Member Info for daniscp1906

Depends on people's risk appetite. There's various de-risking milestones from now to full operations which will impact the value.

Once operational, as long as there's no real issues, the typical production multiple for a single asset in a non-tier 1 jurisdiction is probably ~$4,000 per Oz of Gold produced. Production is forecast at 160,000 so once operational this should be worth $640m or £475m. KEFI will have 80-85% stake in the project so let's say £380m. This would be ~4p per share. This is also the value after paying down the debt so probably in Year 2 or 3 of operations. Without the debt paid down, the project would be worth $640m minus the debt of $250m = $400m or £300m (KEFI share £240m or 2.6p per share).

Prior to operations, there's the construction to deliver and scope for overruns. At shovel ready stage pre-construction, the value is probably half of the value before production so 1.3p per share. As construction is delivered the share price will trend towards the production levels over time.

So basically at current share price, the market is applying a 50% risk factor on the funding being there for the construction which seems excessive.

Starting to lose patience with these guys....wrong decision after wrong decision

11 July 2025 - Avanti Gold settles $1,250,000 they owe us in shares by a cash payment of $562,000.

Avanti Gold share price performance since 30 June? 800% up. Had we taken the payment in shares as we were suppose to, it would now be worth $9m. Instead we're left with $0.6m.

Don't think its trading at 24p because people don't expect the tender to go through at 25p. It's time value of money. So some people don't want to have the tied up capital for another couple of months. So they are foregoing the 4% uplift basically (25p - 24p). Surprised there's no M&A arbitrage funds out there just mopping up all these shares. 4% return for a couple of months is a great return for those funds.

NAV is £21 Per Share. £14 in Cash and £7 in Fund Investments.

Tender Offer coming for 20% of the Float. Expecting a tender offer at £16 per share.

I am tempted as well to be honest. Also tempted to go to the AGM where this is being discussed and be a pain

*of lower share price

Unlikely a bid comes in as the 3 main shareholders hold 70%. This is the company (and those 3 main shareholders) cornering people in essentially. They know not everyone likes to hold unlisted shares. Equally, they know in a takeover offer there might be more scrutiny on price and the Board typically needs to opine on fairness etc of the bid.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the sudden drop in share price over last month was brokers shorting the stocks to lower it on request of the 3 main shareholers. Had this happened one month ago when the return to capital was intended, the share price was more like 25p so any reasonable premium would take the tender offer to >30p. Like this, they got over 1-1.5 months of share price

Yes. Unless you want to hold on to the shares as the company goes private. Basically two options for us retailers:

1) Tender shares at 25p and get the proceeds over next month or so

2) Remain invested as the company delists and they will pay a special dividend with the proceeds left after the tender offer. Probably ~10p per share.

Nov 2024

"Having conducted a targeted but extensive process, Benchmark received a number of approaches from parties potentially interested in buying the Company and/or each of its individual business areas. Selected parties were invited to enter into a thorough due diligence process. Following a review of the proposals received, the Board resolved that the offer from Novo Holdings to acquire the Genetics Business represented the best option to unlock significant value for shareholders, and to best position the Company to realise the potential of the Continuing Business."

May 2025

"Having undertaken a comprehensive public formal sale process from 22 January 2024 to 25 November 2024, the Company disposed of its Genetics Business on 31 March 2025. The Company did not receive any final bids in relation to this public formal sale process and, as such, terminated the process in relation to the remaining business divisions of the Company and the residual Group as a whole. Accordingly, the Independent Directors believe that the De-Listings and Re-Registration are in the best interests of Shareholders as a whole."

Ridiculous outcome. Once again retail shareholders get done over and AIM won't do anything to protect us.

This is a takeover in disguise, the 3 major shareholders hold 70% and have said they are not tendering their shares. The tender offer covers the remaining shares. But being a tender offer there is less scrutiny on the premium vs if it was a takeover offer. Also, how can they be referencing the share price over last 60 days as basis for assessing the 25p as a premium? This is the lowest share price it has traded for years. Not to mention the lies, many months ago they confirmed they had received bids for Genetics, for other businesses, for the company as a whole etc. And assessed the best value was the genetics offer. Now they are saying they didnt't receive any bids for the whole business or other businesses. In the US this would be straight to class action.

