Member Info for Daisan

I suggest reading the last update from a week or so ago. It gives an indication of the potential hold ups that are out of their control and unlikely to be met by the target date of 30/7.

Ma5k,

It's been a while since you posted. Welcome back!

Troajan,

Yes, I agree. But China has unique challenges and the most similar recent economy is Japan 30 years ago.

China's growth is no longer 'good' growth for China as they have been building infrastructure that nobody needs for years. Hence, debt without benefit. It still fuels demand for Vanadium of course but China is heading for a bad place.

You seem to have switched from $ to £. But the point remains the same.

It was an 'administrative error'. Very plausible.

"Orion have refused to refinance the loan while Mojapelo is in charge".

Whilst I think that it is likely that Orion made this a condition, I don't recall seeing anything concrete on this. Could you point me to this statement so that I can see what else I have missed in this fast running saga?

That depends on the type of trade.

Excluding new capital investment from FCF IS normal. Generally speaking, sustaining capital is included in the calculations. However, this is just another of those occasions when the accounting function can fudge the issue so don't expect consistency!

That's so 2018. The Greeks will be sharpening their blades over that reference to Macedonia.

I'll be fine. Thanks for your concern!

I love these articles. They have such fascinating takes. The EV suggestion about fewer cars on the road being shared is exactly the vision of Tesla. Elon Musk is praised as a visionary for it whereas here it is indicative of an evil elite. Love it.

'Panic selling' doesn't suggest rational thought. But the nature of the selling depends on the nature of the pressure. A large stake in something like Ryanair could be placed whereas this is unlikely to be the case for SHG.

If the fund is indeed being wound up then all assets will be sold. You will also get an element of front running which will also result in pressure on the share price.

The link suggests that Odey don't hold SHG at all as far as I can see but we know that to be incorrect.

Well, the evidence from other countries is 'pretty much everything'. China have overplayed their hand though, both domestically and internationally. There are many points of failure within their system now.

Given the potential amount of free cash flow, they should be able to increase the dividend and pay down debt whilst still being able to carry out the necessary capital investment and exploration at the three assets.

But let's see the cash coming through first and then consider where this money is best spent. I am not a fan of companies retaining excess capital as they have a tendency to make silly decisions.

There are ways in which they could realise the value, significantly uplifting the dividend being the obvious one. If the market doesn't increase the share price, at least you could accept a 10% dividend. The current dividend costs very little but doesn't provide much insentive for income seekers.

I quite liked the prospect of having goats delivered.

We invest at this end of the market precisely because it is disfunctional. You wouldn't get the significant under and overvaluation if the market was efficient. Buy at one and sell at the other and you can make very large gains. But it is extremely difficult to do so and requires a lot of patience, which most investors do not have.

Of course, it can also not pan out the way you plan, which is why you need to invest more broadly than one share.

It may spike there but I am expecting it to settle around 15-16p.

But the short term share price is not really my interest. I try to identify macro trends and run them for the longer term. So I am much more interested in the deals they are looking to make and whether they can spend that money in a way that will increase value.

In a rising gold price environment (as I expect), that will lead to a share price considerably higher than 20p, especially considering that the chairman's aim has long been to produce a million ounce producer in the FSU.