Member Info for danl90

At the capital markets they said payback was in months mostly due to them spending so little on customer acquisition

Re softbank it isn't dilutive. If they pay $1.6bln for 20% of something when the whole lot is worth not much more that a fantastically accretive deal

@mando don't think i've made reference to the THG share prioce

@Ste i don't think molding has ever said he's met Son. If you think otherwise i'd love to hear or see the quote!

I said a few weeks back softbank is son’s train set

Yes they do DD and have finance guys crawling all over things. But at the end of the day it’s a close circle at the top and one opinion matters

This is why I flagged that if our guy goes it’s a risk! As it’s one less top table voice in sons ear. Every exec will be pushing their deal

Read the WeWork book billion dollar loser. Quotes from son are insane. We work were missing forecasts by 80% and sons was still like “I see the dazzle in the eyes so here’s $4billion”

Debenhams had a website built in weeks and plugged into an existing warehouse. The stock it sells is boohoo own brand or marketplace products which it doesn’t touch so it’s a terrible example

All boohoo had to do with Debs was build a website the back end system already existed

Want to try another example and then again where they can do this overseas over and over

Here’s a few quotes

Elemis first site in Germany was May-20 and then 15 more localised sites and delivery in 10 months. Elemis on their own said it was initially a 5 year plan

Again you miss out the whole end-to-end by just giving one company who does one bit as fast. But this is the point you get the whole thing, ready to go, anywhere in the world in 12 weeks

Salesforce does one bit. Where is the integration to the courier? Where is the integration to the PIM? Where is the integration to a physical warehouse? Actually where the hell did the Japan warehouse just show up from? Where is the customer service? Where is the website in Japanese? Where are the localised payment options? Where is the integration to the WMS?

How on earth does all that happen just by buying salesforce? And again you can get a consultant to help (so won’t be 12 weeks as you’ll spend a month just picking this!) and then how does that consultant help you get all 15 locations done in 10 months. So that less than 1 with ful localised offering and delivery

And what about afterwards? When you’ve got all these different providers who in earth do you call when something goes wrong?

This is the part where you tapped out last week

Well I want to sell when the price is high. Like 99% of investors. I’m not a pirate so don’t need to bury Primark stock certificates

You asked Zeus? The nomad? They are a referee of aim rules. They aren’t management or sector experts. Also that data reference is old it’s not modelling forward the impact of half the estate closing! So it’s daft, a bad data point and not a model which you claimed to do!

If returns aren’t going via store they will charge. Exactly. They already do and it has a huge increase to the price of the shoe. But again that cost (£2.50) atm just pays Hermes. What have you modelled for damage to stock? Extra returns staff? Cleaning of product? Also customer service?

Where have you modelled these additional FIXED costs

So they close stores one year and have to reopen next. Do management understand their own custoemrs? From what you’re saying they don’t know how this will go it’s just slash and see?

Autostore is one tiny part. And ingenuity was working and selling 10 year contracts way before Autostore. Autostore is actually atm only in THG beauty warehouse so not actually in the ingenuity network anyway!

So if all the other stuff is so easy why have you not explained why ingenuity can do all this for you anywhere in the world in 12 weeks yet everyone else is 12 months?

Can you give an example where anyone else can do that? If you’re a U.K. business and have U.K. integrators how do you open in Japan? You’d have to procure new consultants and do the whole thing again and then have to wed the two opposite systems together just to get basic MI

With ingenuity Japan is sorted in 12 weeks

Tell me anyone else who can do that

"This is called investment." - so dying before you have realised the gain? That's not investment that's wasted money!

"I either do my own modelling or read a report with models any sweeping claim that a certain company is worth this " - can you share your model for shoezone with added online costs and also the returns not going via stores. Also with the sensitivity of losing half the customers when half the stores close (as twice as big a store doesn't mean twice the catchment - so customer is lost of shops online)

"Ofcourse I see that but it's not too different from a system integrator" - which system integrator owns the warehouse? Also THG built and owns the tech. They own the marketing content and create it. They own the fraud detection. They can deply in 12 weeks vs c.12 months for system integrators. Which system itegrator has ever built their own billion pound business (never mind two). Which system itegrator can do retailer to last mile?

