Member Info for damofarl

Unless they announce a further kwale mine extension, I think the earnings will be, for the most part, retained for Toliara.

In the context of bridging to the oppurtunity that Toliara is, will be happy/surprised to see 1p divvy

Nael; I think this is a slow burner, but fundamentals are good. I think anyone holding medium term will out. Rewarding - for the patient.

Still rising, and full year results a month away ....so under the radar this....

Dubiousinvestor;

'Gross average production in 2023 year to date of c.47,800 bopd'

What are you suggesting by this, being as there has only been one month to date?

Hobione; yes half way there, bit I think that was more to tick the previously announced annual dividend, rather than an indicator of the direction of travel. And yes I enjoyed last year's 40% yield, which depending on when you bought in the year, flattered a 15% SP loss. Last year's 'yield' was flattered by the now extinct return of costs incurred many years ago (at the expense of long term suffering investors/speculators), a salient consideration often highlighted by the seemingly continually maligned PUTUP, who first highlighted it's importance, to 2022 receipts, and ergo the reduction of such in 2023.

All that said, I'd be delighted if you are right, and will happily apologise for laughing/dismissing such at year end.

We will be closer to 10 than 40%. We differ in that my pragmatism says that's a great, realistic baseline and yours is the euphoria of looking in the rear view mirror whilst discounting what is in full view ahead.

Such exuberance makes Opulentia look like a hawk.

Anyone expecting a divvy thow off here of c$200m this year are either delusional/naive/pumping.

Unless there is improvement in payments (doubtful), KBT pricing is neutral (doubtful), production increases 10% (doubtful), imminent KRG/Iraqi agreement (doubtful), I see a maximum THIS year of $50m dividend, until those factors improve (of which I'm doubtful they will materially).

Until such improvement, we are looking at a high yielding (10%ish) churning utility/infrastructure type company, a boringness that will actually stabilise, enhance the SP long term.

Looking at the update...top end planned capital expenditure at $175m with $126m of that cash at bank. Note the divvy is at the level, but not above, previously announced annual dividend commitment, so feel the desire is to self fund from cash/cash flow rather than seeking financing, signalling to me that there will be little by way of further divvy distributions this year - which I'm happy with, on both counts
Be interesting to see what difference SH17 and SH18 production in 1Q and 2Q respectively will add, and whether the 2023 midpoint production increase is achieved, and whether any such increase reduces the cost per bbl which has been stretched upwards.
Quite blunt (diplomatic?), in a non confrontational way about the uncertainty of timely payments, and suggests that the stretching/delay of payments for September etc, is primarily to do with it's discussions on the new KBT reference price, the effective date of which was 01/09/22.

Happy with the emphasis of "maintaining robust balance sheet" and "flexibility to modulate investment based on outlook for oil price & timeliness of KRG payments"....which I see as a conscious decision not to invest/grow (on debt) and to merely churn asset life IF payment is continually delayed/uncertain. Once Sep to Dec invoices are received that would fully cover years capex and another $25m divvy, and I would be happy for them just to churn a 10% yield whilst only maintaining production/capex based on continued elongation/uncertainty of payments.

Gas flaring reduction/reinjection - I don't understand the mechanics of this, hence, can someone explain why we can't capture this for sale. It must be substantial/of value.

On a lighter note, I notice GKP'aiding of olive oil production in the community - do we think that shareholders might receive a bottle of GKP branded olive oil at any subsequent in person AGM?

As this US share is sp****ly known here, and even less posted on, thought I'd write a quick synopsis of Jackson (JXN), of which I'm a big fan.

I'm a holder, having previously held (UK) PRU shares and received them in a spin off, and there must be many many PRU holders who have these, (who sporadically mention on the PRU board), but I have gone on to buy more on a couple of occasions.

I'm generally a yield and/or value investor, and see growth stocks generally as an illusionary continual promise of jam tommorow. I prefer a little jam every day. Unusually I see JXN by virtue of it's business, of being undervalued/underfollowed as potentially a high yielder that could also see considerable SP growth.

