Shooting the messenger22 Mar 2023 01:15
As has been said, I do wish we could could critique the issues, not individuals, as the former aids us all, the latter noone.
I first invested here about 5 years ago, and frankly I was seduced variously by the field size, potential, life of the field, ergo income, profit, SP appreciation, dividends. As someone who focuses on value, yield (or both), I felt it was undervalued. I still feel it is undervalued and in that my belief hasn't changed.
But, precisely because of the detail, pragmatism of posts of a select few here - the very same contributors that are so vilifed here, my understanding has grown immeasurably (GKP was my first oil investment). Those contributions so dismissed, educated me away from what I thought would be a shortish term hold for SP appreciation, metamorphosing into a long term yield stock. Felt instead of a quick 50% gain, I was in something that would yield 10% for 10 years which I felt was more desirable.
6 months ago, having focused on the 'profit oil' precisely because of those pragmatic posts, I took a stance that GKP would generate FCF of £100 million a year going forward, enough to garner a secured 10%ish yield and some SP appreciation. A figure based on the production and oil price then without notable production growth. Since then, OP has dropped back, and the KBT pricing has dented that considerably, and I see it being £50 million, comfortable enough to yield 10%, which is what I'm invested here for, and anticipate will be for the next 5 years. I am hopeful of production increases, but the recent trajectory suggests the pipe dreams of 100,000 bod ate just that.
It's precisely because of the posts so derided, that I've never seen a £2 billion company, £250 million of annual dividends or an imminent takeover here, rather, as I've suggested before, a United Utility type infrastructure type investment with consistent profits and consistent albeit elevated dividends. And it's on that basis I'm here.
The 2 issues I see here are that anyone that suggests outcomes (lower income/dividends etc) is targeted as negative/dumping on GKP and that too many here are preoccupied with the messenger whilst blind to the message.
It is precisely because of the contributions/contributors so derided as negative that I am so positive about GKP, they've aided my understanding and belief in my investment, and as such am quite happy to be aligned as a fan of such, thank them for such.
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