Member Info for dai2belts

They teach this on trading(grooming) videos

https://invst.ly/183ybg

Cleverly Orchestrated just like the No rig update...

He1 led the market to believe Nobles rig was an option if the Moroccan rig fell through, all just 1 trading day before a purchased rig arrived on site with a convoy of drilling gear..Weeks to organise

They advised of the raise in the same update they identified the sweet spot, after incorrectly stating Tai was fully funded, and Itumula funded, so the reason to inform a raise was due.. Nothing was guaranteed but it was an opportunity to take the MC down and create maximum upside.. If some PI made £10k become ~£140k, the smarts must have made millions.. £200k could have become £3m

Real following by the city, forward selling the placing, hoovering up heavily discounted shares, and letting the stock fly sucking in the traders during operations, while slaughtering the LTH ...They are probably selling high during times of no activity as they know the price will drift, and the NOMAD probably has to keep his bank updated...

MM will have a book of cheap shares ready for the step out well lol

It's a real money spinner.... $2.3m loss through exchange even ASDA's travel money are into it

Mmmmmm, looks like that full $8.2m its assigned to the US project, I think they also suggested that there were no cash projections included for the US in the projected 12 months of being funded...

Said no intention to issue new shares in the next 3 months, questions suggested 3 months up to April ..

Mentioned it would cost $75m-$100m , and mentioned 25-30 wells, ...

I guess they are assuming a 100% discovery rate, as at the moment they have a 25% rate, 3 Tai wells and Itumbula..

With a 50% success rate they would need to drill 50-60 wells

At the moment $3m to take a well into production would be cheap, so adding the plant I think they have really underestimated costs..

As for asset/project based funders, surely they would want to see a serious of successful wells before advancing too much cash, so you would think He1 would be proving up their assets in 2025 with the drill which would also support resource estimates.....

US, they are suggesting 15 wells will produce $2m/year over 5 years to He1 including Co2, so have raised $8,2m to possibly gain $10m over 5 years.. As for revenue in 2025, they said the 1st 5 wells would fund the next 9 wells, so maybe not $2m for a year or two...

It all suggests the need to raise for a step out well from Itumbula

Would not answer how much cash the company had...just estimate how long it would last under current activity levels..

asked about funding options, never mentioned Jersey cash box :)

Interesting, rumours of share price manipulation question at AGM....

Chairman took the question... "they are not aware of any illegal manipulation". lol

MM, NOMAD and company broker are all part of the same company, .... MM with inside info....

https://youtu.be/kz5ETYz348U?t=2979

AGM 16th Dec. 2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kz5ETYz348U

After-hours RNS

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TM1/holdings-in-company-directorpdmr-shareholding-leaz76gxspvhk8q.html

Last year exchange movements cost the company US$2.3m, thats a lot of money for a company with no revenue, it accounts for about 20% of the losses....Somebody is doing well arranging that for them

Lol. well caught twice by the BOD...very expensive..

Every time they dilute your investment shrinks, and at the moment there is little known about this discovery, especially the likely revenue..

Not sure any re-rate on the ML will hold since they don't have a traditional style gas play, since the gas needs exsolving from water, and there is no measurable reservoir. Two locations and no reservoir increases the risk the other assets in the portfolio don't hold much gas. Luckily Nobles discovery has gas in the crest so there is still potential, but it's a different play type which He1 probably don't have in Rukwa..

Then even when production starts it may be transformational for the company but not enough to support the share price.. The choke diameter used for the flow rate of the water was no more than a domestic water pipe.. I guess the source of this water will have to be considered especially if it affects the local water table, or could dry up seasonally so may take some extra time, but there have been little details,, So thats all speculation probably nonsense.

The AGM should be about presenting all you need to know. The feasibility study should be used to attract investors but it is hidden from the PI, so little is revealed, you don't have a clue what has been presented to support that ML..

They don't have much planned for next year looking at the presentation, ?

