Member Info for danl90

https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/25/paack-pulls-in-a-225m-series-d-led-by-softbank-to-scale-its-e-commerce-delivery-platform/amp/

Invest in Paack which is essentially a green net zero version of DHL

Again Paack is just the last mile courier but doesn’t do much of the upstream stuff

So again who is the keystone that ties Paack back to the retailer? It’s Ingenuity and then Fir/ST can also be used to implement Autostore for them

The more and more you look at the SoftBank collab you see ingenuity is the keystone that ties them all together. This is another example

“Airlines complete building of terminal that was planned pre covid and took the two years of covid to build”

Yeah seems like that decision was hot off the press in terms of current trends!

You sometimes get a bit like Kallu. Throwing stuff hoping it sticks

This BA thing is the same as all the office lease and development companies. All saying “office will come back”

It’s in no managements teams interest to come out and say “investors take your money out as this industry isn’t going to be the same”

You’re in the job of office development you have to believe it’s coming back. Same with airlines. They have to believe it (and follow through on capex planned and signed off pre covid)

But how many meetings can be done by teams now? My friend at an IB is advising a U.K. business on buying a business in the states. Usually they’d go out. They are a month or so away from close and no one is going from the advisory group. It was never that way

Back on apparently

Hopefully the paper means they can take this off our hands!

Doesn’t need to have boohoo’s customer growth. You value each business separately. It’s not too trumps!

Asos has the better strategy and proposition. For what you say about U.K. Asos grew in the US and boohoo went backwards

The point RBC are saying is how bad will it get for boohoo over next 18-24 months until they have US distribution? Answer is very probably

Planes aren’t back in the sky along trades routes yet. Planes to Ibiza don’t help boohoo in US

It’s not being abusive. It’s a fact and explains the incorrect conclusion

It’s not that straight forward (and this is what the analyst was saying to JL and it was obvious he hadn’t a clue)

It depends on size of plane and also where the plane is going. Lots of flight to magaluf doesn’t help anyone really

There’s still no evidence that passenger planes are returning in any meaningful numbers along trade routes. As I say I think helps address the peak but it isn’t a solution or what will bring prices down

Well I think it’s the opposite tbh. They are clearly pivoting a current business into freight as they see gold there

Gold is there as the amount they can charge is so high. If Boeing knew that passenger planes were going up next week or soon (and it’s boeing so they will have amazing intel into flights and capacity)

All I’m saying here is stuff like this might stop the peaks rising but it’s not a full signal of things turning by any means

My point is that people are looking to service the demand of elevated air freight

It doesn’t have to be a specific example it’s more a case of people wanting to provide

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/01/25/airbus-to-rent-out-its-giant-beluga-aircraft-in-bet-on-air-cargo-boom.html

Hopefully a good sign

Having invested in commodities etc it’s always been the case that “too much supply so we spot making it” and then “there’s too little supply, the price balloons and then everyone digs it out”

Maybe with this we are seeing the start of a additional air capacity coming in

Hopefully this is a bridge to when tourist flying starts?

Too early to tell but interesting I thought! Could get a fair few boohoo dresses in those planes!

As Asos doesn’t have the issue which boohoo has. So if they are applying ones negative which is a strength in another common logic gives you this outcome

It’s very common to have a ceo of each division and a group ceo

Rag might know that but 8 people work at his business so it’s just misunderstanding

Kallu. I answer your points and then you just ignore them when you’ve been proven wrong. Then on the other you cut a piece out of context which now makes no sense

Why don’t we pick up the ingenuity thread. The penny was dropping for you as to how great it is!

He's independent in that it isn't his deal (I just explained this). It's like any PE firm you have an internal investment committee who assess the deals brought by the execution team and sign off. They all work for KKR/ Bain/ Bridgepoint etc it's just people who are independent from the deal

"I don't buy you argument that this is just business as usual in Softbank," - I never said this but Son is looking to build the future and if in his view ingenuity is a part of that then he will want to own it. Ingenuity is clearly a keystone as look at how many collaborations with portfolio businesses they have. No other softbank business does that

Governance

If you put the guy on who structured the deal he's always going to say "great deal"

The guy they put on is independent

"Normally the person who puts in the investment get's selected on the board of the investment not a third party like Dr Hanssen who is on the board of Autostore."

This isn't always true. Actually in the HUGE HUGE pe firms you have execution teams and portfolio so it's actually the more common structure

"Autostore is a proper Tech company mate." it is but it is the marriage between physical and tech that is ingenuity. Autostore gets a parcel from a bin 60 yards away. How do you get that to a customer in Singapore? Autostore can't do that

He still works for softbank and doing computer science at MIT would make you pretty decent at Tech!

The only article saying he is leaving says he is going to do his own fund

Also you've not mentioned the softbank dude who is on teh board who is also on the board of what other company?

They didn't

They have an option

But they did want to put the money in

£165m - £175m of Adjusted EBITDA this year. Cash exceptional is £60m so £110m on a full cash basis

Next year
- revenue growth
- greater weighting from Ingenuity (60% EBITDA margin)
- also margin refresh as whey prices fall (you look at historic trends they tend to fall fast after a steep rise)
- also any further ease of supply chains
- further investment in automation

So on a 12 - 24 month view margins should ease back to 8 - 10% and cash exceptionals fall (as relate to elevated freight and also the spin off and restructure)

What have central banks got to do with fulfilment centres? Also this point has nothing to do with your first

Are you just throwing stuff at the wall until something sticks?

He set up the scheme pre ipo with the blessing of investors. The scheme triggered due to external factors

Like I said I can pick my lottery numbers I can’t make them come up

He put in place the scheme. He didn’t buy shares to make the price go up to £8!

The £800m bonus was paid based on the share price going from 500p to 800p so a 60% increase and the creation of billions of value to shareholders

The price went to 800p due to external third parties buying shares. MM had nothing to do with it. Apparently he had three years to hit that target. That it happened in months is just people getting excited

I can’t help it if my lottery numbers come in one the first week vs someone playing years