can think is that they can fast track the Ivory Coast assets quicker than the BF resources which from what I hear is a far more complex process maybe similar to issues that some mines had to face in Ghana (who knows may need different process such as a bug plant) unfortunately like you I am frustrated by the lack of information.
Why none of these questions were asked at the phone in I have no idea maybe no news is good news let's see what the next couple of weeks bring. News that we do hear always seems to be less than good.

gnome Northern Star and Evolution both excellent Australian Mining Companies primarily operating in Australia agreed multi resources but again primarily in Australia where the infrastructure, depth and levels of skills are outstanding, currency Australian dollars and continuity of business and availability of management with experience etc OK complex but nothing like operating in numerous countries, currencies, cultures, logistics, new industry dictates limited local work force so also dictates more senior executives hopefully running the ship.
The level of experience in both of these Australian companies aren't easy to recruit goodness James (Jim) Askew is a legend.
I worked all of my career in multiple developing countries and there is always the need for employing extra senior managers to cover travel time, leave, and complexities of operating in different countries. Example a company working in Tanzania such as Acacia has several mines in Tanzania but each one has different regulations relating to customs/duty free nomenclature dictating separate infrastructure procedures and reporting to authorities. Difficult to say transfer assets from one mine to another so they become individual businesses.
Centamin have a massive amount of work on the go at the moment to develop new resources/mines in different countries into their business it isn't just bringing in a mine it is about agreeing really important structures to keep the authorities onside.

dealts I thoroughly agree I used to enjoy reading this blog but I am somewhat disappointed with the repetitive historical negative stuff that keeps being brought up about Centamin.
9 directors is quite a few for a single resource mine albeit a number are non exec BUT if you want to develop into a multi resource mine then you need a wider range of directors with differing experiences (Not all Geo's are rock doctors), although would like to see more Mining Engineers as this makes for more interesting internal debates.
Yes I thoroughly agree that mistakes were made and the LHDR would not have gotten a mention if it had broken in isolation BUT as it happened at the same time as a serious drop in grades in the open pit the problem was multiplied. Not making excuses just stating a fact.
Only one entrance into a relatively new underground mine isn't anything unusual because to add another would cost a fortune and we would then be complaining about costs escalating. A second entrance will develop over time as ore bodies dictate, you don't drive a decline to extract only waste. Case in point the decline at Cleopatra is contributing gold albeit small so far but it will hopefully access higher grades.
This said I can't find mention to there only being one incline/decline.
I am as disappointed as anyone as I have been in since 2008 but not a lot of use complaining as it is my decision to invest and anyone coming to take a look at our thoughts at the moment ain't going to invest so not going to help the SP.
Let us at least wait to see what happens next week or so when we will get the results of the 1st quarter which I am hoping will be somewhat better than predicted or at least the high end of the prediction.

ton fully appreciate the numbers relating to 2018 BUT I was making reference to 1st Qtr 2019 and trying to make sense of why the target is so low when compared with 4th Qtr 2018.

bardill yes I agree that is why I say I don't understand why and OK they got the grades wrong and spacing too wide BUT grade control should be ongoing with drilling taking place even though they are producing.
Currently all guess work from my perspective as I don't understand where they are coming from, maybe blitzing the removal of waste to get into a more consistent ore body?
I become even more confused when I look at the open pit photo with most recent presentations with trucks standing waiting to be loaded, hopefully this a shift change because if it isn't then as I say I am confused.

Tibbs sorry for my tardy response been a bit busy doing not a lot. Low grade stockpiles to push the feed grade up as I say don't understand this comment because it has been mined and stockpiles are what mines do to blend the ore when feeding the plant. So they will continue to stockpile ore that is a lower grade as if they feed the plant low grade ore it is dilution and the higher the grade the less dilution and provides for a more economic/profitable process.
Very low grade ore they will dump on to the leach pads which looks like a landfill site when it starts it's life and they spray with a diluted cyanide solution that leaches out the gold from the ore and works it's way into a pregnant pond, rather than working through the expensive plant process.
This is layman's language for those who I know can provide a far more technical explanation, hopefully keeping it simple.

bardill My reading albeit I don't necessarily fully understand, the reason for the lower first Qtr forecast is the high strip ratio compared with 4th Qtr 2018.
My assumption is the additional waste cutting into the grade 5 transition or overburden.
Unfortunately I didn't make the phone in and when I listened to the presentation and Q&A's later in the day, I was surprised that nobody asked the question.