I look forward to examples

T4G so boohoo is miles ahead in the world of data as it uses salesforce? An off the shelf product?

There is no propritory tech in boohoo's data engine

They have never updated that they have invested in heads here (none of the IT spend in the last 4 years makes any mention of data projects - I listed them all out)

As I say even the basics like a data lake only happened this year

But "Oh tehy have sales force" a pet shop can get sales force

Look at other comparitors

THG - "As of 31 December 2019, THG had over 550 full-time technology and infrastructure employees and a further 450 THG Ingenuity employees, representing over 20 per cent. of THG's total headcount"

Asos - is c.200 or so

Moonpig - "The Group employed a team of 141 data scientists, analysts, product developers and software engineers as
at 31 October 2020, and operates a proprietary technology platform which has been recently upgraded over
the course of the years ended 30 April 2019 and 2020 to accelerate the optimization of the customer
experience"

and your "evidence" on boohoo is what they tried to hire one subcontractor in 2016!

Come on pull the other one. Where is the spend? It's never mentioned and it's not in intangibles. So why do all these other businesses spend all these millions and hire all these staff and boohoo nailed it just getting salesforce!

The CEO tells you in Sep-21 how they are now starting on this journey as they now have data 101 a data lake. from the Ceo's mouth

Boohoo has retained customers by being a great brand, good proposition, being on trend with test and repeat and apps. But the true data insights isn't there. As I say try it

Tell me where boohoo has a use of data. If we go on PLT the items shown are the same.

Sorry change PLT for boohoo if you like. Yeah an article says. Well i guess that's it. Someone on the internet wrote and article

Job done

That fully reconciles the missing £200m!

Prior to full ownership Boohoo (in it's annual reports told you where the IT and development spend was going for boohoo and PLT seperately)

Neither of them have ever mention spend on any of the items you're saying until very very recenttly. If they were spending it and it was material (against a very low capex figure or was an adjusting EBITDA item - as it's growth spend). Then it would be disclosed. It never has been

Therefore it's not being spent in any material way. Follow the money as they say

"Asos are busy fools. If they need another 100 analysts it's because what they have aren't working effectively because their data is crap"

Are you going to point to anything to say why asos's data is rubbish? Or what magical £30m one-off spend item it was that boohoo built (although we are told the £30m was spent not on any of this - materially)

So what magical max £10m system did boohoo build? Because that alone would be worth trillions given what amazon, asos and other tech businesses have to spend annually on data processing and insight. Also that boohoo didn't even have all the data and consistent before Sep-21. So it must be some magical £10m investment

They should be flogging that!

"When it comes to delivery of online orders, faster is always better; however, we’ve found that most of the year people are willing to wait up to five days for free shipping, assuming the package arrives in good condition with the correct items."

PFS! Yeah they are right on trend for boohoo's core market. Want a real world data point? Look at boohoo's US performance and the words of the CEO and CFO. I think tehy are better placed on that target audience. Given it is their day job and 100% focus!

"It's cloud based so doesn't need massive capex" - i quoted intangible spend! Which development is!

Boohoo have never spent materially on data insight. Or they would have to tell us
£30m of intangible spend in all their history. Asos doing £100m annually

Please tell us what this magic system is (which somehwo worked pre a data lake in Sep-21)

That article says nothing. It largely says that they have a lot to do

A few nice extracts for you
Boohoo FY20
"Technology
As we recently invested in a team focussed on expanding our in-house app development capabilities"

FY19
Most of the chat is about how they have spent on payment facilities and courier integration. PLT is spending cloud and hosting capability

FY18
Focus of key spend is all on re-platforming old websites and cloud

FY16
Replatform website and app build

Capex spend on intangible is c.£2.5m a year. In total it's £30m! That's absolutely nothing. They have never said anything about capex spend or exceptional IT build. As it's never been a material spend

