Member Info for Daisan

The great reset/2030 thing is quite interesting. The idea of renting vs ownership is one that Tesla, for example, is expounding as the future for car usage where the Tesla fleet becomes one that is shared via rental of self drive vehicles (although this does envisage ownership as well I believe). Airbnb creates a similar model for housing if you expand it to its logical extreme. I am not sure how this works for smaller things, however, such as kitchen utensils.

Que sera sera.

The impact of a failure is only so great because the system has been allowed to deteriorate to that level. But failure is inevitable within our basic system so why put it off so that it becomes a crisis? Protection against financial risk by government introduces moral hazard and that undermines the whole system, accentuating all of the ultimate negative impacts.

I don't really believe in 'too big to fail'. Yes, undoubtedly there is a great deal of pain if one of these institutions do fail but that is what free markets are all about. Preventing these failures institutionalises the issues and ensures that the pressure will build until far more pain is ultimately released. Failure effectively lances the boil. This is why, for me, Gordon Brown was the unwitting villain if the financial crisis.

That's an impressive surge in cost per unit in the last 24 hours! Just shows that the name of the game is changing as renewables gain steadily more share of the generating capacity. Energy storage is obviously part of the solution and should ensure that the demand for this increases significantly over the coming years.

I take it that you believe a war and civil unrest in their two areas of operation have not in any way contributed to this being 'a joke'?

The whole point of CGH is to build a company in areas of the world that are not particularly popular. That is going to lead to something that is hardly for widows and orphans.

I wouldn't pay too much attention to UTs. They are quite often there to obfuscate. The price has been strong on high volume for the last few sessions which bodes well for the future even if we see a pull back to digest the gains.

I see that we had a ridiculous U/T at 11. Way outside the spread. The games that are played eh?

Not great to see on Christmas Eve! They will return I am sure.

Merry Christmas everyone. It looks like 2021 could be a very significant year on many fronts, not least BMN.

It was a completely different company in 2010 in terms of ownership and management so at least the mistakes you suggest are new to them!

I tend to disagree that this segment of the market is particularly forward looking or, at least, not intelligently so. It is driven by sentiment and this can swing rapidly as ALTN is testament to. At 3p there was a stream of positive commentary whilst here (at the equivalent of 1p) there is broad negativity.

At this level there is an opportunity for a punt with the market capitalisation being so low compared to the assets. It is difficult to describe it as an investment as we are yet to see significant evidence that the money they have raised in the last 12 months is making a material impact on the operational performance of the business. Clearly the movement of material is more effective but grade remains elusive and processing shows little sign of improvement.

Lobsi,

You need to understand the nature of the assets. The Armenian operation has only recently been acquired and was underperforming. This is gradually being improved and the EBITDA contribution is growing but it is polymetalic so the gold price alone is not the only factor and capital investment is ongoing.

But the larger asset is in Kyrgyzstan and this requires a lot more capital.

It is hardly surprising that the company as a whole is not profitable even though Kapan is. Better to judge on the assets (which are very large) until Tulkubash is operational.

Are you referring to the quarterly report? If so, it is not a requirement but I wouldn't assume that it won't come. Altyn dances to its own beat and it is not one that the rest of us understand!

But if we see improvements in grade and ore processed (and, hence, production) when they do report, there will inevitably be a re-rate. But in order for this to get to the levels the assets deserve, they will definitely need to up their communications.

Agreed. And to the US you can add every other nation that is struggling with the economic impacts of COVID-19 (although the situation predates that - it is just a trigger). Neither Biden nor Trump are ideal candidates (and that is an understatement) but both are irrelevant to the direction of travel of the gold price.

Nothing to do with the fact that President Trump has alienated more people than he has followers then? Definitely the ‘deep state’?

It doesn't look like a flag to me. Just stuck in the same range we have been in since April currently.

If all the gold has been bought (I am not sure what this means but let's go with it), the price will just rise until such a point that someone sells. That's what a market is surely?

If you buy in a placing, surely you have an investment timeframe of more than a week.

Unfortunately the surprise nature of the placing (even though it makes sense if you consider remarks made by EZ about rewarding shareholders rather than making them wait) has coincided with some gold price and market weakness but these things happen and is the reason why you need patience.

They have assets in a war zone and a country that has just changed power in dubious circumstances so it is not surprising that there is some disquiet!

Well, the appearance of the size of their debt will vary according to the production profile. At 15k oz production, relatively high, at 50k oz, quite low. The purpose of the debt was to bring about the ramp up in production so let's see how that goes.

I think that if you are aware of the history here you would probably be more appreciative of what MA has done but let's not kid ourselves - if this works out he will be amply rewarded for taking the risk of working with projects in difficult regions.

I would slightly disagree with your assessment of timescale. This is not an annual thing as I recall - these loan notes were taken out before 2019 I believe. But, yes, he has been amply compensated. Of course, if it doesn't come off then he will be up the proverbial creek, although quite often these principles seem to manage to avoid the worst of it somehow.

So, no, I don't believe that this is a scam but I would become less impressed if we don't see a financing package in place in time to see progress on Tulkubash in the spring.

By the way, what do you consider 'true value'?

Indeed. The cash coming in will have two very significant impacts - it provides the necessary funds to materially progress Beutong, enabling the share price to start reflecting the inherent value, and it removes the prospect of a placing in the future. Both of these are very welcome.