Tibbs not sure I understand Kees Dekker's comments, maybe because nobody is paying him to be more succinct or maybe because his earlier report was somewhat off the mark, doubt he has read the 25th Feb report in great detail as an Analyst would have far more to say and a good number more questions.

Tibbs no worries I am not a prolific contributor but like to add thoughts every now and again.
I have considerable experience of mining companies having difficult issues in fact I don't know any mine that hasn't had significant issues at some time in the life of mine. As supported by Gnomes mention of the considerable write offs by mainly the majors and second tier mining companies.
We have to be thankful that Centamin's issues have been relatively minor, they still have great reserves and make a profit each year, no debts, money in the bank, but issues are badly communicated and because they are a single resource mine then every issue is exaggerated and so is the reaction of the market.
As I have mentioned previously Centamin Sukari currently rely on the open pit volumes to provide the majority of their ounces and they are mining low grade ores and any dilution will involve very low grades, this is the way the ore body is and there is nothing that anyone can do about it.
They are mining the volumes in fact they are doing a good job moving the material, the problem is the gold dust and that really is what they are mining is unpredictable and they can't just up the volumes as they have a fixed number of machines and hours that they can work.
OK I agree they need to get a better handle on their grade control for reporting purposes as it isn't as if they didn't know that there would be inconsistencies as they transition between the many stages as this was covered in earlier reports, and this is why I like conservative targets or realistic targets, rather than targets based on previous results.
Lets hope we see something better than predicted for the 1st quarter.

Gnome Excellent information so are we looking at POG being $1500 or as some are saying $1700? I think we need to see some optimism.
No doubt that future resources will come at a cost and maybe the Egyptian regulations relating to profit share will become more of a norm.
Thoroughly agree that Centamin are well placed with their resources both mining and under exploration.

OK Cleo Zone and yes this very much subject to development and it will providing results are good be another underground mine and hopefully there will also be open pit potential and is referred to as Cleopatra in their reports/presentations, development of the decline is behind schedule because they are rethinking their underground mining method following on from last years issues plus also concentrating their efforts on righting the ship on their existing mine. It is very much a near term opportunity as they also drive into the area known as Antoni and they have produced a small amount of gold from the exploration decline at Cleopatra.

Hopeingmore what mine diagrams are you looking at as not sure what Big Hill you are referring to?

From what I gleaned from Q&A on Monday Mark has left and Pardey wasn't overly worried stating that there are strong managers running the "turn it around" programmes. So not sure if Mark is the fall guy??

Are you two sure as I have been in since 2008 and don't remember it hitting £2. Best I remember was about £1.83/5.
Also Stormrider you took a punt back in 2004 as mine wasn't even a goer at that time and I was talking long and hard about flogging them equipment for exploration and opening up the mine. It took a while longer for them to get the funds in place to push through to the initial fleet of mining equipment and delivery took place before I got in in 2008 as soon as I heard that they had got their blasting license which wasn't guaranteed as they are in a Military zone.
It certainly has been an interesting journey and don't think it was greed rather optimism of the SP hitting £2.50. Will it ever get there I reckon it has a good chance to get close in my opinion with all of the additional resource opportunities yet to be tapped. Maybe rose tinted glasses.

