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Good update and confirmation that the news reports around the MoU's are indeed true. This is exciting and could put OPG back on the map if projects go ahead.

In the meantime, Market Cap of £20m, Net Cash of £12.6m so Enterprise Value of £7m. An operational power plan with capacity of 414 MW at an Enterprise Value / MW multiple of 0.02. Absolutely insane.

The plant that OPG handed over to debt holders a few years ago because of huge operational issues in Gujarat and has been in care and maintenace since, has just been sold by the debt holders to Jindal Power for £50m. That's a 300MW plant so implies an Enterprise Value / MW of 0.17.

A new plant costs ~£0.8m per MW to build. Hoping the market eventually does the maths, but until then we wait.

Also, the CFO did not leave as scapegoat for the investigation, he has been poached by other companies. Since January 2024, he has been acting as CFO for OPG and another company called Transrail Lighting (Market Cap ~£600m). And just a couple of weeks ago he was appointed CFO of Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy (Market Cap ~£500m).

I don't know why he has remained as CFO of OPG despite taking on a much larger role at Transrail but as I said before, I think there's limited appetite from the Guptas to keep this listed in the UK for much longer so they didn't feel the need to replace Ajit in the past despite his role at Transrail. The situation now changes because Sterling and Wilson are also in the power market so there were probably conflicts on interest from having both the OPG role and the Sterling and Wilson role.

I agree. Don't think there's a long-term prospect for OPG listed in the UK. This will get bought out in the next 12 months.

Yes they are, great news! Surprised they don't need to disclose it per listing requirements in the UK. This is surely a material development for the group.

"Speaking at the Invest Madhya Pradesh, the state's eighth edition of investment summit [...]. OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd pledged Rs 13,400 crore investment in setting up a manufacturing facility for battery storage system, small modular reactors, green hydrogen and hybrid (solar and wind) power generation."

13,400 Crore is a casual £1.5bn. Obviously will be mostly debt financed and over a long period of time but at least there is a plan going forward. It also likely puts an end to the fraud discussions etc, otherwise they wouldn't be out there making pledges for investments with government entities and being reported by major newspapers alongside the likes of Adani (£20bn market cap), NTPC (£25bn market cap), Reliance (£170bn Market Cap) etc

Would be surprised if this doesn't get taken over imminently by the Gupta family. Feels like a no brainer at £20m market cap and with the size of the opportunity in India. Easy few steps and various options to make millions:

1) Takeover of UK entity. Can't see them risking a takeover at less than 10p, even at 10p is £40m.

2) List it in India where OPG would command a valuation of 5-7x greater than in the UK based on the comps. Pocket the difference

3) Can also sell the coal power plant and invest it all in renewables. That would raise enough equity to fund the £1.5bn investment programme.

"The government’s plan to unlock the potential of nuclear energy with an aim to develop at least 100 GW capacity by 2047 will provide the much-needed boost to the power sector. The move to allow States an additional borrowing of 0.5 per cent of GSDP will augment intra-State transmission capacity by States.

Avantika Gupta, CEO, OPG Power Ventures, said the establishment of five National Centres for Excellence in skilling, incentives for electricity distribution reforms and strategic amendments to the Atomic Energy Act will further enable a robust, self-reliant energy ecosystem. By incentivising States to drive reforms and expand intrastate transmission capacity will strengthen the power sector. The additional borrowing allowance for States committed to these reforms reflects the government’s dedication to long-term stability and sustainability. The measures will strengthen the financial health of power companies and pave the way for a resilient energy infrastructure that supports economic growth and industrial expansion across the country, she added"

EPS is higher than Q3 2024 but lower than Q4 2023

Precisely, they won't need to allocate much to get to the desired result (i.e. an increase in the share price).

Just assuming that some cash will be retained in the business + they might choose to allocate a portion to share buybacks rather than special dividend

Thanks. Are you sure about your £144.7m discounted cash-flow number in FY25 on page 12? If you discount the FCF of £210.8m for ~1 Year you get a much higher number than £144.7m unless there are other adjustments going through?

