Member Info for daniscp1906

£4m run-rate of admin expenses is NOT £4m of Cash-Outflows to cover admin expenses. The £4m is an accounting number in the Income Statement, not a number in the Cash Flow Statement.

There isn't a breakdown of admin expenses in the Interim Report (not a requirement) but there is one in the Annual Report for 2022. I would say the actual CASH Admin Expenses are:

Director Fees - £685k

Office Expenses - £114k

Travel and Subsitence Fees - £25k

Professional Fees - £787k

AIM Costs - £151k

Audit Costs - £117k

Other Expenses - £201k

ZACO Admin Costs - £129k

Zamsort Admin Costs - £3k

Handa Admin Costs - £36k

Alvis-Crest ADmin Costs - £7k

So its more like £2.5m than £4.0m of Cash Admin Expenses. And professional fees incurred in 2022 were surely related to the JV Anglo deal so those will come down dramatically now that its done.

The market is hot out there in Zambia....however the terms of this deal against ARCM are insanely different.

FQM is effectively getting 51% stake in each license if two conditions are met:

1) They spend $500,000 in initial exploration costs

2) The indicate mineral resource from initial exploration has to show >300,000 tonnes of contained copper in each license

Cheap for FQM....

Nice find on the Riksförbund (Lärarnas) divestment. Statement was from 31 January 2024 saying they had begun divesting so probably started in late January.

They own 61,287,240 prior to this announcement. On average post November when the Anglo JV was completed, the number of volume on aveage per day in ARCM is ~3,000,000 Shares. Since 30 January to now, it has increased to ~6,000,000. The excess volume since 30 January is about ~40,000,000 shares. Which means there's still a bit more to go but hopefully 2/3 of the way done. Don't think they need to formally disclose the reduction in holding as they own 4.97% so below 5%.

Think I've finally understood why the lack of move up on OPG despite the positive results and all the Coal stocks in India booming for a good few months now.

We obviously had M&G Investment divesting of 47,699,617 shares (~12% stake) last year because they no longer invest in coal related stocks as part of their Investment Policy. Of those, 40,000,000 found their way to Prana and Talisman GP (still unsure who is behind these entities). The remaining 8,000,000 shares were absorbed by us/retailers in the market.

The 4th largest shareholder is Pension Services Limited (13,177,222 or ~3.3% stake). Per companies house this was the Investment Manager of the British Steel Pension Scheme with the relationship terminated last year and the Pension Services Limited company formally dissolved in September 2023. Legal & General were appointed the new investment manager of British Steel Pension Scheme in September 2022 which means they are most likely in charge of the equities side including the legacy investment in OPG. In June 2022, Legal & General made a commitment to not invest in coal related stocks so OPG doesn’t meet that. Which means they are more likely in the process of selling / or have sold the ~3.3% stake.

Close Brothers Asset Management (6,921,819 or 1.7% stake) also have a coal exclusion policy and have been trimming their OPG exposure recently. They also seem to have a lot of internal problems (refer Close Brothers Group share price) so again wouldn’t surprise me if they are in the middle of liquidating the full position.

Time for the Guptas to sell this in its entirety and we would all be very happy with Adani last time in 2020 offering a rumoured ~£120m for OPG or 30p per share.

Results are out in BSE...some more profits to show for the quarter as expected. Slightly higher profits than prior quarter driven by a monster PLF.

Over the last two years the big seller was M&G Investment Management which disposed of over 12% stake in 2022/2023. They are out of the way.

If there is still a large seller could be Close Brothers Asset Management which still had about 2% stake as of July 2023. If you look at their stewardship policy online they say they don't invest in Coal or Tobacco for example so probably will need to divest of this by a certain date.

He is retaining his CFO role presumably. Also he seems to be on a CFO panel in February so would be weird if he had resigned and was participating on that.

They were allegedly approached regarding a buyout during COVID-19 (August 2020) by Adani. Rumoured price was 1,000 - 1,200 Crore which converts to roughly £110m to £132m. Obviously Balance Sheet has improved materially since then as well

Think I heard them say the October PLF was 91%(?) the highest ever in OPG's history.

I'm saying the opposite. Not worried at all....

Not surprising, Management confirming that based on the latest guidance from the Indian Government, a new thermal coal power plan would cost £820k per MW to build, which would imply a replacement value of £350m for OPG's plant.

Makes sense for the market cap to be at £50m lol

Another bullish signal, now by the largest credit rating agency in India (and rating OPG's debt).

Crisil Ratings Team Leader Mithun Vyas said, "Overall, we expect coal-based power plants rated by us to witness over 20 percent on-year rise in cash flow from operations (CFO) this fiscal year"

Results look decent. Already higher profit in half year than the full year ending March 2023 (at the OPG Generation in India level). This is the main comment:

During the half year ended September 30 2023, reduction in coal prices helped the Company in continued generation and supply under STOA & IEX to other states like Uttarkhand, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh. TANGEDCO approved variable charges under LTOA helped in better revenue and margins. Reduced coal prices have also helped in reducing the cost of generation and supply.

Given the increase demand for Power in India, and clear guidance across all areas for local councils to run all plants at 100% lately, as well as the commitment to build new coal power stations in the short term, various companies listed in the BSE have had a re-rating.

The most relevant comps to OPG are Gujarat Power Industries (+55% in last 6 months) , CESC (+30% in last 6 months), NTPC (+35% in last 6 months), NLC (+78% in last 6 months), Reliance (+77% in last 6 months), Jaiprakash (+147% in last 6 months), Rattan India (+156% in last 6 months). OPG is up 50% as well but on an EV/EBITDA metric lags way behind its peer group. There's quite a bit more to run on this one I think.

Seem quite lazy to me. For one they have Debt of ~£40m for March 2023 with an Interest Payment of £3.2m for the year. Implied Interest Rate of 8%. Then in FY24 Debt is down to £25m with Interest Payment of £3.5m? Implied interest rate of 14%. Seems too much.

Capex is £100k each year. OPG carried out maintenance capex in FY23 associated with emission compliance that they had guided the market previously on (a few £m) so completely innacurate from Cenkos even for the current year.

Overall trading update was fine, main concern for me is the lack of engagement with investors, no offer for Q&A etc.

Great, thanks!

Anyone have access?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-home-changed-name-and-fresh-start-for-arcturis-sg7jgfphr

Yeah what's even more bizarre was the CFO commenting on the announcement on LinkedIn. So he is "active" but not active enough to issue a formal RNS... I get that no trading update has been given because the prior quarter wasn't great so presumably they want to do a monster RNS incorporating everything at once (just surprised they are allowed to not publish material information such as debt raises).

1) Trading Update

2) Karnataka Solar Plants Divestment Update

3) Debt Repayments

4) Debt Raise

5) New 10% Shareholder

Elara exclusively advised OPG Power to successfully raise INR 750Mn NCDs

h***://www.linkedin.com/posts/elara-capital_elara-exclusively-advised-opg-power-to-successfully-activity-7064154349052043264-PjMw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Looks like they raised the Non Convertible Debentures they announced they were looking to do in the BSE back in Dec 2022.

750m INR so ~£7.3m. Curious to see interest rate and what they are planning to use it for. Also shocking that there is no RNS for it.