Tibbs the more I think about it the more confused I become with the company reporting and communication; last year a profit warning regarding a 5% shortfall in qtr 4 which in fact was a very good 4th qtr recovery. Yet 1st qtr 2019 is way down when expectations are that we are through the issues albeit from what I understand from a mining perspective maybe an understandable reason but gets mentioned as part of a 2018 year end financial report, with little or no explanation.
No wonder the SP took a dive yesterday because if I am confused the players who go on figures alone will be well confused.
It isn't just the technical mining team that needs looking at but the media PR Marketing team need some very close scrutiny.
The above said and fingers crossed I am hoping for a steady productive 2019 without the roller coaster and drama.
I am not unhappy with the 2019 estimate because I think after the over optimistic predictions at the end of 2017 and early 2018 there is a need for calm and a righting of the ship "back to basics" approach.
Published external targets that can be met rather than targets that are on the limit, although no problem having higher internal targets for remuneration purposes.
Rebess I know all about creative accounting but after a 5% profit warning in December I don't think there would be a need to use January production. I just think they had a good run of grades and stockpiled material to give the final push a chance BUT couldn't be sustained without a major crack at the waste/transitional material in January to get to the main ore body. We won't however know much more as I suggest until June/July but lets be positive and hope end 1st Qtr a little better than their prediction.

Rebess not sure how they can use January production in December but could have used a considerable amount of stockpiled material.
However after listening to the Q&A's after the morning presentation it looks as though January was a less productive month because of a cut back to push though to the main ore body. Anyway as Pardew kept saying the results will tell the story so we now need to wait until June/July to see if the push through brings the result as don't see any rise in the SP after the 1st Qtr results are delivered.
Also still suffering hurt due to the dilution underground and this will be ongoing until they reach the high grade ores but again they say all actions are in place to minimise the lower grades while they cut through.
I ain't getting out at the current price so I will be holding on tight and try hard to keep the faith??
I was hoping to hear some more direct critical questions during the phone in but everyone was very polite.

Has anyone had any luck accessing the transcript of the conference call as I can't find it?

Rebess Do I trust what is being said maybe not as much as I used to and yes the following qtrs could be the same or worse BUT it does say grades will improve at depth, but doesn't say at what depth so do the technicians/geologists have a handle on the grades no I don't currently think they do.
When the mine was designed it was done on the basis of many hundreds/thousands of exploration drill holes and core samples that would be sent away and analysed assayed. The problem is that the gold isn't uniform in an open pit it is fine particles and as such it isn't a finite cast in bronze guarantee that there is same deposits of gold in the gaps between the drill holes and with low grade ore deposits it becomes even more difficult to guarantee.
Reading between the lines they are still experiencing low grade transitional ore as they go through 4 and 5 but as I say live in hope that what is being said is true and the grades will improve as they go deeper and hope they get there quickly.
Given that the presentation says they are going to improve on the 2018 annual production already knowing what the 1st Qtr is likely to be I interpret that there will be growth in 2019 so hopefully this is something we can all trust.
Time will tell and I do still think the market has over reacted but at the same time management need a good kick where the sun don't shine.

Rebess why should 140k-145k for Q1 be reasonable this assumes qtr on qtr increase in production unfortunately it isn't a production line it is primarily an open pit mine where a ton of material has an average of say as an example 1 gram of gold that can be extracted so if the average of 1 gram drops to 0.8 over a given period that is where the 20% reduction occurs and grade control is so so important BUT you can't see that 1 gram or 0.8 gram in a ton of ore, so it isn't easy.
OK not making excuses but investing in mining comes with these risks and there are many rewards I am sure to come when moving the same tons and the grade goes up to 1.2/5 so the pressures may not be immense as can be shown with last qtr 2018 when we saw a near 20% more than qtr3.
Also it proves that they are still having issues predicting the ore grades in the pit and will be interested listening to the Q&A to hear what they had to say for themselves.

Rebess they can't win last year reports in the first quarter were naively over positive and then the blip happened and the SP collapsed, so what I am seeing is back to the old conservative ways of the company by someone who knows that it isn't going to be a full on growth chart as there are way too many things that can impact a mines results especially a single source mine.
Barrick and Newmont the big two I am sure have had similar issues if not bigger issues on individual mines but the impact is smaller as they have so many mines that what happens on one mine has very little effect to the bottom line.
OK the 1st Qtr production doesn't sound too brilliant but they are talking an increase over the year so let us see if that actually helps the SP over the course of 2019 with sensible targets that are achievable and bettered rather than feeling the need to issue profit warnings when they are going to fall short of targets as this does no good whatsoever.
I couldn't get in on the meeting this morning as had other demands on my time but will have a listen this afternoon and hope there have been some good questions and answers.