Member Info for daft63

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2019/03/268051/king-mohammed-vi-macron-psa-plant-kenitra/amp/

Great post! Egypts gas potentials are huge, and it needs to find markets for it to become a stable exporter, which will help develop its gas infrastructure. Good news is always welcome..

https://uk.investing.com/equities/sea-dragon-energy-inc-historical-data?cid=980198

If you want bespoke dates type in as req, also available for tsxv.

As I despair with this SP, its misshapes and broken budget assortment for the near term, but clarity will return as will the hobnobs!

So if you assume that every trade is a sell, which clearly is not the case, but 0.25 % volume drops 10% value, so selling 5mill shares would make the company valueless. Totally corrupt madness!

Even Malcys calling the market ignorant now!

Im not capable of offering an answer to your last question other than a steady stream of sellers from the TSX and a total lack of buyers. Volumes have been very poor for long time, a failure to attract new investors means that every time a seller appears, the price plummets! Its this failure to attract that mystifies, as most can see the opportunity, but this is aim, anything can and does happen.

The only way a lowball takeover can succeed is if the market has been ignorant to the value on offer, surely? The present volumes dont indicate any accumulation is taking place, but once delisting from the TSX is completed next month we may see a surge in demand. I will be gutted if it goes cheap, but with whats on offer it must be tempting to grab it now before the snowball effect makes it too expensive to acquire. Its possible that the intention is just to allow the 2 main holders to increase to threshold levels, thus reducing freefloat availabilty. Who really knows but as you say it should be much clearer by midsummer.

Some great posts on both sides of the debate, its easy to be frustrated with the SP, I think we all are, but Aim shares dont make sense, they follow the trendy set, chasing dreams till the fashion changes. Sdx is not of this ilk, its a real company with actual assets. Now whilst some may be fed up with cries of patience, lets look at the realities other than the sp, ....... Progress in Morocco is dependant on the customers coming onstream, as long as we have the gas to fill demand, it would be pointless to spend on Capex until its required, and as long as we can locate and target a continuing supply to meet demand, then our limited cash is best spent elsewhere as options to sell the gas are limited to our customer base, at the moment. If in future we find substantial deposits surplus to that demand, then maybe we may look at other options available to export the gas to other locales, but for now, with limited funds, the best path is being followed. NW Gemsa has 5 years left, it requires minimal Capex to maintain an income that assists in other areas of development, when it ceases to be profitable we just hand it back and walk away, perfect. Meseda is in development and as such has required money to increase production, new finds at Rabul have helped secure this ramp up, and even with the poor returns it still adds to the coffers.
Which brings us to South Disouq, which when we listed was just a paper asset, 1st drill was less than 2 years ago, production to start up within 4 months. My figures for income at the $2.85/mcf rate are between $14m pa and $17m pa clear of opex, depending on 50 or 60mmcfd rates. More targetted drills are planned, and the potentials offer multiples of initial production rates at very low Capex and opex expenditures. This field alone offers SDX an opportunity to generate vast sums for numerous years and once initial production starts, then it can all be self funded over the next few years, a situation other companies can only dream of.
Planned Capex for 2019 is estimated at $36m, I estimate income of circa $56m, so we enter 2020 with about $20m more than we have at present, but beyond 2020 with continued success at the drillbit, Capex will be a fraction of incomes. Look elsewhere, try and find better places to make money if you wish, should we have traded this one, no doubt about that....with hindsight. But dont be so shortsighted that you believe SDX is not moving forward, dont fool yourselves into believing that patience is not rewarded, the facts are there for all to see and if this company is taken private, like some believe may happen, then it will be because of its potentials and the ignorance of the market to recognise investment value! atb

Ogrod, a superb article may have mentioned that SDX is the only company supplying piped gas, at rates that are 4X+ the going international cost, that these customers sign up for 5 year fixed priced terms. A superb article would have stated the only other gas solution is bottled @ $18/mcf so SDX option is great value, it may have talked of the huge investments made to infrastructure to attract foreign companies to build in free trade areas, who require a secure energy solution that fits their needs. It could have quoted the rising demand in areas like Kenitra, that SDX are in pole position to fill those demands at $100m pa clear profits if they find the gas to compress the pipeline. This was not an article on SDX it was a briefing on the larger scene in Morocco, Tigris took issue with it because of simple errors, I took issue with it because its errors and lack of basic research made it feel phoned in, an article that neither informs nor serves its purpose, it wont excite further investigation of the reader. Any mention by Forbes should be useful, but I fear this skimmed summary is not of much benefit. As for being an unsettled trader, you couldnt be more wrong, Tigris and Shakey can speak for themselves, I wish Id traded it!

Forbes probably sent a junior anal ist, on the Morocco jolly, who wrote a poorly researched mismatched summary, confused by the bullshit put out by numerous flag waving execs, still drunk and stoned from the previous night, head still wobbly from bellydancers and hookah bars. The good gigs are Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Asia. Maybe didnt even attend and had it phoned in from a local expat who runs a "Consultancy". Think Aid worker, war correspondant or Embassy Liason of new age generation, think Bloomberg specialist doing a "foreigner"whilst on a respite break from the DRC, Fluffing the facts but selling the dream. CNNs got away with it for decades!

