Member Info for Dartron

All 12 of the oil stocks on my watchlist are red today.

I totally get both of your posts, as PE of 120 does sound crazy. We need to wait for the Q4 results in early Feb, to hear about the guidance for next year, this might help improve the PE. We currently have the majority of analyst's predicting a share price increase, so again it will be interesting to see if these get revised soon, if as you say Block starts to appear over priced.

I think that the current PE is based on the April 2021 results, so these are quite out of date now. Looking on Yahoo, at some ballpark estimates, the consensus is for 30% growth in EPS next year, this must partly explain the current high valuation.
I guess the question with Block, is not so much what it is worth today, but whether you think it will be worth more in the future.

From a technical point of view, the Nasdaq, is at 200MA support, so lets see which way it goes.
Look at Ira Epsteins daily take on US charts. He sites that the last few times the S&P dopped, it rebounded strongly.
(Skip to 3 minutes in).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHbCCYstA60&ab_channel=IraEpstein

Looking at 'trading view' for Block, there are a few people suggesting long positions now.
Block may touch $100 before it rebounds - strongly to new ATH's.

I have a few grand here, with an average in the mid 50's so not overly worried either way, but do think that this investment shows promise (barring a market crash), not forgetting we are still in profit today above the current share price if TSL was would up next week. I also think that TSL would have considered this deal carefully and if they thought Block was over priced, why would they take the deal, with payment in SQ. shares.

Im going to sit tight until at least March, for all the above to play out.

They do come across as a bit desperate, for example in their use of invoice factoring.

I had another quick look regarding your comment, they claim the margin is 24%, yet that doesn't account for distribution costs at 6M, and then administration at 14M. Once you remove those 2 costs, you are left with negative already, that is before the finace costs etc.

"distribution pressures, notably the availability of HGV drivers, and the increased scale of the operational cost base following the acquisitions"

The administration costs have jumped from 10M to 14M, and there is no real explanation about this in the report as far as I can see. This feels a bit like, there may be issues with the companies they have purchased?

I bet who ever sold them those companies might be glad to be rid of them.

I think the price would need to be lower for me to buy here.

First of all, I think this such a great example of how inflation will impact us all. The story told across the whole supply chain, of why the product requires steep price increases. However, I cant get my head around the fact that the finished product is itself a commodity, and surely people will pay as much as they need to for toilet paper? I think this is how the RNS reads, in that the prices will increase when agreements are renewed.

However, these guys have taken on a lot of debt. The investments sound like sensible things to do, but it strikes me that they have over reached in doing so? (Also sounds like the Mill and the Div are on hold). Really shouldn't be seeing a loss per share on something so basic as toilet paper?

Not sure whether to take a punt here, logic says that they are needed and will survive, but results paint quite a dark picture, and the issues out of their control aren't going to improve any time soon.

"As a percentage of the overall selling price of paper, energy costs currently comprise as much as 50%"

I will be loathed to subsidise the good folks of Poundlands toilet roll via a placing!

Are there any more superior brains here that can share their take on the current proposition? Perhaps it is still too expensive to enter yet?

Choice extracts from the RNS:

"In Q2, the recovery of the cost increases incurred in Q1 progressed well across all retailers. Further increases of c.20% on tissue prices were forecast across the industry, with additional increases across all other raw materials including cartons, corrugated, plastic wrap, paper wrap and core board. Many of these cost increases were being driven by significant upward movements in energy cost, impacting all aspects of the supply chain. The total cost to the business of the first two tissue price increases was c.£40 million on an annualised basis. Significant recovery of these increased costs was achieved from retailers, with many price increases being agreed that would positively impact in Q3 and fully across Q4"

"As the Group entered Q3, accelerating energy costs were impacting the paper reel supply, which, over a short period of time (c.5 months) saw energy costs for some suppliers increase by up to 500%, as hedging positions came to a close. Several suppliers in different regions globally ceased trading. As a percentage of the overall selling price of paper, energy costs currently comprise as much as 50% (previously 10%).."

"The Group has continued to develop its mill plans but, in light of the current spike in energy costs and building material cost inflation, investment in a mill will form a part of the strategic review announced in the Trading Update on 12 January 2022."

Here here. People should be buying not selling. Its just a short from a small hedge fund. You are being gifted the opportunity to buy before results at 25% discount to 2 or 3 weeks ago. I Had to show restraint today, but will be adding tomorrow.

I would also say, that over the last 6 months, none of the usual posters (Power, Nutmeg, Mary) have offered any analyses of earnings, or commented on the fundamentals of the business. All of the posts have been about buying and selling only - 'trading'.
If you really had done sufficient analyses, you would be totally excited about this, rather than freaking out! Yet here you are, a gift to buy and instead you sell, and chicken out. I posted about the short before it started, not a single comment. If you guys had sold when it became obvious...I have already scraped 11p off my entire BATM price, and will be increasing my holding tomorrow beyond what it was previously.

