Member Info for DASUT

UPshunt guess that is the difference between a share dealer and a miner and the manipulation of shares because the real value of the mine is it's assets and the resources that Centamin has already proven are closer to £1.9 billion at today's exchange rates, discount by 10% because of court case then £1.7 billion so will be very interesting to see where it goes.
Why would a merger with only 47% control be of interest?
Also my calculation is I have a share and END are offering me 0.08 and a bit of their shares for my share and this says they are offering me £1.17. so as far as I am concerned it isn't enough by a long way.

Upshunt you say an offer above market value but at £1.17 I don't see the offer is above market value in fact it falls well short. What surprises me is why Endeavour's SP is so high given the resources that they have in their portfolio and their debt, hedge liabilities and lack of dividends.

Ideally we want the forecast to remain sensible and each quarter forecast met or preferably bettered providing a buffer to work with as the year progresses.
Am I pleased that the 4th quarter was 51% up over 3rd qtr yes I am , am I confident that the improvement will be maintained not so much and will be interested to hear what Jeremy has to say on 30th?
Bear in mind however to achieve 510,000 ounces this year we are looking at 127,500 ounces a quarter and this should be achievable and to achieve 540,000 ounces then we are looking at 135,000 ounces per quarter and yes based on recent numbers this is achievable providing rather that it hasn't been an ore focused qtr to the detriment of maintaining structure for the long term (high grading selectivity).
Compared to last quarter I would hope close to top figures or certainly in between the above numbers would put us in a good position. Also I would seriously expect an announcement in the not too distant future of a mine plan in West Africa.
Yes I have ignored the END distraction.

Sotolo I would hope the AISC will be closer to half year $940 given what I hope will be an exceptional 4th quarter.

Sorry hit the post button a bit early as didn't touch on costs.
Quite obviously production costs will reduce given the scenario of more gold per truck and maybe less trucks moving waste that are not producing any revenue. Small caveat however, the deeper the pit, longer the haul so more fuel and truck wear and tear. Solar won't impact equipment fleet side of production but will assist processing, offices, workshops and other areas of the mine that rely on power from the generation of electricity.

Prof & Tibbs , Cey suffered from what was low grades and high waste so from memory we were talking of 0.75g grammes of gold per tonne of ore so each truck carrying say 120 metric tonnes equals 90 grammes of gold. If strip ratio waste to ore increases say to 6:1 then could mean 6 trucks moving waste and 1 moving ore and if strip ratio improves to 5:1 this not only reduces the number of trucks moving waste by 1 it frees up a truck to move ore.
If the grade improves from 0.75 grammes a tonne to 1 gramme per tonne then each truck is hauling 120 grammes , happy days if we are in the 2 grammes per tonne as hauling 240 grammes per truck so as you can see the percentage differences make the 490 achievable and some, especially if coupled with lower strip ratio.
Any miners out there this as you know is very simplistic and there are many other factors and it isn't so black and white and this is only one cycle within the total cycle as the processing of the ore adds other factors but in very broad terms this is what we are looking.

Bob No idea but I think Josef will be well connected from his previous life as a broker and the mining strengths and weaknesses will be well understood from the Cey team especially Jeremy Langford.

Bob I think we can all understand why Josef and the Cey board wanted to see the audited accounts and maybe why there was some reluctance from END as there does appear to be some creative accounting.

Bob management has very little to do with the ability to perform miracles in the pit, it is machine operators working the face, truck drivers, in pit foremen, haul road maintenance and the guys in the workshop maintaining the equipment. Problems are that cross fertilisation is difficult at this level with the need for visas, work permits etc. END also use Mining Contractors but not sure which project (s) have contractors so maybe not even Endeavour people working the miracles.

Bobliz35 I may need to take a look at the END web site because as far as I am aware they don't have any underground mines theirs are all open pit above ground mines.
Underground mines can have problems when there are heavy rains if they have open fissures but this isn't normally a problem. However they still have to move the ore from the deeps to the plant and this does mean the smaller underground trucks have to negotiate haul roads. However as I say don't think this is an issue as pretty sure that they don't have underground mines.
Worth pointing out the High Grading to Cey for due diligence exercise but pretty sure these are the issues that Cey will be very much aware of and they will also have Jeremy's experience to call upon.
No such thing as a one off in in mining if there is one thing guaranteed in mining it is that nothing is guaranteed.
Also West Africa weather is unpredictable and nothing unusual to have very heavy rains it is after all tropical.
As END say in the report the stock piles are lower grade and these would normally be blended with other ore as it is processed to minimise dilution.

Bobliz35 Not sure I understand "Mine Scheduling" to mitigate heavy rain fall which will often cause in pit flooding, horrendous haul roads especially working with laterite roads that will be like an ice rink when wet perhaps goldgnome knows what this means.
Guess might be that they work an area that is closer to the plant with minimal distance and level straight haul.
OK working the stock piles this is known as your rainy day resource, albeit often lower grade ore and therefore processing can be more expensive.
The pre - production gold is interesting as somewhat misleading wording, could be although doubtful gold bought from local artisan miners but more likely resulting from a heap leach prior to the CIL Plant arriving, which is common where the start up allows mining often with a contractor of well weathered oxide ore that can be easily leached with diluted cyanide.
However this is still production not "pre-production" so as I say wording is misleading however pretty sure this is how they would have acquired the 8,784 ounces.

