Member Info for daniscp1906

Book value is a flawed metric imo, distorted by accounting policies especially around PPE. The original cost of the coal plant was capitalised and there's no guarantee that a sale would be at current book value (not unusual for these to trade below book value). Having said auditors should test it for impairment (albeit they rely on Management to provide estimates of future cash flows etc so becomes circular).
A more reliable estimate of value is looking at recent transactions of coal power stations in India and computing an Enterprise Value / Installed MW Capacity metric. Valuations will be driven by factors such as Commissioning Date, PLF, Tariff Regime, potential for enhancement capacity, but ultimately one can get a decent sense of value.
There have been various transactions recently in this space and all at EV/MW multiples of £0.4m-£0.6m. Its a narrow range and gives confidence on its accuracy. OPG has installed capacity of 414MW so easy maths to show that a hypothetical sale would yield multiples of the current market capitalisation.

Yeah seems like a no-brainer if they had the know-how to implement a strategy of re-positioning the business to renewables. The market is not valuing the coal plants appropriately so need to create value in another way.

Loss making, not overly surprising. 10% Down. Would have been useful to get a Q&A session....

How much value do we think the Mutual Funds Investments have lost since the last report? Not sure I understand what type of Mutual Funds they would have invested in or how investment value might have moved but has crossed my mind as a bit of an unforeseen risk.

No point in running the plant when coal price is higher than revenue its getting from selling the power

How many shares are people holding?

What are people expecting for revenue, plant load factor and EBITDA for the first 6 months when results are out later this month?

They only need 75% of the shareholders who elect to vote. Which they will get 100% certain.

Gatemore, Sand Grove, Drayson and Lansdowne have 44%. The NHS Trusts + Oxford Uni have 13%. These are all in on the restructuring per the RNS. So that's 57% of all the shareholders already. A lot of retail investors don't exercise their right to vote so 57% of shareholding will be more than enough to get 75% shareholders votes on the AGM.

This not to say I don't believe the share price is undervalued, I personally think it is. Just don't think the catalyst is that these shareholders would buy additional stakes to get to the 75% shareholding pre-vote.

So Jefferies (~1% Shareholding) basically bought and sold similar amount of shares on Friday so they haven't liquidated position.

Will be interesting to see who's offloaded on Monday morning. Total shares outstanding are 170m....A lot of the 95m will be the same shares going around but I suspect we'll be seeing a few Institutionals exiting (the ones that don't have a remit to hold investment in unlisted equities)

New RNS. AIM delisting coming up, Drayson steps down, further loan notes to be issued, new CEO. A lot to take in there

This needs to hold 10p, the warrant price for the rescue package

Would have been problematic if they had to adjust the shares issued based on the current share price. In this case the only person losing out is GOSH.

GOSH sold their data for 1,428,571 shares which when it was agreed on 18th of September 2021 were worth £1.47 each so effectively Sensyne was buying the data for an hypothetical consideration of £2.1m.

In reality they now issued the 1,428,571 shares at 11p market price so effectively GOSH are getting a consideration of £150k instead of £2.1m.

Think the £5m or 6m emergency funding gives them a runway until end of May 2022. If they get the remaining £5m or £6m that can be extended for another 4 months. I suspect Ukraine might add some further risk into the mix but not significant, we're talking a market cap of £20m at 11p. Even if you assume a takeover at 50p the market cap is still only £100m which is peanuts for Big Pharmas or Biotechs (and these businesses are not strapped for cash). Still think that at this price its a no brainer for ExScientia

For the past 2 weeks, Peel Hunt was buying anything that went below 17p. Seems like they've let it slid below that last couple of days. They are holding quite a few shares so could be they decided they couldn't continue to buy the excess in the market.

Interesting to see 10 job openings advertised on LinkedIn, including some added in last week. Still a meaningful 6% increase going by the 171 Existing Staff Members on LinkedIn (~145 referenced in last annual report).

At 25p would mean that a lot of major investors would be under water, including the ones that put the Emergency Funding in place. Find that hard to believe personally.

Gatemore (6% post Warrants exercised) ~35p Cost Basis
Sand Grove (13% post Warrants exercised) ~25p Cost Basis
Lansdowne (11% post Warrants exercised) ~75p Cost Basis
Baillie Gifford (6.5%) ~100p Cost Basis

At 25p the market cap would be £50m (once Warrants are exercised). At that price the likes of Exscientia would probably takeover Sensyne. £2.5bn Market Cap with a bunch of cash from the recent IPO, since Dec-21 working with Sensyne and using their database per company announcements. Also as a coincidence, headquartered in the same building as Sensyne in Oxford.

Even though its completely unrelated it moved slightly downwards on the USA inflation numbers. Can't see any activity from Institutionals ahead of tomorrow so I suspect buys and sells were retail driven + Market Makers. Any sell order below 17p in the last few days has been mopped off by Peel Hunt. So its just that 100,000 share purchase near the end of the day (£17k) that was on the unusual side imo.

Curious to see the outcome tomorrow, presumably the warrants allocation will get approved eventhough it needs 75% majority, otherwise in theory the emergency funding could be recalled. Also interesting to see that on the 31 January a charged was filed against Sensyne which presumably is by the emergency funding lenders consortium as it coincides with the date of the announcement that the emergency funding had closed. Whether there will be any more news straight after tomorrow, I'm not sure.

In between the lines you can understand that the debtor is Excalibur Healthcare Services. This is for various reasons:

1) In Feb 2021 Magnifeye was licensed to Excalibur on an exclusive basis with a minimum guarantee of £4.8m payable over 2 years.
2) The more recent announcement states that Magnifeye is no longer licensed on an exclusive basis and the minimum guarantee was removed, albeit royalties will still be received for sales.
3) HSBC has a charge on Excalibur since March 2021 per Companies House filings. So presumably HSBC have first right of repayment for any money due from Excalibur and hence are probably not allowing Excalibur to pay the Sensyne debtor before they get paid themselves.

The NHS Board probably not. Although when the press connects the dots I could see some headlines about it. Especially if ultimately Drayson and his institutional friends buy this out on the cheap and squeeze put minority shareholders including the NHS trusts who are indirectly the reason this business exists