Absolute charlatans running this company the way they have reported Botswana. Kept on creating false buzz with no substance. Now bought this new license in Zambia where they'll do the same. Only hope for shareholders is that Anglo gets fed up of having to work withthem and buys Arc Minerals outright so they can go at their own pace on Zambia and consolidates the project to 90% stake.

Based on future milestone payments due from AA and based on exploration costs committed, the implied Arc share in Zambia is equivalent to 1.93p per share. AA should just lob a 2p offer and get it done with. Personally would take a substantial loss but at least there would be some closure.

This has rebounded quite nicely in the last month since falling to 18p. Has quietly moved up on a daily basis to 23p now (30% Up)

Looks like there is some life in this. There was a share issuance on 26 March 2025.

3,873,488 shares issued for a consideration of 4,094,277, so implying a value per share of £1.06.

The total shares outstanding is now 46,440,872 so based on a share price of £1.06 would mean a market capitalization of ~£50m. Think way better than I expected to be honest...

Yes should be a sell. There's still a couple of institutional funds owning sizeable stakes so them just rebalancing portfolios can have a big impact on share price of thinly traded stocks like this one.

Harwood Capital - 29,221,744 Shares - 1% of Portfolio

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management - 21,465,000 - 0.2% of Portfolio

DNB Asset Management AS - 17,447,940 - 0.02% of Portfolio

Gresham House Asset Management Limited - 15,416,273 - 0.4% of Portfolio

etc

I think this doesn't de-list outright, I think this will be taken over and by consequence delist. So the overall question is the price that this gets taken over at. The 3 main shareholders have 72% of the shares. In theory they'll need 90% of the votes to then implement a squeeze out procedure. Hence, I think to get to 90% they'll need to offer a decent premium over the current share price.. Looking at the share chart and the developments in the last 12 months I see a few key points:

1) Share Price was trading at ~35p when they announced the strategic review. Market reacted well to that news and share price then traded at 40-45p for a few months

2) The genetics disposal was "sold" to shareholders as a way to unlock value and once it was announced the share price hovered again towards 40p

Ferd AS has a weighted price of 63p, JNE and Kverva have a weighted price of 43p. I could see a takeover price in the 35p - 45p range.

That's exactly right. So basically the market is saying that a clear market leader in fish farming nutrition, doing ~£80m in annual revenue is worth ~£30-40m (or ~0.5x Revenue).

Think the delay in the return of capital means one thing: this is being taken over by one of the 3 main shareholders.

There's just no point for this to continue being listed currently. The 3 main shareholders own >70% of the company, their entry prices on average are 43p - 63p per share. The business had to do a divestment to repay the debt which was very expensive. But clearly the 3 main shareholders preferred to divest Genetics rather than sell the company off completely. This is now trading at 17p so each of the 3 main shareholders is sititng on a large paper loss.

Nice announcement this morning in the ASX, First Quantum Minerals have invested $10m in Prospect Resources at a 35% premium to prior day share price. Prospect Resources are also drilling on the Zambian Copperbelt. They have an 85% stake in two licenses, totalling 350km2, South of Sentinel and Lumwana. No JV for funding in place for future exploration projects. Their maiden resource following 10,000m of drilling earlier in 2024, was announced in March 2025, 107 million tonnes of ~0.48% Copper. Prospect Resources Market Cap now ~£40m.

ARCM still at £23m Market Cap, with the Anglo JV funding the drill programme, with a bigger land package, 767 km2.

This market is very bizarre, is all I can say....

Disposal completed today. They'll announce the dividend in mid-April.

Post debt repayment there's net proceeds of £107m. Assuming they withold another £10m back in the business (they already had £14m Cash as at 31 December 2024) then there's £97m to distribute out. This will be ~13p per share.

Continuing Operations are expected to do ~£90m Revenue per year, ~£20m EBITDA and generate cash.

Overall, a good outcome, fair value should be more like 40-50p.

Not everything will be distributed to shareholders but yes the market is sleeping on this one.