I personally have no problem with Shakeys viewpoint, and its good to have diverse opinions here. Its easy to see why the SP has dropped, its called lack of demand, caused by a combination of a need for fast returns through in and out trading and some poor promises of time schedules and reserves statements. Nobody here knows for certain how much is where, we have not been updated for quite sometime. Add to that concerns over Capex and the inconsistancy of POO, and it drives sentiment down. Ive been here since day 1 but should have traded it at peak points and got back in cheaper, I didnt because Im daft. But Im also confident about our CFOs ability to achieve whilst balancing the books, with $36m Capex this year we should emerge with $20 clear ish, and with more of the same it makes for good long term investing stategy. Because of the potentials available getting SD online was always going to be a milestone, but the self funded development of this field alone could be enough to generate $2billion plus, so if its slow and steady with the occasional short delay I have zero problems. Rather that than debt and dilution, or total fantasy, SDX is moving forward, maybe not at the speed some may want but its a steady ship in a rough sea. Shakeys frustration at the SP is allowed, in fact I share it, but he sees what we all see here, potential, ability and future riches! atb

Would a ball on the snow be better than a nob on the hob?

Who knows? We do know what may lay in SD and how much Morocco could offer, some IIs are prepared to put up and wait it out, some demand faster returns, its easy to see we are moving closer to incomes that cover Capex ++. If playing the long game, the snowball is still at the top of the hill.

Mr B and Shakey, I totally get it, nobody could have forecast this position after such drilling results, it seems the forecasted Capex is keeping people cautious. My own opinion is that I prefer to be with a company that delivers, maybe not exactly on time, but does achieve its ambitions whilst keeping within budgets. So many have great pipedreams, never progress and rack great debts and dilutions. I do believe the tsx delist may help reduce the freefloat in the long run. Get SD online and Morocco at 10mmcf/day and we have approx $40-45m pa clear just from fixed price income, leaving the oil assets on top, we know the potentials available so its just a waiting game, munching budget biscuits, taking the scenic route. atb

Obviously minus fixed opex costs which will also be tax deductable.

Hello folks back again, had a great break away from it all, some good posts of late! However I do wonder whether those who are making estimates for SD income are taking into account the 25% cost recovery clause, giving SDX 55% tax free of a quarter of all revenue. If so I apologise but I calculate this part of the revenue to be worth $7-8.5m pa alone with a further $9 -12m coming from the taxable portion. I may have it wrong but thats how I see it. Atb

Hi folks, just thought Id check in, still on a wonderful honeymoon. The delist makes sense for one reason other than cost savings, TSX caps shareholdings at 20%, whereas as as AIM only major shareholders can hold up to 30%, somebody correct me if Im wrong, but that would allow our 2 big holders to take up more of the freefloat. Time will tell! See you in a weeks time. Atb.

We are all guilty of wanting it all now, when SDX listed and for a few months after its Mcap was £14m, just over 2yrs later and look where we are, yes the SP is poor, the interest and volumes match it, but the growth achieved and the potentials available are real, not pipedreams as with so many others. Morocco at pipe capacity would give $65m pa, $110m pa under compression. SDs 2Tcf+ is worth fortunes even at the poor rates expected, thats without the 2 producers we started with that got us here. To convert potential to reality takes time, money, planning and some luck, it needs to go your way. Give this the same timeframe again and it will deliver, its not easy to be sitting on a loser, as some will be, but we are not looking at a megadream here, we are looking at dozens of finds that take time and money, but deliver great cost /reward ratios. SD may be on tap in 5 weeks, it may be longer, but then the biggest hurdle is crossed, it will start to give returns, they may not seem much, but sdx will have taken it from nothing to producing in less than 2yrs, the volumes are immense, so will be the rewards eventually. At some point others will see whats been clear to many here for a long time.
Let me be the first to wish everyone all the best for the festive season, I know its early but I will be off the grid from Monday till mid Feb, 10 week honeymoon, so have a great time all, family and friends should be our priorities all year long, but especially at this time. Eat drink and be merry folks, especially you Mr B!

@Matchmade is quite correct. According to the press release in late August we had Capex of $27.7m to be spent in 2H 18, broken down as $1.6m in NWGemsa, $0.6m in Meseda, $16m at SD, $3m at SRM1, and $6.5m in Morocco. Now we can expect SRM1 costs to have increased, maybe by a lot, so its easy to see why its a juggling act for our CFO. Q3 Poo will have helped, but right now our oil incomes are down by 25% compared to Q3, but that may be offset by the 5800bopd figure PW has quoted of late. We may be"cash rich" but that money all has a destination planned, helping to put in place future incomes. Instead of concentrating on any particular set of figures, its best to look at the bigger picture, are we achieving our goals? There comes a time in the not too distant future where the income overtakes the planned Capex, at that point the snowball effect kicks in. Atb.