Markets got wind both Kev and I have a position in Zephyr, down 6%....

Worker rig on site to prep for drilling rig

https://x.com/ZephyrEnergyPlc/status/1869638827083743353

@McNol

Next raise, on past form they may justify avoiding an EGM by claiming it would take too long,

That last AGM, where they would not answer the financial questions, when a raise was questioned discussion was included how He1 would like to include the PI..

The one placing where the PI could buy, the allotment was so small the window closed within a few hours, and was only offered by few brokers, . Not a serious effort by He1

There is no cash balance given, a June 30th balance would have probably included the $10.2 EWT raise, buts its use for the next financials , its likely spent as another raise was needed..

plus or minus 12 months is vague, could mean 6 or 3 especially above current activity levels.

At present they are doing very little, while typically an explorer would be planning on growing their resource base through exploration drilling when the season arrives... Its unlikely they have the money to drill and test a single well next year and fund current company commitments

Summary

• Loss for year – US$11m

o Impairments – US$5.6m

o Exchange movements - US$2.3m

o G&A – 5% increase over prior year

• Cash raises

o December 2023 – US$7.7m ITW-1

o February – US$5.9m working capital

o June – US$10.2m EWT

o August – US$8.2m US project

Fully funded at present level of activity and current circumstances for +/- 12 months

@McNol

So from the latest updates how much cash do to they have to last this next 12 month, for which I assume there will be no drilling ? You must know that if they are being open, but its not in the AGM presentation ?

They are not going to tell you they are not going to vote, but it may turn out true.. Last time they revoked those resolutions it was to appease investors after poor performance on their behalf...

What they have done is remove the thought of a surprise raise, just like the last time the LTH were confident an EGM would be held to vote in any raise, there was a surprise raise with no voting...Jersy cash box,, so people got caught out.

Check the RNS updates, there is a statement saying Itumbula was funded, published after Tai reached TD in the financial update. That is probably why the NOMAD advised them to announce in advance funding was needed. But after that they attempted to presented the June 30th cash balance, then later talked about contingency they might need ensure they could COMPLETE drilling Itumbula.. All while they did'nt have enough cash to drill and remain a going concern.. So instead of remaining quiet they mislead people, some adding funds as the the price dropped, probably while the institutes forward sold ahead of the placing

When DM was running the show any stretching of facts supported a higher sp, so protected the share holder.. But this lot have so far worked it to the benefit of the institutions with hugely discounted placings, and plenty suggestions of forward selling.. If you are savvy trader you are onto a winner, but if a holder that does not trade you are playing with the wolves..

At one time , the MM, NOMAD, and company brokers all worked for the same financial institute..

The 1st time I simply followed a tipster they were long gone while I held the bag, and now its worth considering selling it has been suspended.. Just my luck

But If I blindly followed you I would probably treble my gains.. :)

Its already up about 50% in a month, roughly 14p to 21p

Thats a retro classic :)

@Kev, worth watching now, could be Blue Star have done what He1 did to its original LTH, and there won't be any revenue for a while...

that statement in He1 presentation, " funded for +/- 12 months". Plus or Minus rather than Up To. obscure or what ?

@McNol, Res 1 , to review accounts, at the AGM did they discuss the accounts or avoid doing so..?

I remember a recent AGM, was same year Tai overrun, they kept refusing to answer financial questions, at the same time presented the June 30th figures, so presented a healthy cash balance. They were broke, and thats why they refused to answer questions...

Then if I recall correctly at the last AGM Ian Stalker presented they pulled the share allotment and pre-emption resolutions. That followed with a Jersey cash box raise, that bypassed voting and those resolutions

So be on your guard as the company comes 1st, we are just pawns when times get tough

EOG down 7% on no trades ??

Mmmm, seems a pause, then Ask increased and a few buys appear.. Must be plenty of stock out there with the vol traded last few days ?

A few more runs like that before a successful Glencore trial and this could get you a nice profit