RE: PANR15 Jan 2026 14:18
MMmmmmmm, now 5% CoS
Oak Securities, a research broker for Pantheon Resources (PANR), assigns a 5% chance of success to the potential for a commercial outcome from the Dubhe-1 well's current operations.
Context of the 5% Chance of Success
Valuation Model: The 5% figure is a "risked" chance of success that Oak Securities has included in its target share price for Pantheon Resources. The broker believes that any successful development beyond this low probability would result in a massive increase in valuation. The full, "unrisked" success-case value is estimated at 110.7 pence per share for the Ahpun field alone, compared to a risked target price of 28.0 pence per share (as of January 8, 2026).
Reasoning: The low chance of success (reduced from an earlier 25%) was assigned after the well was unable to establish a commercial oil flow during initial cleanup in late 2025. The well had not recovered enough of the injected stimulation fluids to determine commerciality at that time.
Future Operations: The current hope for a better result lies with a planned pressure buildup test and continued production testing scheduled for the spring, which could change the outlook for the Ahpun field.
Overall Outlook: Oak Securities maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Pantheon Resources, viewing the potential upside from both the Ahpun and the super-giant Kodiak discoveries as potentially "transformative" for the company in 2026, despite the high risk associated with the immediate Dubhe-1 well outcome.
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