Marmot I have said from day one the only thing EDV are interested in is the Cey bank balance and I don't see any benefits in a merger for the likes of us shareholders, however the large corporate investor may see things differently if they are heavy into both companies as will in the short term iron out the issues that EDV are facing. Long term however I see no major benefit even for the large corporate investor other than the economies of scale, but size isn't everything and would rather see an emphasis placed on quality of resource, skills and knowledge.
I know we all have our opinions on our board but what I will say in their defence even with the issues over the last couple of years they have always turned a profit and paid us a dividend. Yes I know many would love to know more about what is going on with the West African resources and are frustrated with the time it is taking to break ground with a new resource. I am not however one of those as I have experienced walking a plot of land including machine sales into my 5 year plan only to wait 10 years before seeing a mine plan but because the miner did such detailed work the machine order was far larger in many ways, equipment size, quantity and longevity.
Credit also needs to be given to the Cey pioneers given they were the first and currently only producing mine and starting a brand new industry in any market is extremely difficult and growing problems are inevitable.
Growing a new business model in Egypt and developing an infrastructure therefore deserves considerable value relating to goodwill and something EDV (Sawiris) must certainly recognise after the Cey bank balance
When opening the EDV mines in Burkina, Mali and Ivory Coast so much easier as the markets are already established, with local skills already available, contractors readily available infrastructures already in place Mining laws already established.
Sorry I am rambling but whilst I agree we have been fed some disappointing and misleading tripe from the board mainly forecasts I have confidence in the guys and girls working on the mine.

Marmot thanks for that but still none the wiser other than sounds like a noose that gets ever tighter .

Marmot do you know the actual details of the Endeavour hedge book as if they have 350,000 ounces hedged at say $1,500 then normally they have to provide the ounces on demand at $1500 and if the spot price is higher and Endeavour don't have the ounces they will need to buy at the higher spot price to pay off the hedge?
Hedge is often short term answer but long term a major risk.

Mick. Interesting "with production forecasts increasing to 510,000 to 540,000 ounces per year in 2020-2021" Where is this coming from as we don't yet know what has been achieved in 2019 and if they do achieve the 490,000 ounces what was the major contributor(s) to what will have been an outstanding 4th Qtr and is this sustainable?
Has there been an analysts site visit that we don't know about or have I missed something?

Tibbs not sure what it is all about and why would Capital need a Long Hole Drill Rig (underground machine) because as far as I am aware Barminco are the underground contractors and Capital work in the above ground Open Pit and directly for the Centamin mining team.
Barminco are part of the Ausdrill Group founded by a great guy called Ron Sayers who recently retired BUT he/they wouldn't need a company like Capital involved in any drill and blast needed underground. Google Ausdrill and it will explain their strengths and I will only ramble on as I now the Ausdrill group extremely well.
I have been on sites when a blast is taking place and safety is paramount and it isn't just the blast team involved it is senior management out in their wagons checking and double checking.
If there has been a c..k up and anything is possible then it will be reported and a lot of stuff hitting the fan because where there is a machine normally there is a person!
So not something that I would want to be talking or guessing about unless fully aware of the facts.

I don't understand as we have a LHDR that works underground and is under the control of Barminco and we have Capital Drilling responsible for drill and blast in the open pit.
If we really are talking such incompetence then the ramifications would be massive as both Capital and Barminco have a considerable number of projects with major gold mining companies, sorry doesn't stack up, sleep well Rebess.

Siko thanks for that, very interesting albeit mentions gold and silver so the amount of gold will be reduced BUT if they have achieved sales of 15 tons and still two days of production then they will be very close to the lower end production numbers as there is always a lag from production and sales. Hopefully looking good.

Rebess I am sorry I can't buy in to the deceit and story that you have unfolded as I don't think Josef is the type of person to write such a novel and let it unfold over such a period of time, there again as a logical person as I say I can't see any benefit to Centamin or private investors. Is there a benefit to Josef again I don't see it and I am sure his dad doesn't see it.

Does anyone know whether Centamin are allowed to make a statement relating to year end production given the talks of a merger? It isn't something that I have any experience in, which is frustrating.
I have said my bit to Centamin this morning because the extension came as a major shock as try as I might I can't find any plus for Centamin as a business and certainly no plus for those of us who are invested in Centamin.
OK if your a large corporate investor with a foot in both camps as it irons out some of the cracks/risks maybe in both organisations. I don't however see this as a long term plus as there really is a lack of cross fertilisation of skills. OK there might be some experience in West Africa on offer but there are many more organisations in West Africa that have as much or more experience that could be brought in at far less cost and add considerable value. Sorry I just don't get it!!!