Member Info for Dartron

Each Open Offer Unit comprises one new Ordinary Share in the Company and, for every two Ordinary Shares subscribed for, one Short-Term Warrant and one Long-Term Warrant.

Did some rounding, and was being generous. Retail will buy smaller chunks. But yeah, probably nearer 2M warrants. Doesn't really change the bottom line much either way.

So....
25000000 Shares
12500000 Short warrants
12500000 Long warrants
4008588 Open offer
circa 1000000 Warrants from open offer
==============
55008588
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55M shares added to 87M - Looks like 40% dilution.

Wonder where the price will go in the next couple of months now? Logic says 105p max.

This news was public on Tuesday, and has not affected the share price. It must be horrific for all involved (I believe some of the Armenians are conscripts).

Below is the crux of the issue: (Upshot for AAZ is that Azerbaijan wants to increase its military budget). The question for me, regarding AAZ is how much will Russia want to get involved (on the other side with the Armenians). At least they brokered a peace deal this time.

The single biggest issue is that Azerbaijan wants to have a corridor running through to its exclave Nakhichevan - and ultimately to its ally Turkey. This so-called Zangazur corridor would have to pass through Armenian territory, but Armenia will not accept having a road on its land under Azerbaijan's control.

Politically it is important for Azerbaijan's leader, Ilham Aliyev, who pledged earlier this year that he would "force" Armenia to concessions regarding the corridor.

Neither country appears committed to the peace deal and both are increasing their military budgets. However for the moment at least, diplomatic contacts between them have not broken down.

I wonder if they will do a dividend + special dividend.
I am thinking FY dividend of 1 cent, plus 1 cent special reflecting cash from sale of NGsoft / Ventilators / Covid.
That would equate to total of 1.5p per share @ 440M shares, distributing 6.6M cash. (yield of about 1.8% at current SP).
Expecting high teens net profit for the year, based on 20 -25M operating profit. Current balance sheet shows about 50M cash.
The big unknown at the moment is the Covid side of the business, we just dont know if this ramping up or tailing off. The recent RNS have told us plenty about the Cyber and Network business, but if the Covid test revenue is really high (much greater than the first half of 50M revenue) then we could see another cent on the dividend. I guess they might be reluctant to set a precedent of a high div, hence the use of the special.
Maybe I am being too conservative? (hard to deduce margins as these are shifting rapidly, both in Covid test and NFV)

All in all, I think 85p is a fair price currently, unless the numbers above are significantly beaten. I would say next 10 months to accumulate, and hopefully I can build a a position that is yielding more like 10% dividend with my buy in at 85p as the NFV revenues increase. Think this is a low risk stock, with good prospects over the next few years. To move the SP, we need to see 2022 and 2023 revenues increase significantly.

Anyone else have any predictions.

Good post Charlie. I also think the RNS was correct or it would have been re-issued.

If you are a buyer, it has only just dropped below £1. Lets see how IES performs for the rest of the week (and possibly next). Looking at the chart, £1.00 has been the support several times throughout 2021. Only recently when the operational update hinted at a cash raise, did we break this. 86p being the support, and consequently the next target IMO. If the current £1.00 gets significantly broken, It might be brief, but I think we will drop fast and hit the mid 80's again. Id happily buy back in the 80's given the chance. I think the recent rise was due to COP26, and seen in many of these stocks. I could not understand IES getting above £1.10 at all! As nothing really came from COP26, I feel that there just isn't enough appetite for the products offered by many of these stocks. Contrast that with $100 oil price being predicted this year. We will probably all be sorry in the long run that we didn't cease the opportunities offered by some of these companies, but as you can see, we are still arguing over the global use of coal.

Thanks for sharing Carcosa61

I am surprised at the strength today, especially if Gerry might be selling?

I see there was a Q1 & Q2 this year. Are we now on quarterly updates? I think the 13 weeks period is to mid September, so should already have been published? Any opinions on how the company is progressing? Long wait to end of year results.

Hope your right Tony. Bought in a few weeks back, bit underwhelming so far.

From the RNS:

BATM is also pleased to note that the Group's ISS technology will be presented at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), currently taking place in Glasgow, by the President of an African nation.

https://sprott.com/media/4477/211027-scp-pgm-3q.pdf

"Today’s production of 9.3koz @ 4.8g/t is not only a healthy 48% improvement QoQ but identical to our
forecast..."

Took me a while to find these numbers.
August ounces poured from 'puregold-completes-mill-upgrade-achieves-1000tpd' (pub 7th Sept)
July ounces poured from 'Strong Start to Q3 and H2 Outlook' (pub 16th Aug)

The suggestion from chipperfrd, could be plausible. Frankly, about the only positive scenario I can forsee. Yes, that means September was a bad month, but 3725 Oz better than 0. I dont know how disruptive installing all of the new equipment might of been, though the RNS from August says some of it was already installed.

If they are not counting July for Q3, then they really will struggle to meet their H2 guidance of 27k Oz.

Other board, says Sprott has a new note out (where he glosses over September Lol). Anyone got it?

Yes it has been a sh*tshow, but its must all be in the price from here, and hoping things improve from here.

Read the RNS again, and dont see any reason to be selling at 10% down from yesterday. Nothing shocking in the RNS, I think we all knew they were having trouble. We now have a new experienced operations manager, more equipment installed (during the quarter), better grades to look forward to, 2 ramps in operation, increased tonnage - even without the permit as it is annually. Also still loads of cash, from placing.

Bought more. Would like to buy even more. 6 month timescale, think this will have improved significantly.

Also even slight hints in the RNS, regarding Maryse taking...'Mine in Nova Scotia from construction to commissioning, ramp-up and full production, through to its eventual acquisition by St. Barbara for $722M' Why would Darrin mention that??!!

Interesting to read about Maryse, and her experience. Lets hope she cracks the whip hard, since her buy in was at $1.52 (£1.10).
Update seems ok, and still promising a resource estimate in Q4 this year. I think this will be a lot higher in 6 months time.

I was happy to add at 87.6, though would add some more if we see 86p or less. However, I dont think that extra penny is worth waiting for, given the potential here.

Yes, and happy if the opportunity to accumulate stays around a little longer.

Dont want to eat my hat at 80p ;)

Bung a grand in, whats the worst that happen :)

That's fine CHEATED but you will be buying in at around £1.50. That's probably the point, I would sell out, having made a £1.00 gain per share. Risk vs Reward.