Member Info for DASUT

Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority

Rebess yes I agree forecasting is extremely important for internal financial planning and such forecasts have to be realistic and achievable. No business owner wants to hear promises from their senior managers because that is what they believe he/she wants to hear.
This is where we are with Centamin and we as any business owner wants is factual forecasts not what would appear to be guess work.

goldgnome yes I totally agree just trying to keep the post as straight forward as possible. Could also go into selective mining, waste to ROM, compacted leach pads that don't leach, ROM to waste, cyanide leaching into potable water supply. The list goes on and on without venturing into plant in an area that is later designated as part of the ore body.
As I say the list goes on and on as to why it is extremely difficult to predict annual production and to be quite honest I don't understand why the mines do it why not do what most businesses do and report profit and loss in money terms.
I don't see Heinz saying backed beans down but salad cream up at the end of every qtr etc OK maybe not a good example but trust you get my point.

Prof as I say I would love 560k to be achievable but problem is straight lining doesn't work because the gold ore is not consistent.
When I first got into mining I had difficulty getting my head around so many grams per tonne and when you see 0.75 g per tonne you can see how difficult it is to make predictions on production. Now multiply by 5 or 6 because of waste you can see again how much material needs to be moved to get to that 0.75 g.
Also my first visit to a mine and looking at excavators digging a face and loading a truck thinking it was waste material when in fact it was free dig (no need to blast) ore, it was as it looked no different to a road project I had visited earlier in the day where they were cutting through the bush to build a new road to access another mine.
The ore was actually close to 2 g per t and no way visible to the naked eye so respect to the geologists. Now to really confuse on exactly the same level as the ore being mined there was another excavator loading trucks with waste and geologists explaining to the pit boss where to dig.
OK since those days mapping has improved and machines/excavators/loaders have also improved with software systems incorporated so the machine operators can see when they are digging ore or waste. However input is crucial and needs updating regularly inline with drilling results.
So hopefully this helps explain how straight lining and making forecasts for production is difficult and we are seeing how difficult the ore body is to predict at Sukari.
Interestingly when I saw my first detailed presentation made by Sami it was at an Australia meets Africa Conference at an hotel in Perth Australia in 2000 and we were all impressed by the 3D software that was being used to explain the early days of the ore body, so they were using modern technology.
OK the above relates to open pit mining which differs from underground where once exposed the ore body maybe known as "seams" can be followed and more reliable forecasts but according to recent reports the open pit is primarily the source of ounces.

Tibbs sorry hit the post before commenting on your observations relating to Pardey. I have never met him and can't therefore comment too much but from listening to his presentations and answers to questions I didn't have a great deal of confidence in his CEO responsibilities to shareholders.
Josef is however a good judge of people and Pardey has worked with him for quite a time but there is such a thing as over promotion and maybe this is the case. Being a hands on guy and involved at the face maybe is where some mining engineers blossom. Making presentations and appearing in front of large groups isn't easy.
Josef isn't a miner BUT he is an excellent face of the company.
I also think it isn't helped by retirement of the likes of Trevor Schultz who I am sure was a steadying influence with so much experience and someone who I hold in high regard having met him when he was with Ashanti Goldfields.

Tibbs I would like to think that an increase in numbers of any production tools will provide an ability to increase production BUT it is all about efficiencies and fleet match as no good having loading tools if you don't have enough trucks and works the other way etc.
Again will be interesting to see the financials and the supporting production numbers and comments because they are still obviously having production issues.

Prof 560k oz next year would be fantastic but I just don't see it as to get anywhere near close to year end 490k oz for last qtr they will need to be into very close to a consistent 1.5 to 2 g/tonne in the open pit . Unless the underground gets back on track with good contribution.
Will understand far better when we see the numbers in detail especially grades in 3rd qtr.
I would be happy with a realistic 500k oz forecast for next year with some good news from West Africa.

Sotolo I have said many times too many shareholders with no understanding of mining or more particularly this mine. Knee jerk reactions but with such strange management decision making who can blame them.
I have seen the word "takeover " so many times BUT it will need one of the majors to make a move and I really think the profit share is the thing that puts them off, not the court case.
Such high profit share really doesn't fit with the majors. Now once they bring on the West African resources it will be a different thing all together.

Hi Rebess I don't have a clue why other than naivety (being kind stupidity a better word) .
Lets also play with an additional question, "Cowichan" has supplied considerable information regarding updates to Mining Laws, rules and regulations but so far I haven't seen much activity.
Court case still looms and as far as I can remember relates to the additional 16 plus square kilometres of their property.
So why not talk to whoever in the applicable ministry and say can we reapply for developing this disputed concession under the new terms so that they can move forward for the good of both country and company?

Tibbs
Right now my real personal opinion isn't printable.
I cannot believe how naive their marketing department (if they have one) is why why why mention the shortfall again prior to 23rd October when the wording of the financials could turn around a shortfall with improved selling price and an explanation as to taking a short term hit for a long term gain (if indeed there is one). To achieve year end ounces they need to have a fantastic 4th qtr with 70/80% more ounces than 3rd qtr. This is achievable with a fair old wind behind them. They will not only need excellent grades that have been promised for a while now but will also need to reduce the strip ratio with equipment pulling out ore over waste.
Unfortunately not enough information relating to why the shortfall so will need to wait for the financials later in the month.
Disappointed in management who keep thanking shareholders for their support but keep kicking us in the teeth.
I have said it before when will they ever learn that they are in the public domain and such a report isn't an internal memo?
Someone needs sacking there again maybe someone already has.