In a nutshell, it's a pension/annuity provider, taking fees along the way for providing a promissory level of income/payout. In some regards it shares some similarities to PNX, albeit they are more managing live policies/plans rather than running down/realising them.

Plus sides - their ongoing fee income is substantial, this year alone being over half their mkt cap.
Continual market with increasing life expectancy, growing aged population.
Well respected, award winning in their market, a market leader in a disparate market (Lincoln National is a comparator/competitor).
Current yield 5% plus with buybacks in operation.

Downsides - little stand alone reporting/accounts due to recent spin out suggests no history/longevity of success/profitability, despite being long established/a household name.
Consequently little analyst/financial coverage/awareness compounded by, in US terms, JXN is a minnow not worthy of coverage/investment.

JXN extensively deploys options to underpin it's obligations, which in accounting terms are reported in quick one time terms, often resulting in very large headline losses, that frighten the mkts, seemingly being detached from the longevity of fees, policy success they are underpinning.
Being in US terms a minnow it is subject to a large short interest that would ordinarily ring alarm bells here in the UK, having recently been 12% but sharply reduced recently to around 4%, and this can cause sharp gyrations 10/15% in a week, so not for the faint hearted - I've been down AND up 20% in 6 months.

The company has non obligated cash at hand equal to 15% of it's market cap, a p/e of less than 1 and yields 5% in a market, which has no end.

I strongly believe that within 3 years the annual cash throw off will constitute a 10% yielder, for the patient.

Hope this helps someone, engenders some discussion with PRU holders and others, away from, distinct from the PRU board.

Tom78; hope you held your nerve - even those $38 buys are in the money now!

Still a volatile share, but thankfully recently that has been decidedly up. Still can't believe how undervalued this is, being in US terms, a small cap, it gets minimal coverage and can be subject to considerable short activity (albeit recently down from above 10 to around 4%).

I generally invest for yield, and whilst it is currently quite high for the US, I believe within 3 years this could transpire into a 10% yielder. It is for that reason I am undecided as to whether to trim a little of my current SP profit (mindful of it's gyrations) or hold completely for long term yield appreciation. 3q/year results due end of February and has risen early/sharply into those.

Any thoughts Tom, anyone?

Jim800;
Watched this, and whilst not exactly exuberant at it, quietly happy.

Production down 10% not great, looking at 10 prospects shows their direction/focus and the seeming delay to fruition suggests a diligence to not overpay, and the mention of 'big players' sniffing around the Morroco farm out sounds good.
Very specific about maintaining the bond to keep firepower for M&A, with no intention to repay. Probably paying 10% on that so pleased to learn that they are getting 3-4% back on cash at hand.

Frequent reaffirming of the dividend level (and desire to maintain/grow) a positive.

I see with no M&A progress, reduced production, no override benefit, and oil at current $80 levels, 2023 cashflow of $140 mill (including $64 mill debt) which comfortably covers the dividend.

As others have said, to be paid 11% to patiently wait for progress/accept KRG shenanigans is no bad place to be. And that's where I see us.

We do need to kick on/diversify but quite happy sitting on a worse case scenario of them running licence/field to demise whereby in just 4 years income and cash at hand equal mkt cap.

The cash in hand is great, and combined with income until mine expiry is greater than mkt cap, never a bad place to be as an investor.

The current SP drift down may just be the annual lull before divvy announcements, but I feel it could be more, and the sell off by a long term substantial holder supports such.

I'm a fan, with no intention of selling believing in the long term as I do, but it's that belief that tells me there will be no juicy divvy this time, and if one at all, a minimal one, to preserve/build cash reserves for Toliara, to bridge the gap between current mine end, and no income, to the costs of bringing that to fruition. I hope I'm wrong,

If you are here for the medium/long term I don't see that as a problem (nay desirable). Obviously if BSE is a trade/income yielder for you, you will feel differently - and I think the SP short term will reflect such.

Holders here might want to note the recent RNS from BGLF. A tacit admission that their 3 year buyback hasn't reduced NAV discount but also a confidence that it is true.