Boohoo has to date spent £30m and has told investors theres no more big capex coming

Let's compare to Asos

As I say FY19 notes a decicated Ai and data science team. They have 100 more coming in Dublin

FY21 alone spent £90m! and have a similar amount set for medium term. £100m a year on tech/ data/ AI

FY18
"Significant investment in our data science and analytics platforms continued during the year. These platforms have owered the new recommendations algorithms and our conversational interface platform. The
conversational interface platform enables understanding of and response to customer voice or text commands for both product discovery and customer care queries.
Our initial exploration into the world of
‘Conversational Interfaces’ saw the launch of
Enki, a new, one-on-one way to interact with
ASOS that is designed to help customers find
products they love in a fast, intuitive and fun
way. Enki currently provides customers with
personalised recommendations; the next
phase will allow customers to use an assistive
search experience within Enki, for example to
help them find the perfect pair of jeans. The
investment in new data capabilities and
optimisation algorithms will continue in the
next year. "

£120m spent in FY18

As I said you can try this. Asos will show you and I completely different things. PLT won't it shows us the same. Asos tells you what size to get (based on you buying or if you typically oversize etc). PLT doesn't

Asos is localised for different markets. Again PLT isn't. It's just the same stock from a single stock pool

Asos spent 3 years building TGR. Boohoo have built no new systems. Look at boohoo Japan website. it's just an off teh shelf from peter jones

But please provide more evidence of how boohoo and the miserable £30m they have spent is more than asos. Even card factory came out the other week and said they will now be spending £30m annually on web offering and e-commerce build!

"I'm not talking about the UK only. Customer data is universal" - yes I agree and Boohoo only centralised this in Sep-21 (go listen to the half year update the CEO will tell you this himself!). Before this they weren't centralising data and using the analystics. Asos has for years. Listen to the asos CME days and previous updates. They have had staff of 100's in there and boohoo don't talk of any

What you're saying is what you'd like to think and you'd point to nothing to substantiate. Look at both sets of annual reports for 2019. Asos telling you about the data scientist, AI teams, how they are building systems to predict trends. Even the other week adding 100 more data scientists in Dublin

Boohoo only references to data are supplies and a GDPR risk about customer data. As I and the CEO will tell you. Boohoo didn't even have a data lake until Sep-21. You can't do anything basic in data at scale without this to start. That's obvious to non-IT people. So how have they been doing it years? Answer is they haven't

If you and I go on PLT we will see exactly the same products listed based on new in. On Asos it will show you what you will most likely like. Try it!

"The number of analysts a business has tends to be more to do with the amount of complexity in data extraction and journey management than the quality of the insight" Tends to but not in this case. As I say asos app knows what you like based on what you search. As I say how is boohoo's more efficent they have only just centralised the data! Never mind getting insights

It spots trends based on customer search (really good insight into the Bridgerton trend the other year they present)

"Boo, along with all other online retailers need to look at returns as part of their segmentation strategy" and why? For what reason? It was a one-off and a % model of returns is baked into the model why are you changing a market leading position?

"What I do suggest is that some people get far too hung up on next day delivery" yeah just like the millions of US shoppers who now have their lives back. Again it's the CEO telling you this is the issue. Asos grew in the US over the same period. Thanks to a great proposition. Delivery is a HUGE part of proposition and you're cutting it out

And then saying to customers "you'll pay for your return"

Wow are you short? I would thunk you are!

"I believe that US growth will resume. Because the rest of the proposition is strong enough." well the rest of what you thought was pants and the 14% decline says otherwise. Especially when you have a fantastic direct comparator. Although I think we have established taht dat and insight not your strong suit

Because it’s market is global and I think you’re referring to U.K. only? That’s the mindset that has the share price at this low low low level

It’s thinking and knowing it’s market is global that Asos is in a better boat atm. Tbh I made this very clear in my statement saying Asos is next day or two day to most of the world and key markets

It’s market is global. Not just the U.K.

