Member Info for Daisan

I’ve always liked Yamana but haven’t kept up with it over the last couple of years so confess that my view is out of date!

It is a bit of a curate’s egg but in the context of the market capitalisation it is difficult to believe that it won’t be well received. The bulk of the price is in shares in the new entity which could either be construed as ‘jam tomorrow’ or providing continued exposure to the asset.

I confess that a part of me is very disappointed that KSK is being sold at all. Very little has been properly explored and I feel that I will never find out what the likes of Baroi could contain. But in the context of ARS it is hard to see that this isn’t the right way forwards.

People will definitely get burned on GGP.

I would like to have done so but, sadly, I haven't. There are also 1m and 250k sells that I would include. It feels like there have been quite a number but my perception of how many may not coincide with the reality.

It would be great if BMN were to become as overpriced as GGP is!

I believe that the ‘uranium’ classification is due to confusion with Bannerman Resources, an Australian listed Uranium explorer that goes under the ‘BMN’ ticker symbol on the ASX. (Apologies if this has already been discussed).

The main difference between Q2 and Q1 was the ore mined which is a direct result of the new equipment. Some of the other equipment recently purchased should also start to address the grade and it is there that the real improvements in production should come in. Or at least that is the theory.

Q2 was frustrating from a point of view that sums up ALTN - ‘scheduled’ maintenance on the mill ensured that the greater ore mined was not reflected in ore milled and, hence, gold produced. Of course, we were not aware of this schedule in advance. Additionally revenue was flat because not all the gold was sold in the time frame. This does mean, however, that Q3 gets a head start.

ALTN remains a tempting investment because the current market cap. probably only reflects the value associated with current production given the gold price. The processing facilities suggest more is possible, the potential grade even more and the size of the asset deserves a lot more. And then there is Teren-Sai.

I think that it should be clarified that it does not take a lot of investment from here to go above 45k oz. What it takes is an improving grade and to fill the plant. The equipment has been purchased to address both of these elements and the plan is to gradually move to higher grade ore.

Consider that reserves are over 3g/t. At 3g/t filling the plant equates to annual production of 68k oz.

Moving to 1m tonnes processing plant is not scheduled to take a lot of investment and this level together with the reserve grade of 3.61g/t equates to annual production of over 96k oz.

It is the move to 2m tonnes processing capability that will require more significant investment.

A focus on grade will make a huge impact on the production profile.

Ha! Great minds Olderandwiser!

Not sure whether Putin's daughter is a suitable test subject for what Ovoca are supplying!

I would add that it feels strange for me to be considered a cheer leader. My nickname was 'eeyore' because I was almost the gloomy, cautious one about everything!

I don't think that they will be able to self fund the move to 2m tonnes at the processing plant. Nor would it be desirable. If this gold bull market has legs (and I believe it does) then they should be pushing to maximize the opportunity and expand more quickly. If the gold price pans out the way I expect it to over the medium to long term (I believe in the short term there may well be challenges) then funding is unlikely to be an issue.

But they first need to show that they can fill the current plant effectively.

Spike501,

Your post actually agrees with what I stated as the long term objective plus a bit for Teren-Sai. 2m tonnes at the reserve grade should get production up to these levels.

I am not saying that this is coming any time soon (the latest $10000/oz target I have seen is talking about over the next 10 years). But that is their stated plan.

Do I think that they are going to do it? Well, like you I would like to see them produce at a rate of 25-30k oz first as well as improving grades and filling the plant. Until then the jury is out.

With no further gold price improvements ALTN has the resources available to easily sustain 200-300k oz production per year and achieve a market capitalisation $500m+. To be honest, with Teren-Sai there is the potential to double that but, say, 250k oz should be possible. But it will require investment beyond internal cash generation. With gold market strength they should be able to fund that with mainly debt so I am expecting little dilution from here.

However, ultimately the valuation depends on your view of what happens to the gold price in the future. If you believe that it is headed for $10,000/oz as a number of commentators are saying (and they are not all nut jobs either) then achieving 250k oz production will result in a much higher valuation.

In the meantime we may well have to contend with a period of gold weakness.

So you've sold some and put it into something that will likely mirror the price 90% of the time?

bald_eagle,

Yes, I am aware how hard the winters are there but I am still in early summer mode! Especially as children have just broken up (admittedly, you wouldn't notice a lot of difference this year).

They have made effort to ensure that they can operate to some extent during the winter so we should see improvements across the year, although Q1 is always likely to be the weakest production quarter.

Looking forward (well, back) to Q2 production numbers (assuming they provide them), their RNS on 9th June stated:

"an annualised monthly run rate of ~600kt/year being achieved in April and May" and
"Gold recovery grades are also improving" and
"reduced grade dilution"

So, assuming that the run rate continued into June, that recovery is roughly 83% and, hopefully, grade returns to 2g/t, this would equate to 8k oz gold production in Q2. If grade remained at 1.5g/t (as in Q1) then production would be 6k oz. In either case it should be a significant improvement on Q1, although I would be disappointed with anything less than 6k oz.

This does, of course, assume that the information provided is accurate.

"Winter is coming"?!?

You are either the life and soul of the party (not) to be saying that in July or you have been watching too much Game of Thrones!

Really? This has been done to death on here. Unfortunately despite VRFB's undoubted advantages in long duration, stationary energy storage, Lithium has much greater market presence and awareness which is very difficult to shift without a great deal of time, effort and money.

There are bitcoin (and ether) trackers I know of that can be held in a SIPP.

BIT-XBT and BIT-XBTE track bitcoin and are traded on the Stockholm market. Similarly ETH.XBT and ETH.XBTE track ether. Held in Krone and Euros. I don't hold either currently but they can be bought on HL.