Member Info for danl90

InTheStyle is looking to IPO

Week old news but I wonder what everyone thinks. Would you also buy this stock as a competitor to Boo?

https://www.retail-week.com/fashion/fashion-etailer-in-the-style-ponders-100m-ipo/7036292.article?authent=1

Yeah hospitality will spring back. A short bounce in shares and then it will normalise. Inflation will ramp up and the money will flood back to growth ie boo

What you’re describing is a short term adjustment

TCM and K

I can see you points for doom and gloom but I don’t think I agree.

Yeah lockdown was HUGE boost for boohoo and we did 40% growth on same period last year. The management team (those ones wasting their time creating a scalable platform that drives revenue synergy and market leading margins - idiots) have set expected growth for H2 at 20% and c.25 - 30% on full year basis. So we already have the market braces for the impact of a softer H2 vs H1.

Once again this board surprises me that no one ever talks about management expectations and where we think we are in relation to those

A good boost for boo next year will be inflation (which is expected to be huge given the tonne of stimulus round the world) so as inflation increases investors have to leave yield and invest in growth or they risk poorer returns on a “real” basis

So long as boo quotes solid figures in Jan FY21 will be rosey as investors seek growth over yield. This adjustment I think will offset potential credit concerns as inflation creates job

Just generally I think hospitality will spring back

If you mean FTSE 100 when you refer to blue chip (that's how i'd define it but I get some say it different) then the general pattern atm is that investors are "risk on" for what are now being called "value" stocks ie anything that was normal pre-covid.

It's a bit of a virtuous circle as funds don't want to be the one that "misses out" so even if they don't see the upside or want to move into value as the rally has been so strong you find they have to follow as you don't want to be the fund manager who missed the quarter. This mentality is largely why fund manager don't beat indexes as they are in some parts chasing a trend (not always of course) but time evens this out

Most funds will have strong profits on boo and also boo is a liquid stock (volumes are good and spread is low) so it will always be a favorite for funds to use to reposition. This is why you see the morgan stanley stake bob about.

Low value stocks with little liquidity are often undervalued but no fund will ever buy as they worry about being able to sell - these are "lobster pots"

Why did they provide comments that "Karen Millen, Coast, and MissPap, have been successfully integrated onto our platform?"

I thought the industry heads reckon we just sell anything via any route? It's annoying that management built this industry leading platform and then continue to leverage it for better revenue and margin! Makes my blood boil

@inferno - just in case you wondered I think boo is a buy!

Any news on this State side?

He's showed as much knowledge of why it's going to £2.60 as you have of showing why it's going to £4!

Just praying and guessing! Look at the pretty they flash green and red

Just thought you'd enjoy learning about the VALUE of it so here are a few articles I thought were fun. Drapers (ragtrades trade rag) even quotes how this so valuable - shame he doesn't read his own industry trends - "keep the boxes moving rag we've orders to hit"

https://www.workcast.com/register?cpak=4317990099351578

https://www.drapersonline.com/insight/analysis/this-time-its-personal-retails-customer-data-revolution

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewbusby/2019/03/04/new-pwc-survey-reveals-consumer-data-is-the-most-highly-valued/?sh=8f12c42640c3

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2020/01/16/data-is-the-reason-why-i-think-boohoo-shares-have-much-further-to-go/

https://www.retail-week.com/fashion/boohoo-aims-for-personalised-homepages-as-big-data-drive-continues/7012448.article?authent=1

@K mama - I do think you're wrong sorry. What we have seen is that recessions drive people to cheaper operators and boo is the cheapest and quickest. Additionally people shopping more selectively actually had a great upside of boo in that returns fell massively (which was you big issue below)

So more selective consumer shopping, combined with our wall of customer knowledge and data (not crap wholesale) and speed to market means if there is a £ to be spent it is likely to go to boo