Also re insight Asos is far a head. They have way more data analysts and are adding all the time. Boohoo only just built a data lake in Sep-21!

Think bigger T4G. Next you’ll be wanting to change the returns policy even though boohoo don’t have returns abusers! Or sale and leaseback a warehouse!

Also to compare to shopify you need to compare ingenuity commerce revenue only

They are very different. Both have strengths which is the others weakness

Asos is run by nerds who get all excited about how they can invest in the data, automation and efficiency of the platform to better drive customer experience. They are now building on brand awareness but selling third party brands hits margins so you have to be efficient (Nike don’t let you make 50% on their trainers)

They know what the industry is and they two days delivery to most of the world. If you need an outfit and don’t live next to the shops Asos is your port of call

Asos own brands are good but they aren’t growing like crazy which I’d like to see more of

Boohoo on the other hand is all own brand which is far better margin. They are also insanely strong brand especially PLT

The issue is for boohoo is that they have misunderstood the fast fashion market. They have been assuming that brand power alone will drive sales

Boohoo now needs international warehouses but these will be expensive and then all the capacity they have got in the Uk will be sort of spare?

Debenhams will be a bright spot but the brands on there are still weak. It’s not a John Lewis and let’s just be honest here. What is good is the Model is marketplace which means money for nothing and working cap free

Asos need a US CEO with a big ego to come in. Their market shift to main will cause a re-rate and hopefully they can start an M&A strategy

Asos can take infancy brands and grow them (by virtue of putting them on Asos) so they should then take a stake. Id love Asos to buy PLT in all honesty

Boohoo can then just rename as Debenhams and be a different business which I think would be a better valued business as it can re-set expectations and double focus on U.K.

Also a very big cheque for PLT would be nice

PLT with next day delivery globally? Asos would get their money back very quick

“ IMO you need to look at it on a per year basis. What was the growth last 4-5 years? What were the earnings and cashflows? What are they going to be in 3-5 years time”

This is literally how a DCF works! Ha

The shein ipo point was as a positive!

With expensive paper they can but boohoo and get us out of jail

This is confusing the wrong parts (rag doesn’t listen to the analyst calls remember)

The analyst is referring to outbound freight (which is the big issue for boohoo atm) and rag is talking about inbound freight

Best to learn the difference as they are impacting in very different ways

Sorry Wolf I didn’t realise we were all so touchy?

So Kallu you're ignoring all the other points you've been proven incorrect on?

On the analyst they aren't fired for being wrong. What you stated was they were being fraudulent ie stating a target so their trading desk would win work

You're mixing two different things because again you're just throwing stuff taht you don't really understand at the wall

“ I think I have said this before but buying an asset on speculation that someone else would buy an asset at a higher price is not investment.”

No this is how shares work. Surely you’ll want to sell your Primark shares for a profit? Or are you holding them as fun tokens? What rubbish this was!

RBC’s model is their own IP. They publish the output via their note. Same as you doing your research and then coming on here telling us somehow “twice as big shoe stores mean twice the catchment area” yet we’ve seen nothing to support that

Also that online was good for shoe yet it’s the same custoemrs returning to store so in effect you’re winning no new customer but just doubling up costs of stores and online

Where is the research to show us different? No where. You just drop a thread when you’ve been shown up. Same as when I told you the benefit of ingenuity and you were clearly seeing it!

RBC’s skin is the analysts careers. Research is seperate trading desk (usually a seperate floor and passes etc won’t allow research to go anywhere near trading). So if an analyst writes rubbish the answer is he lossss credibility and doesn’t work again as no one will buy the research

Not really a great motive for him

The issue is (and what I said to rag months ago when he said “seen this all before in India/ ****stan) that you can’t just go to China and have a nosey about to find these ESG worries

We all know they exist but actual evidence and getting China to act is impossible

Intel tried the other month. What happened? Reverse the policy in 48 hours

H&M tried it too. Also got blasted

Bidens bill on Xinjing lacks teeth

What happened in Leicester wasn’t great but no where near as bad as what happens in China. The issue is it happened over here in our back yard