Have to say, I think the mood music from TORO of late has been less than certain, whilst not panicked, so be interesting to see if they proclaim confidence in their NAV discount, ongoing success, that both BGLF and FAIR seem to be highlighting.

Followers of FAIR/CLO stocks might want to note BGLF's recent RNS, to consult on narrowing/realising NAV discount, which includes a realisation share akin to FAIR's of last year. It's a tacit admission that despite 3(?) Years of buybacks it hasn't narrowed, but also, to me a confidence in their market, the validity of that NAV.

Sort of reinforces my concern here that buybacks don't really realise value for holders (cements yes), but speaks positively for the arena. FAIR has stated divvy is easily covered by income, and whilst a cursory glance at FAIRs realisation shares suggests they have done better than FAIR, I do think FAIR has similar confidence it's NAV is true, and their new fixed divvy means they will issue a special divvy at some point (having already done the realisation route).

Interesting RNS about consulting over the continual discount to NAV. One could see it as an admission of failure that buybacks haven't worked/reduced the discount to NAV. Personally I feel it highlights their confidence that the discount is a true discount and not transient/volatility led, and supports that they are continually creating value/margin/profit. Private investors like me won't have a say, but the options are, an increased dividend (yes), or a separate share issue to realise run down assets (yes) or more direct ownership investment in instruments (with their record not a bad thing but perpetuates the status quo, so no).

The recent pick up in SP suggests confidence by BGLF and the market that they are doing well, and the discount is true, and whatever the consultation outcome, reinforces my confidence in my investment here, which has turned SP positive for the first time in the 5/6 years I have held.

Interested in others views on this RNS.

Does anyone have a link for current market prices for rutile etc? I had a cursory look yesterday and could only find subscription based provision, albeit the little nuggets i did find suggest BSE's minerals price is continuing it's upwards trajectory which if quantifiable bodes well.

Felt it was a bit of a nothing update, nothing great, nothing awful. More of the same really - which in some ways is not a bad thing.

Initially I felt my view of 3 months that their was an acquisition/diversification imminent was wrong, but looking at the numbers, i still think they have their eyes on something specific. Else why would you maintain an effective cash in hand of $559 million? (including the $64 mill they state should have been paid for 2022 oil).

Even taking off a maintained dividend ($50 mill) and 2023 capital costs ($125 mill) they are maintaining cash 'firepower of $384 million rather than clear the debt which would be accretive well within a year and still leave $110 mill 'just in case'. Just can't decipher their thinking, but still feel we are deeply undervalued SP wise.

Interesting to see the 5% threshold notification from Border to Coast Pensions Partnership Limited on this.

Border to Coast Pensions Partnership Limited is basically the local govt pension schemes umbrella fund managing some serious beans. The board chair Chris Hitchen, was previously the CEO of RPS (Railway Pension Scheme) so likely to follow their modus operandi Buffet style of buy and hold. A good signal adding to the substantial holdings held here by large intuitional investors like Black Rock/Quilter/Abrdn etc).

bully for you; but can we have a link to the next/the schedule of dividends; you are obviously invested here so should no it all....why can't i find ANYWHERE, such? Other than in your great news story.

PUTUP;

I don't think for a minute your a paid protagonist - and frankly if you were, based on the views i've seen you post here, i would pay for them.

Sometimes i disagree with you (funding from loans/"equity"), sometimes you niggle me. But most, i see someone whose observations/considerations/contributions inform all our understanding of our investment here. Alas, whilst i see your detailed numbers/reasoning, your pragmatism and realism to GKP's future/prospects questioned as someone 'dumping' GKP, i don't see such questioning of, say, Opulentia's relentless 'pumping' of GKP. And that is the sticky place you sit in, informing people what they need to hear rather than what they want to hear.

I for one, advocate you stick to such, as paid or not, I value your contributions, which have value beyond just noise. i see someone who contributes to the debate rather than debating the contributors. Keep it up.

(of course i would say that because i'm paid to, with an agenda, and 5 avatars....)

midleeastmoney; my reading of the RNS was effective from 1 jan 2021.....