This is good for us

@People great post but just thought i'd mention that Asos flatter their GM% as they drop distribution costs below the line. Boo include in the GM% so when you make this like for like Asos GM% is quite a bit poorer it's around 33%

Also I fully understand rag has a great inside view from inside the industry. There is often no better substitute for boots on the ground! The bit I am trying to draw is how boo creates value as after all what we are all here for is the share price to go up! and for that we need the value of the business to go up

Comments like "Dan so your clear on how much EXIT margin wholesale makes, just about every brand under the sun has wholesale, most wouldn't survive without " - is dinosaur thinking. Boo is trading at x32 time (more now given the rally) why would we ever want to be like the businesses trading at x8 - x12 and need it to "survive"? That would mean our £3.20 shares fall to £1

I agree rag understands shifting boxes but he's shown why he does that bit of his business. This game isn't about adding revenue for revenues sake otherwise we'd be gobbling up wholesalers left, right and center - how many have we acquired to date? None. Do management report our wholesale revenue as a KPI? No

For all - every business you own shares in you should know the KPIs or you don't know the fundamentals of value. This is literally why KPIs exist and businesses shout about them. They are what allows you to say "we are achieving our equity story so as investors you should pay up" - how many of you work in a business of scale or publically listed that doesn't track KPIs?

My other gripe is that rag won't share (using his industry insight) why the shares are undervalued. Yeah he sees some growth but at today's price you pay forward 32 years of profit so there's a lot of growth priced. He has stated many times the shares are undervalued but won't share with us all how he has come to that conclusion. For them to be undervalued he must know what he thinks the value is - so share with us. Why are you so shy on this?

Just to link this into the bit below about returns. Customer data atm is one of the most valuable assets in world (https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewbusby/2019/03/04/new-pwc-survey-reveals-consumer-data-is-the-most-highly-valued/?sh=8f12c42640c3) - the whole reason whole reason wholesale is a bad idea is that we then go blind on 50% of our business.
We don't know what the customer is buying or how much
We can't do our test and repeat model (which is what makes boo so great)
We can't then target those customers as they travel on their journey ie make sure they get workwear from KM etc

having this data and insight is priceless and giving 50% of it away is madness.

Fine I'm "going on" but this is the truth and it's the end game. It's what makes Amazon so valuable it knows your spending habits inside out. We are in the same game just fashion and I'd rather be looked at like Amazon than Ne

@wolf agree the growth does factor into our premium but it’s not the only factor as I showed a REIT with no growth has a higher p/e than a supermarket with no growth so there has to be more to it than just growth

Don’t worry rag and Dan1lat are priming their answers!

Why because I’m holding up a mirror that actually all you’re doing gambling?

Prove I’m a c*** and see if you can answer the question above

If not take your seat at the roulette table. I think you’ll try some cop out excuse like “I don’t need to justify” or “I don’t need to answer” I don’t think you’ve the spuds or nouse to be able to answer never mind say why boo should be worth more than current value.

But go on give it a go :)

@wolf and that alone? It’s true the PE ties to the growth factor but a reit which yields 4.5% so makes 5p (say shares are a £1) is a p/e of 20 but that is 0 growth yet a supermarket which is growing steady (say Morrison’s is c.x12 to x14) how is that? It’s appear growth isn’t the only factor

Rag will step in an answer!

Yeah you could be right of below a certain size compared to remaining group an RNS isn’t needed. They could do an RNS reach as you say to keep good news pumping

Because your entire 30 years in an industry boils down to valuation “was £4 so anything less is cheap”

You know how to move the boxes in the supply chain but how to generate and create value is not in your skill set. Keep to being a box shifter

@bang have you any insight? Keep wholesale or not?

Not at all I’m asking people to say their rational for why it will not just it will get to £4 because it was £4

Or it’s undervalued because it is less than £4

So go maybe you can share some reasoning?

Ha all that industry experience boils down to “I’m hoping for £4 just because it was £4 before”

Any other hot tips or should I just filter for stock which have fallen the most?