Member Info for Daisan

Not much volume though so Labro have barely started. And yet we are just nudging into multi year highs.

Rochefort 10 is my favourite but Westmalle Dubbel or Corsendonk are great for those times when you might actually have to get up after drinking

Very unlikely that a major will buy Shanta. It is just too small. This is the very reason why Shanta are able to buy Barrick's Kenyan asset so it works in our favour as well. Any suitor would much more likely be a small/mid tier producer who wants to incrementally grow ounces.

I tend to look at things in a slightly more positive way than this.

When I first invested in Altyn (long before it was Altyn) it was essentially an optionality play on the price of gold. More recently I invested for similar reasons - gold is strengthening and the asset is in the ground gaining value even if nothing was none (and with the activity of the last few years it would be fair to assume that nothing much was being done).

However, Altyn is starting to move towards the point where the valuation can be assessed based on the production and the information coming from the company is beginning to support that concept.

The latest RNS has told us two things - that ore has been mined at a rate of 600k tonnes per year in April and May and that the 'gold recovery grade' is improving. Now, the latter has not been quantified so it is difficult to factor that into any calculation so let's just consider the ore improvement. If we make the leap of faith that this continues into June then that will be 150k tonnes. Keeping all things equal apart from this and comparing it to Q1 production we get a Q2 number of 5457 oz. With gold averaging above $1700/oz for the quarter so far that would imply revenues of around 5457*1700 = $9.277m. More than double Q1 and a level that should be profitable given the level of cost cutting that has gone on in recent years.

The really interesting thing is that the focus going forwards is likely to be on grade in addition to providing the raw material to fully utilise the processing facilities and that the equipment received and on order should help to optimise grade and further boost production. Remember that the ore reserves are at a grade of 3.61g/t. At a recovery rate of 83% this is twice the grade currently being processed and shows that the production potential is as much as 82k oz.

The fact that they are achieving a 600k tonnes run rate at this stage (far ahead of plan) suggests that we may not have to wait for full utilisation as long as we thought. At that point we can start to think of the 100k run rate and beyond. When that it, I don't know, but I would expect it to be long before 2025.

I am not sure that most people appreciate the extent of KSK. BKM is the most visible aspect but only a small part. There must have been $100m+ spent on this so far and they have only scratched the surface.

I should point out that the hedge was rolled over for more than one quarter so the company had full exposure to the gold price at the time but the price of gold has remained stubbornly high so they are closing the hedge now. It is a short term issue but obviously one that puts people off.

The hedge was put in place to guarantee repayment of a significant amount of debt as well as being a requirement for part of the debt package. That said, it did appear to be extended beyond what was really required which turned it into a more speculative punt on the gold price.

I agree. I think the whole KSK contract here is amongst the prospective in the world. ARS have only scratched the surface so it would be a shame to sell the lot. Actually, it would be more than a shame. I have been waiting to find out what is in some of the targets for so many years that my hair has gone grey. Particularly Baroi.

I use HL for my SIPP. I only ever trade online.

There is a market saying 'up by the stairs, down by the lift'. Things tend to rise more slowly than they fall.

Ah, sorry to hear your news Pdub. Stay strong!

Absolutely agree faramog. Except for the very last bit. Ultimately I believe that a company has to provide a path to dividends even if it is way down the line.

This is a tailings stockpile though which will result in certain costs being incurred, so I suspect that this grade is viable.

If we do see a significant uptake in VRFB there is likely to be a huge increase in demand for Vanadium so all sources will be welcome.

It's a traders plaything at the moment. Or at least it should be when the published spread is reduced. The death spiral loan notes will make traction virtually impossible from here when they can convert at a 35% discount to VWAP.

"I just dont get what his end game is other than use this as free income over and over"

Hmmm. What could it be???

That is terrible. The subscription price is bad enough (but, given the recent rise, explainable although the reason for that rise.....) but the loan notes are really poor. I don't think that I have ever seen a 35% discount for a VWAP conversion price. Death spiral+++. Look at the impact to the shares in issue.

Hamill23,

It is difficult to suspend something that has never happened. I would certainly agree that the whole dividend thing was handled badly. There was definitely a sense that a maiden dividend would be announced but in the end the dividend 'policy' merely said at some point a proportion of the free cash flow would be distribute. Now, considering the price of Vanadium collapsed around then and the company is still in the process of investing greatly to move towards its vision to become 'vertically integrated', there is no free cash flow to distribute - they feel that better things can be done with their cash. They may be right (and in the current environment the 'may' should really be 'definitely') but the whole dividend saga was rather disappointing at the time.

I would add that there are certainly reasons to be critical of the company (timely communication being the obvious one) but the two red flags highlighted here are not amongst them.

Simpy Wall Street is just generated from information that it can publicly access. There is no guarantee that the underlying data is accurate (it frequently isn't when I have looked further into these things previously). If you know the company well then you will understand the reality of the situation (e.g. director's share awards) and the reason for dilution when it has come (they actually don't dilute much at all unless there is a strategic opportunity where it makes sense to do so). I don't completely dismiss Simply Wall Street but I would ensure that I knew the facts before taking the analysis at face value.

For anyone using these sources of information to determine when to buy and sell shares, I recommend leaving your money in a bank!

It's incredible but the activity is mainly with the May futures that expire shortly. June futures for WTI are still around $20. Absolutely nobody wants to take delivery if oil at the moment but if you can store a couple of million barrels in your backyard, you might make a killing!