This company has loads of cash, no chance of a raise. Listed on TLV, so no chance of disappearing. Actually an incredibly safe investment. Diversified with growth prospects, yet has steady customers like governments. In interviews the guys seem decent and good natured. Its not going to the moon next week, but as an investment with a 3 year view, it will return a handsome amount I think. Hence the coverage in Investors chronical, which over the time it has been covered has performed well (from 30p memory). If you are going to manage your own investments, you need to be diligent and not just use the mag as a tip service. Its not their fault a lot of their tips have been heavily shorted. Look at the History, Ennismore have shorted this about 5 times, its easy money for them (most of the time) - they lost big in 2019. I am also buying CWR and GGP both in similar situations. - I think all 3 offer great entry points right now, but DYOR.

A lesser known Warren buffet quote - “Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons” — Warren Buffett

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BG5KQW09/

This is being shorted. Yes it was over valued, but some of the comments below are a little OTT. I think it will run out of steam soon, might see a drop to the 6's but not for long IMO.

Should have said, this (below) was a hypothetical question from FLatcap, not wanting to panic anybody.
The recent RNS said they were committed to the LSE FTSE anyway.

Flatcap, There was a question about this regarding another Israeli stock, which had delisted from AIM, published in a recent investors chronical. In short - nothing to worry about. Just find a broker that can trade on TLV, although in the case of the other company, they had also given plenty of notice and appointed a company to manage the process.

Ben Gilad, general counsel and company secretary at Amiad Water Systems, says: “Amiad shares can be traded on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. Prior to the Aim delisting, we advised shareholders several times to transfer their shares to a bank or broker who is able to deal on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. As announced prior to the Aim delisting, the shares of shareholders who had not transferred them as aforementioned were deposited with a nominee, Reznik Paz Nevo Trusts, on their behalf. In a letter sent in October 2021

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/managing-your-money/2022/01/06/how-can-i-sell-my-shares-in-a-delisted-company/

Bought some back today, I don't want to miss out on these low prices. I'm guessing that the short will be wrapped up before the TU expected around 1st of Feb. I think BatM have quite a sense of humour and you never know if they release a TU next week to catch these shorters off-guard, especially if its a great update. Minor chance of a short squeeze? - worth being in just for that!

According to the short data they have made around £9.25M so far, I think the risk must start to increase as we head for update. Conversely, buying in today by my estimates is looking like a PE of 15 on $110 revenue. (reduced from PE of 20 to 25 at previous share prices).

https://shorteurope.com/history_company.php?selskapsnavn=BATM%20ADVANCED%20COMMUNICATIONS%20LTD&land=united_kingdom

Was hoping to get some around the 32p mark, but bought at 35p today. I wonder if any more director buys may crop up?

It's important to keep your eyes on the bigger picture. As of the time of this writing, Block trades for less than six times its trailing-12-month sales. For context, buy now, pay later competitor Affirm trades at 33 times sales, while Paypal trades at nine times sales.

Given the company's increasing revenue growth and vision to build a one-stop shop super-app, Block's ecosystem is quickly becoming more robust than its competitors. It may be fair to say that Block has fallen to a bottom and is a good buy at this valuation.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/18/is-block-stock-undervalued/

I think Marshall Wallace may be reloading today, ready for another shoot out later in the week. ;)

I think if you want more than the normal market size, you would need to get one of those platforms to buy directly (not on the order book). They will in affect participate on your behalf in the auction, and probably charge you a fee for doing so. You will then have the same issue selling them. * Something along those lines any way. * Poly NMS = 1000.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/normalmarketsize.asp

Hi Tony!

Good one!

I think this may go a little lower, so still waiting to buy back in.

You should have offered 120 for them... LOL. Good luck any way.

I was offered 6p on a dummy sell early afternoon. Seeing those prints from yesterday, they might have been light on stock today.

Bought back today, after losing 200 points on CWR back in Nov / Dec, buying at 1173. selling at 973.
If I carry the loss from last time, and include the little bit of extra money I added to buy a few more, then my holding is increased by 25% at a SP of £9.39. I am happy with that.

These are in my SIPP, and very much a stock I want to own for the long term. I hope I wont sell them for a good few years.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/thinksmart-limited--tsl-/rns/results-of-general-meeting/202201141137575108Y/

Approved!!

https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/square-announces-on-demand-delivery-through-square-online-for-canadas-food-beverage

Just one example of what else they are doing. Awesome entry point for investing in Block or TSL IMO.