Tibbs I have read the DRC article and there is a mention to "this is Africa and it is easy to smuggle" this is so common not just to smuggle but to by pass the law.
Why is it easy it is because the police, border patrols often are low paid for their responsibilities so guess what it is easy to evade the regulations.
Not difficult to understand that something isn't right as even though the Ugandan's legalise the gold as it is deemed sourced from Uganda but to the best of my knowledge Uganda doesn't have a producing gold mine.
Right no but how is it sorted out, I have no idea.

Tibbs I thoroughly agree but the developing countries in the likes of Africa always seem to be at the back of the queue when it comes to what you suggest as ways of survival.
It would take me hours to explain the issues I will mention "access" to water to communications to health to education to power and the list goes on, grow their own food all well and good but if it doesn't rain there are no food banks. I met with really sensible helpful people who remind me of Siko who get among the people to find out what is needed. One old couple from Dorset retired farmer and his wife living in mud huts teaching how to grow food and best plants to survive drought. Is there a worldwide programme are there local programmes yes there are but is enough being done sorry no there isn't.
I was in Sierra Leone shortly after the civil war although the war was influenced from outside rather than within. We would all think charities are the way to go and we all contribute but ignorance of the real needs can do more harm than good.
One of the quick to get back on it's feet was the cloth making businesses, these are very small one or two person businesses. In come the do good charities donating clothes and I mean loads of clothes so what happens the small businesses are out of work.
As you rightly say I have experience and there are far more local people who have far more experience of what is needed but they don't or I should say didn't get asked, I say didn't as I am talking about past experiences.
Somewhat off subject but just a way of explaining that it isn't straight forward.

Tibbs a really difficult subject as quite often what is called artisan or illegal mining, is seen by locals as employment for local people and going back generations. When I first visited the likes of Tanzania I toured areas that were likely to develop mines. On my various trips I visited small villages and saw men, women and children manually digging very deep holes and getting up and down with hand built ladders. Extremely dangerous but this was pretty much the only way the village could survive and much of the gold was used to barter for water from another village that had a bore hole.
Over time mining companies interacted with the local villages many interactions went quite well with whole villages being relocated and some financial benefits. However whether this was/is good for communities is debatable as when mines close the local areas struggle.
What also happens for the duration of the mine is the influx of people from outside the area as finding local expertise/workers can be very difficult as the only mechanical piece of equipment they will have seen or worked on would have been a bike.
Always two sides to the story.
I remember chatting with a geologist who would disappear into the bush looking for mining opportunities and much of his knowledge would be his gathered by talking to villagers who had been digging for gold for many generations and he showed me trinkets that he had gathered in Ghana. Pieces of jewellery that would have been involved in trading with desert travellers with Middle East connections maybe more than a hundred years old, so local communities surviving for many generations from local gold albeit mined using very dangerous methods of extraction.
Do local communities benefit from the arrival of mining companies "yes and no" depending on duration of the mine and time and money allocated to education of in particular the younger generations to survive when the mine closes.

Rebess None of us have a crystal ball and if the 3rd Qtr is based on approx 0.75/8 grams per tonne and Hapi Zone has the potential of up to 2 grams per tonne then yes it is possible to make the year end ounces and they should have the equipment to produce the tonnes. However this will depend also how many pieces of equipment they can use to mine ore over and above waste.
So possible yes BUT guaranteed or probable would be an optimistic call.

Tibbs KD is right about many things but I don't really hold much store by any reports that are based on other reports and he lost credibility because his early predictions were somewhat premature.
What I like is to listen to people who walk the site and talk to people working on the project regarding questions that arise from site visits.
Guess my recent rants are borne out of the frustration of not getting the opportunity these days to visit sites and learn first hand the pros and cons for myself.
Personally I wouldn't be disappointed at closer to 500,000 ounces by year end as this gets back to earlier realistic predictions.

sorry no idea why I was stopped mid rant. should go on to say
So it is a double dip situation yet again. I am however not quite as pessimistic because surely the ounces drop can't be as great in percentage terms as the increase in GP, so maybe not making as much profit as could but still reckon financials should be OK?

Rebess I understand where you are coming from and I can't believe how ridiculous it is of so called senior managers to include a negative that will be repeated when they officially announce the 3rd quarter results so it is a double d

Cowichan Exactly Exactly Exactly!!! BUT they don't make emphasis of the good they open up with a negative statement and this sets off the panic because this is in fact the only thing that is understood by many shareholders. When will the naive management learn that they are actually in the public domain not talking to their like minded colleagues?

When will they ever learn all of these investors who invest in mining companies and don't have a clue, do me a favour what is the panic, over sold is an understatement.
I see mention of less ounces in 3rd qtr than 2nd qtr I don't read anything about making a loss in profits or loss of assets.
I do however read something from Centamin that is at the best naive with no idea of marketing and from what it would appear a deliberate effort to shoot themselves in the foot.
This presentation was made basically to an investment forum to promote the company and I have attended this gathering in previous years and it is great for networking.
Why they start with a negative I just don't get and the author of the presentation needs firing, OK tell the truth but word it as a positive not a negative.

I thoroughly agree with your sentiments Sotolo and now hope we don't see any further presentations relating to production and everything is held back until financials are presented because with a lower AISC and higher GP financials should look healthy.
Also need to realise ounces haven't been lost just not extracted so no reduction of assets as still in the ground.