Member Info for Daisan

As much as I like Ariana it would be wrong to say that they are producing considerably more gold than Altyn. They only own half of Kiziltepe so the production profile is actually pretty comparable. Altyn has much larger resources and would do even if Salinbas delivered what we hope, although if they start getting Hot Maden style intercepts then that would make a material difference.

Altyn have a lot to prove and the execution risks are obvious but if they get it right then this will outperform all the other gold producers on LSE.

They would only require $100m if they wanted to take this beyond 100k oz. The asset justifies it. Indeed, the two assets could likely support 300k+ per year.

The plan to 100k oz was due to take around 3 years. History suggests with Altyn that this may be overly optimistic.

True but it's pretty obvious which are buys and which are sells.

I think that the sells and buys are very clearly differentiated and I see no reason to attempt to suggest otherwise. The price is currently acting as anticipated.

Gregpeck7,

I don't disagree that it should be worth over 1p now but this is the market and it will frequently over and undervalue things. The significant thing is the trend and there is evidence suggests that this is changing. It will get to higher levels but it could do with the nudge of production news. Get that and the market will then start to price in the asset which is greater than most gold miners on the LSE.

I think yesterday was essentially an indicator. Without news such a move is unsustainable but the market was suggesting that a change of trend is on the line. If you look at the chart it is essentially back testing the breakout. If this is successful then I believe that a strong move up is on the cards. Either way, the potential fundamentals are extremely compelling.

I have previously suggested that a long term target of 8p is achievable based on similar producers and an established production rate of 100k oz per year (so a few years hence). There are likely to be many stopping points along the way but the one I believe is most interesting is 3p. Those who know the history will be aware of the significance of that figure so what happens then will be intriguing. I don't doubt that it will get there otherwise I wouldn't be here!

The spread is typically increased on these companies when the market makers are not sure which direction the market is likely to take it or they do not have the correct position to satisfy the market demand (or otherwise). As such, this morning's action was probably not particularly representative of a longer term trend turn. I think that we need to wait for that to be confirmed. If we see the spread remain relatively tight on a sharply rising price then I think that we can be reasonably certain that the market has turned for sure.

My sympathies to anyone who bought high today. I suspect that it is a little too early for that but I am reasonably confident that the risk is considerably reduced to an extent where the share price will move well above 1p on evidence of production increases. Just keep in mind that the company is not particularly informative!

The share price is never going to be directly correlated to the price of Vanadium. I tend to think of these things as simple harmonic motion - the movement one way goes on for longer than the force applied but eventually the pull will cause it to change direction. This works both up and down.

The market will take time to adjust to a different outlook here so people shouldn't expect a rapid sustainable rise until we get further confirmation that the money from the loan is being applied effectively and is resulting in an increase in production. The quality of the asset is indisputable and the money is available. What remains to be overcome is execution risk and this will only be clarified via updates to the market.

If you look at previous development plans and reports you will be able to see the timescale for delivering 100k oz. The aspect required was always funding. However, it would certainly be nice if the management could be more forthcoming with news on their revised plans and confirmation on new equipment ordered, etc.

The processing plant is capable of operating at much greater levels than it currently undertakes - 800-850k tonnes per year should be achievable without further investment although it will require further development to achieve 100k oz (to approx. 1 mtpa).

The loan should be used for more equipment to deliver ore to the processing plant. At the same time grades should improve and it is this combination that will deliver the target annual production.

It is a buy but I am not sure that £1000 trade is worth discussing!

Whilst I agree that a quarterly production report would have been nice there is actually no obligation to produce one and the company has for a few years. Given that we are looking forward to an increase in production on the back of the new equipment and the new investment, it would seem to make sense to start releasing these reports to encourage investors.

I haven't seen any drill results that have been good grades. Rock chip samples are often misleading.

You may be right in terms of a short term technical bounce but long term the company has to deliver on projects that appear marginal currently. Now, it is possible that there is a big porphyry out there (it is common to have low grade material close by a deeper, higher grade bulk deposit) but I am not sure that the company will find it before people stop being willing to stump up.

I would disagree with only one aspect of this. The grades are well below average.

If it does get to 100k oz per year then I would expect the market capitalisation to be quite a bit more than AAZ's current market capitalisation based on a higher production rate and the fact that ALTN has MUCH greater gold reserves and resources. So, let's say £200m which would equate to a share price of about 8p. That would be based purely on operational improvements. Add a gold bull market and who knows?

Awful price for a raise.

Vauch,

I don't see this as inconsistent. The share price will react to a Vanadium price trend, as we have seen both on the way up and on the way down, but doesn't tend to follow exactly on a daily basis. It is too early to determine whether this is a trend change although it looks promising.

Badly timed post! I would love to know who is selling at what has been a strong support level when Vanadium is showing tentative signs of stabilising and the company is developing at quite a pace.

So currently we have the lowest prices of the day are buys. Ridiculous to say the least.