Well Crisil (S&P in India) continued to rate the OPG bond at A and had outlined it was going to be continue to be included in the index fund for A rated debt

****.crisil.com/content/dam/crisil/Indian-Consolidated-Factsheet/2024/CRISIL%20Indices%20Factsheet%2001%20Jan%202025.pdf

Looks like OPG has repaid their debt early per the BSE disclosure

From my calcs I'm expecting ~12p

Actually the £150m cash balance is at end of mine life so mid to late 2026 as opposed to end of 2025.

MTL's mine has about 1.5 Years left I believe and by end of next year, at current gold prices MTL will have ~£150m Cash. Some of it will be used as consideration for Condor, some of it will be used for developing the Abra License in Phillipines and then I'm pretty sure that the remaining will fund the Condor construction which should take 18 months. Hence, the timing from a cash-flow perspective all makes a lot of sense for MTL.

The price they are paying for Condor is where I think I need to do more analysis on...

You can request it to be added. But even if it does get added chances are they will cap how many shares you can hold of it. Just the way Trading212 works. A lot of the microcaps have a cap of £2-3k invested per stock.

Also it all seems a bit confusing to me. There are a few points that would have been good to be clarified:

1) The reports talk about OPG Group. The OPG Group in India, encompasses all the businesses of the Gupta's. This includes the stake in OPG Power Ventures PLC, but also other businesses in the food sector, manufacturing, real estate etc. Coincidentally, OPG Power Ventures PLC is also referenced as OPG Group in the UK but the two are distinct organizations. There is a website for the indian OPG Group if you search for it.

2) The fact that the report talks about seizing cash from the Directors properties (as well as OPG offices) means that the wrongdoing is potentially from the Directors, so not necessarily the company. Fines etc may be applied to the Directors rather than OPG or to both. So the Guptas could have their shares in OPG Power Ventures PLC seized for example.

3) The wrondoing appears to be that the Guptas received Foreign Direct Investment for the power sector but then misused the funds to invest in the stock market, land and real estate. This is not what OPG Power Ventures PLC invests in. This is wrongdoing by the Guptas not the company.

To me it looks like OPG Power Ventures PLC has been used as a vehicle for the Guptas to potentially carry out illegal activities. Questions need answering but if this is the case, it would seem unfair for other shareholders to be affected by this. If proven guilty, the Gupta shares in OPG should be seized and sold on.

Will this force the company to finally care about the share price? A depressed share price might accelerate the thinking on buybacks, dividends etc.

This only gets re-rated once the company addresses the longevity of its business. At the moment, the market is aware Runruno has 2ish more years of operations. There has been no indication that that can be extended. 2 years is still significant given the profitability of the mine, so just from that standalone operation Metals Exploration will earn ~£100m + in cash.

The abra tenement, anyone familiar with mining and exploration will know it will take multiple years to get that into production. They will need to drill a lot of meters over the next 12-24 months to identify a resource, then deem whether its economical, then put together a mine plan, then apply for mining permits, then look for funding to build the mine etc. Even if this yields good drilling results it won't get into production before 2030. So there will be a gap between 2027 and 2030. This is a significant gap and the company will fall again out of people's radars.

Having said that, the management team seems experienced and clued up, so I suspect they will look to do some M&A in the next 12 months, most likely either JV for a shovel ready project or simply takeover a smaller player with a shovel ready project in the Philippines.

I watched a documentary the other day called "The Dark Pond of Money; The Relentless Pursuit of Justice". This is smelling like CRTM to me. A dodgy institutional investor with a Management team that is in on the deal will steal this from other investors.

This is turning into a zero very quickly. I hope the likes of Ian Hannam (9% Shareholder with a £1.4m invested here), Mark Horrocks (4% Shareholder with £0.5m invested here) and Anthony Charles (3% Shareholder with £0.2m invested here) are on top of Fryer the fraud

It's worse than that. They are valuing it at £25m Equity Value. £100m includes the £75m in cash raised. Shocking.