Member Info for Daisydog

I confess that the results of Sammy's poll yesterday were a surprise to me - most seem to feel that management are doing a good job. (So good to hear that we are not a badly managed company - the share price would really have tanked if that had been the case - sarcasm pdub!!) . I wish I'd had the good financial sense that PABLOG displayed in shifting money from BMN into ATM (the company where existing shareholders were royally shafted when it was spun out - remember? MCAP now 1.5 x BMN ) - that seems to be a company run on sound principles with a CEO that is developing a well-deserved reputation for delivering on his promises.

FM has lost my trust - now failed on so many promises - anyone remember "We can and we will do something about the SP" and " We hear you" about the poor communications? And I now cannot understand why people continue to think the Vanchem DEAL was such a good one AT THE PRICE WE PAID - the share issue to complete this has largely been the cause of the SP fall this year as Duferco sold out at the first possible opportunity (and I recall Alfa trashing views from people that said they might! ), has stressed BMN very significantly from a financial point of view (The Orion debt) and even the due diligence seems to have been poor as the difficulties in getting it up and running have clearly been underestimated by management.

That said , I can't see any downside in the SP at this price. I believe we are profitable although the effect of load shedding on production worries me enormously and the minigrid goes nowhere near solving this. If I wasn't so so overexposed and so under water here , I'd buy more. But , then again , I'm a pessimistic troll according to some...

I've been saying for a little while that the "junior" spin out (ATM) from BMN (where we were all shafted in terms of shares given) has now very definitely out-performed the parent company.
Why?

Well , they've had some luck - Ta and Li in the spoil to be processed almost for free. BMN haven't had much luck - Covid and fall in V price as world economy slowed.

But I wonder how much of their success is down to AV consistently delivering on what he says he will do ? Something we aren't good at doing here. The confidence in a CO that gets done what he says he will do , has a big effect on the valuation of the company.

Lawrence, I guess a lot of the frustrations here are the result of very very many of us being a long long way underwater and at the end of our tether with the progress the company makes being reflected in it's share price. But surely you have to understand that asking if one delivery to the US confirms production guidance will be met is not a sensible comment to make and invited you to be called either ill-informed or a ramper?

Sorry if that comes across as "intolerable and disgusting"

I know I have been accused repeatedly of negativity here, but I stand by my view as realistic. The market now does not believe FM - why should they? I cannot bring myself to sell up and ask myself why - it's largely because I'd have to accept that I've been wrong all along . And, perversely, I could almost cope better with losing my investment than sell it all now and find that in a year the SP is 20p.........which I tell myself is not wholly unrealisitic.

I rather think the SP confirms that my realism is actually much more reflective of where we are than your ramping. When did you buy back in?

"Does this put us on target for 5,000 mtVp.a. - 5,400 mtVp.a?

Err, no, Lawrence, this doesn't. It is still possible that production is way down because of load shedding on that but sales maintained through the sale of the stockpile.

Lindon, whilst I applaud your enthusiasm for posting things with the word "battery" in it, isn't this is of limited relevance to BMN at the moment? It doesn't even mention the word Vanadium and , like the rest of the world, seems completely unaware of this technology. Its not going to have any short or even medium term effect on us.

Anyone else increasingly cheesed off that BMN are so very good at notifying of every bloody change in Director (with the associated costs of an RNS) but so absolutely woeful at notifying of anything else?

(PS I KNOW they have to notify but it's the lack of other news on anything that would be useful to investors eg Lemur, State of Electrolyte plant , orders for said plant etc etc.....)

Battery storage beginning in SA....Jeez , that's an overworked, very long standing (and still aspirational) statement.
I'm afraid I have a different view to pdub on FM: Extremely disappointing. And don't get me going on MN....

And Halespur : as a newbie here you can't complain about 4 years ;-) - some of us have been here much longer but because we believed in FM and MN bought as the SP was rising and are now very significantly under water after waiting nearly a decade for some purchases to come good.

And before some **** says move on and sell up ...if I did, I'd be crystallising a bigloss here and we must be at the bottom for God's sake surely.

Yes.....but....will the market see 20p as a sensible opening price or will it tank or soar?

I've been wrestling with the value the recent RNS might add to BMN. We know that BMN / BE will have a majority share of MUST. But what will this be worth? Is it fair to say that it all depends on the SP when MUST relists? So, if the SP is single figures pence , it's not adding much and would perhaps be a raw deal for PIs. If it relists at a higher price with the expected (hoped for) workflow , then this could be another Fortune masterstroke?

Knuttie, Whist I hope you are right, I don't think this is at all how FM thought it would go. I think he felt sure the SP would stay above 17p for the Orion money, that VRFBs would have been much more mainstream by now , and that some benefit would have been derived by BMN from the Eskom tender process. It's been years slower than I believe he thought it would be.

....but as ever it's as clear as mud!....

ES - yes , that's the way I read it - " BM and BE will collectively hold 51.5 % of Mustang" .......

Is this how others see it?

UJ, I've been thinking about simple laws of supply and demand for nearly a decade now with this stock. Metals at the moment don't seem to behave according to a simple S-D model. Terry Perles got it entirely wrong with Vanadium several years ago (predicted significant shortages) and for example the tin price is just not understandable - record highs this year with no stock in LME and then a crash to a point where quite a lot of tin production is loss making.
So, until this really translates into meaning something for BMN I'm kinda not holding my breath. Sorry, but the breathless enthusiasm for things that MIGHT be good for a Vanadium producer has been beaten out of me.

Very interesting reading the posts today. I can see both sides of the arguments: AlfredH has a point in my view (although he clearly needs a life or is working very hard to cover a short position). It hasn't been possible to work at nameplate for a variety of reasons some of which were out of the control of BMN. The figures clearly prove that. The cost of bringing Vametco up to full capacity and the timescale needed to achieve this seem to have been underestimated by management - but I don't think FM deliberately mislead anyone - it just proved that the infrastructure he acquired wasn't quite as good as thought at the time and maybe why the "deal of the century" wasn't quite the deal it seemed.

BUT : where are we now?

GOOD FIRST: If you are a new investor looking in now, this is a screaming buy. Many of the teething problems have been resolved and the delayed electrolyte plant is near complete (I'd still like to see orders for electrolyte confirmed). This is a great opportunity to buy at a fraction of the price that many of us LTH bought in at and new investors will be glad they bought in just a couple of years in my opinion.

BAD : If you bought many years ago (like me) and bought through the rise to 2018 then you are probably underwater and have every right to be very very frustrated with the company and the delays. I'd buy more if I wasn't already very overexposed here.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DYOR

Its just a shame that running the asset has proved rather more challenging than the process of buying it!

Don't post much anymore but still have an awful lot of these - and can't help but observe that all the vilification I've had from the likes of pdub has been proven to be unreasonable by the SP performance which has amply borne out my pessimism. I should have believed myself and sold rather than be influenced by pdub ( who I think is an honest poster ) and duplicitous ones like RK. My fault. But anyone who doesn't think that positive posts influence people is deluded.

No director buys because "in a closed period" - the number of times I've heard that with an AIM share - LOL -

MI2. Sorry , don't understand you. Vest production? And what short selling?

We seem to be falling out with too many players... first Garnet and then IES which is a bit of a concern. And it looks like ATM will be worth more than BMN fairly shortly. Great management at ATM. I wish I could say the same here.