RE: New acquisition19 Apr 2023 23:09
"So assume that GRC deals further down track will be via a placing at some point"
Didnt fully understand that, but any whiff of a placing is ideal for shorters. They can buy in the placing and close out.
That happened at Kape for example with JPM in October '22. I wouldn't read too much in to Octopus buying, as you said they need to average down. As to why the shorters might target this, I have written on several BB's, such as Begbies, and Argentex, the yields are so low (and non existent for Marlowe), that these stocks are just selling off any way. You can earn more in a savings account this year. I understand as serious LT investors you wont feel like that, but I think that is the reality, and certainly explains lack of liquidity. I have been focussing on buying high yields such as REITs, LGEN, O&G stocks etc (with my monthly pension contributions). Here your only upside is a takeover, which makes this speculative. I am still trying to buy these type of stocks too for the next cycle, but 9% yield off a REIT is too tempting currently. I expect as rates increase this will also put downward pressure on the stock price here. I guess I echo the hedge funds sentiment, that to make money now, you have to be short these stocks (im not short, but sold out), then the art of making serious long term money is buying them back near to the bottom for the next run. I dont see that being likely in the next 6 months. (this type of trading is not an option for Octopus). I do think Marlowe has a higher than average chance of being taken private, but it is still very speculative. Its a very fine act of trying to position ones self for income and growth now, but to not miss out on the absolute bargains that are frankly all around us currently. Not trying to be overly negative, just my interpretation of small caps currently.